Next weekend the Balkans come to DC
Sunday’s Serbian parliamentary election delivered a resounding landslide to President Aleksandar Vucic, as the main opposition parties decided to boycott. They rightly claimed conditions for free and fair elections did not exist, due in large part to media that are not free and courts that are not independent. I still might have preferred they participate, if only to provide a serious opposition voice in parliament, but that is water under the bridge now.
Vucic, elected to a five-year term in 2017, will stand again in 2022. The opposition is divided, incoherent, and weak. Some are right-wing Serb nationalists indistinguishable from the war criminals of the 1990s who sought to create Greater Serbia by chasing Bosniaks, Croats, and Albanians from their homes in Serb-populated or claimed areas of former Yugoslavia. Some are devoted liberal democrats who want to see equal rights for all citizens throughout the Balkans, justice for the victims of the 1990s, and Serbian membership in the European Union. It will be difficult to unify the Serbian opposition, but partial unification brought down Milosevic at the polls. It could happen again.
Vucic, once a minister in Milosevic governments, enjoys the blessings of the nationalists. He has abandoned the unabashed pro-European stance of his last election campaign and now cozies up to Beijing and Moscow, the former because of its money and the latter because of its weapons and Slavic identity. He has harsh words for Europe, despite its substantial assistance and ongoing negotiations for EU accession, and enjoys a good reputation with the Trump Administration, which holds liberal democracy and the EU in disrepute. Ethnic (white) nationalism the Administration’s only consistent ideology. While the State Department was reserved in its reaction to the parliamentary election, the White House will no doubt greet Vucic warmly next weekend, when he is expected to drop in for talks with Kosovo President Thaci under the aegis of former Ambassador to Germany and former Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell.
Some may still hope Vucic will use his strong political position in Serbia to bite the bullet on Kosovo. His position is so strong that he could survive announcing that Belgrade will recognize its now-independent province, exchange ambassadorial-level representatives with it, and sponsor its UN membership. But that isn’t going to happen because he wants Serb-populated territory in exchange. There is little else he can ask for, as the EU and US have provided Serbia with virtually all the goodies in their pockets. Some think a massive investment program might move Vucic in the right direction, but who has the money for that right now? Grenell says he will focus the talks on economic issues. I hope these will include implementing the many technical agreements Pristina and Belgrade have reached but not implemented, as well as removal of the non-tariff trade barriers that their respective chambers of commerce understand well.
It’s incongruous that Washington is focused on economic issues, which are the natural purview of the EU, while Brussels will be focusing on the bigger political questions, on which it has little purchase. This division of labor is more the result of competition than cooperation. It won’t likely last. Virtually any economic issue can be turned into a sovereignty question. All sovereignty questions have economic dimensions. The US and EU would both do better working together than competing, but that is not possible for the Trump Administration. It loathes the EU, and many Europeans, especially Germans displeased by his tenure as ambassador in Berlin, loathe Richard Grenell.
Expectations for next weekend’s meeting should be minimal, but we should also expect President Trump to try to take credit for what he will describe, if anything happens at all, as a terrific breakthrough, one better than any president has ever previously achieved in the Balkans (never mind the two wars brought to an end during Bill Clinton’s presidency). Exaggerated bluster is Trumps only real talent. It hasn’t been working well lately, because Covid-19, North Korean, Iran, Venezuela, China, and even Russia haven’t been yielding to Trump’s reality show threats. Maybe he’ll have better luck with Presidents Thaci and Vucic, but I doubt it. They both know he won’t deliver on any overblown economic packages and are likely, and wisely, looking past him to the day President Biden takes office.
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As the NYT reported on Sunday, Amb. Grenell “brokered three mini-agreements that he hailed as a breakthrough in restoring transport links between Kosovo and Serbia. But in reality, the two countries signed separate texts with different wording, according to copies obtained by The Times. The deals were not formal ones, but merely letters of intent signed by minor officials. And they duplicated pre-existing transport agreements brokered by the European Union.”
Progress on translating those letters of intent into formal agreements would be a step in the right direction. But, to use a baseball metaphor, that’s “small ball” for a high visibility meeting in Washington, especially on matters which have largely been part of the EU negotiations. Its difficult to imagine any substantive progress on the major issues. What I fear is that Grenell, having raised the stakes for himself and the administration by announcing the Washington talks, will push for a statement that suggests both sides have made substantial progress toward a comprehensive agreement later this year, but without providing any details, some of which might include land swaps. The best outcome would be for the negotiations to make progress on below-the-horizon but important confidence-building economic issues.