Ill-fated

As parliament approved a new Kosovo government today, here are a few thoughts on its fate. It will be led by the LDK and command a narrow majority based on several minority parties as well as several smaller parties that have been in the opposition during the short life of the VV/LDK coalition.

The main purposes of this government are necessarily

1. Get the country as safely as possible through the Covid-19 epidemic;
2. Deal with the negative economic fallout;
3. Respond to the Americans and Europeans, who are demanding re-initiation of the stalled dialogue with Belgrade.

This is a formidable agenda, though Kosovo appears to have escaped the worst of Covid-19. Even a strong, single-party, majority government (with the required minority participation) would have a difficult time meeting the requirements. A multi-party coalition with a thin majority led by the second-place* finisher in the last election is going to have a much harder time. VV (Self-Determination) in opposition will redouble the difficulties again, both in parliament and in the streets.

What this does is to empower the President relative to the government. His machinations with the Americans led to the vote of no-confidence in Albin Kurti’s short-lived rule. The President will now claim the lead role in the talks with Belgrade that Kurti tried to deny him–Thaci surely has no interest in leading on Covid-19 or the economy. The LDK will have promised they will not contest his leadership in the talks with Belgrade, as the price of their getting the prime ministry. The Americans will support him, because they have him over a barrel and willing to do just about anything to avoid indictment by the Special Tribunal in The Hague. Never mind that both the Constitutional Court and the parliament have said that talks with Belgrade should be the responsibility of the government, not the President.

Richard Grenell, the US envoy for the Serbia/Kosovo talks, claims he is only interested in improving economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, not land swaps as I and others have claimed. That is not a credible smokescreen. Already slated for a role in the campaign, he wants to deliver a Rose Garden ceremony for President Trump in the runup to America’s November 3 election. No economic agreement would make the grade. He needs a land swap not only for its own sake, as it reaffirms the ethnic nationalist principles of the Trump Administration, but also because he thinks it can be sold as a big plus for peace and stability in the Balkans, settling an issue neither Clinton could resolve.

That is not true: it will settle nothing. A land swap will sooner or later result in instability in Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and possibly Macedonia. It will also strengthen Russian President Putin’s hand in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But whatever is agreed in the Rose Garden need not last long–just until November 3. The civil aviation agreement Grenell claims to have negotiated has already evaporated, without anyone noticing. The likelihood that neither the Serbian nor the Kosovo parliament will approve a land swap, or that it will be accepted in referenda in either country, won’t matter after the US election. The damage will have been done: wherever the new borders are to be drawn, people will be moving–some voluntarily and some involuntarily–to the “right” side for their own ethnic group. Those who don’t move will be chased out.

So I see this new government–with apologies to Avdullah Hoti–as ill-fated. It will try to open the way to a deal that Kosovans, Americans, and Europeans will regret. The only winners will be Putin and his minions, as well as Serbian President Vucic. By now, even President Thaci should be having his doubts.

Here is the interview I did yesterday with RTK, before parliament approved the new government:

*This originally read “third”-place finisher. That was wrong. LDK came in second. My error. Always check should be my motto!