“How is the killing of Suleimani likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond? Who is Ismail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds Force, and how is he likely to approach these challenges and adapt his organization to the changed circumstances?” On May 26, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership. The discussion examined how the killing of Suleimani is likely to change Iran’s Quds Force operations. The discussion was moderated by Hussein Ibish and featured three guest speakers:
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
Joseph L. Votel: General, U.S. Army (Ret.)
Hussein Ibish (Moderator): Senior Resident Scholar, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Structural Changes in the IRGC
Alfoneh outlined various transformations in Iranian foreign policy that Suleimani instituted during his command of the IRGC.
Alfoneh predicts that:
Strategic Impact in Iraq
As the commander of the Quds Force, Suleimani led Iranian extraterritorial military and clandestine operations. Votel believes that the killing of General Suleimani is a defining moment in the US relationship with Iraq in particular. Going forward, the United States must clearly communicate its regional strategy and create better diplomatic channels to counter Iranian influence in Iraq.
Schake stressed that Iranian success in Iraq can be attributed to both Suleimani and Iran’s ability to mobilize its militias. She believes that the United States cannot be seen as a trustworthy partner for Iraq because of its on again, off again support for the Iraqi government. This indecisiveness has led to unsuccessful American foreign policy and increased space for Iranian influence. Iran’s regional campaigns have proven to be quite successful because of Tehran’s ability to nurture long term relationships.
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