Bidening their time
Ric Grenell’s today announced Belgrade/Pristina talks in Washington June 27:
Great news! I have received the commitment from the governments of Kosovo and Serbia to temporarily pause the derecognition campaign and the seeking of international memberships in order to meet in Washington, DC at the White House on June 27 for Dialogue discussions. (1/2)
If either side is unsatisfied with the June 27 discussions then they will go back to the status quo after they leave Washington. As we have consistently said, we must first make progress on growing the economies. This is the focus. I look forward to these discussions. (2/2)
If in fact Grenell sticks with mutually beneficial economic measures, I’m fine with this. But Jasmin Mujatovic put it sonorously when he tweeted:
Still, most likely scenario is just a wet-fart failure. Neither Trump nor Grenell have any kind of diplomatic credibility or acumen, it’s an elxn yr in the U.S. & Trump is in dire straits, Kosovo politics are in chaos – hard to see these characters delivering on a real deal.
By which I imagine he means a real deal on key political issues like recognition, exchange of ambassadors, and UN membership. And of course, partition, which the new Kosovo Prime Minister has ruled out of bounds but President Vucic still salivates for.
The suspension of the Serbian de-recognition campaign in exchange for Kosovo’s seeking membership in international organizations is a nothing burger with a tilt towards Belgrade. Suspension of the de-recognition campaign doesn’t mean much if Kosovo is not seeking international memberships, and both are only good to June 27 unless extended.
Notably absent is any European role. This all but guarantees failure, since both Kosovo and Serbia want European goodies for good outcomes. Grenell has terrible relations with the Europeans in general and the Germans in particular. The Americans don’t have much more than a Rose Garden ceremony in the middle of a pandemic with a failed and unpopular US president to offer.
Both Pristina and Belgrade should be wondering whether it would be better to bide their time for Biden, whose odds are looking good, including in swing states (but caveat emptor: there are no guarantees in American elections). A White House ceremony could look much better in 4.5 months.
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It is rarely that perfect conditions for dialogue could be meat. Belgrade – Pristina dialogue goes since 1997, with almost no real breakthrough or tangible results. Many interlocutors tested their negotiation skills. They were coming from from NGO’s, private foundations, US think-tanks, UN (UNOSEK – led by former Finish President Martti Ahtisaari), the EU (EU High Representatives) and nothing substantial happened. Many agreements were signed, and unfortunately very little was implemented for various reasons. More or less the result was – one step forward, two steps back. Why Ambassador Grenell should not be given a fair chance? Let’s wait and judge his performance by accomplishment(s).
Rose Garden Ceremony is a normal follow up of a progress, not a goal by itself. What new elements would former VP Biden bring to the table? What would be added value? Maybe Belgrade – Pristina dialogue would not be very high on his priorities or it would take time to bring the issue to his attention (or maybe he would be dedicated to the dialogue – we just can not know at this point). Even if he would be a perfect interlocutor for a dialogue (with decades of experience in the Balkans), he is currently not around.
From a local, Balkan perspective, one advantage of current dialogue led by Ambassador Grenell is that the U.S. is back in business, after a long time of delegating the problem to Europeans. It is well known fact that things are happening in the Balkans when the U.S. and the EU synchronize their efforts. After all, people from the region need to find and support solutions that would enable them to live in peace and democracy. Outside intervention has limited influence if there is no local political will to do things. Therefore, let’s wait and see – think positive. One of the greatest American national characteristic is to be problem solving oriented and willing to take risks to get things done. In the Balkans one could hear excellent analysis of the problem, but the game stop there, because no one is willing to take a risk to change something. Let’s take American approach this time.
Obviously, one session can not and will not resolve all the issues, therefore negotiation process is needed that would bring some fresh ideas and new approach (if applicable), where the U.S. and the EU should and will play their role. There is a room for everyone. Therefore, both Ambasasor Grenell and Ambassador Laicak deserve a fair chance. Let’s wait and see how they will perform and “judge a tree by its fruits”.