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Kosovo needs to hedge

Kosovo prides itself on being the most pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true. Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.

There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude toward the US is equivocal at best.

This week it was revealed that an American prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President Vucic this weekend.

I have nothing against charges for war crimes and crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done (several times).

But this incident confirms what I have been telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo. The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result of American pressure.

The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.

The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game with Kosovo. That’s good.

But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell, formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain, should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to Milosevic’s Belgrade.

If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.