Month: June 2020
Peace Picks | June 29 – July 5
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- WEBCAST | Natural Resources, Sustainable Development, and Peace in Africa | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | Wilson Center | Register Here
In many parts of Africa, conflict, natural resources, governance, development, and peace are inextricably linked. The continent’s rich and diverse natural resources have long been objects of conflict as well as sources of potential and actual development. Most countries depend on their natural resources for local livelihoods, national revenues and export earnings, and foreign exchange. However, exploitation, management (or lack thereof), and competition over these same natural resources has, at times, sparked or sustained devastating conflict. In many resource-endowed, but impoverished local communities the exploitation of natural resources results in the degradation of the environment, and fuels conflict.
This event will examine the intersection of civil society and peacebuilding in natural resource-rich African countries. It will interrogate their roles in community engagement, the promotion of accountability, and development based on inclusive, transparent, and sustainable resource management. In this regard, it will address the following related questions, including: what roles have African civil society groups played in natural resource development and management on the continent? What are some of the major challenges they face, and what lessons can be shared from across Africa in engaging and empowering civil society on this issue? How can governments, private businesses, local communities, and civil society work together to build peace and secure just, inclusive, and sustainable development? Finally, the event will offer policy options for boosting the meaningful inclusion of civil society groups and local communities in transforming natural resource development and management.
Speakers:
Dauda Garuba: Technical Advisor, Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Inititave (NEITI)
Resty Naiga: Lecturer, Department of Development Studies, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Makerere University
Cosmas Milton Obote Ochieng: Director, African Natural Resources Center, African Development Bank
Seydina Ousmame Sene: Senior Economist, Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale (IPAR)
Monde Muyangwa: Africa Program Director , Wilson Center
Cyril Obi: Program Director, African Peacebuilding Network, Social Science Research Council
- Can Cooperation on Missile Defense Avoid a US-China Nuclear Arms Race? | June 30, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Event Here
Despite the U.S. threat to spend China “into oblivion,” Beijing has refused to participate in arms control talks with Washington and Moscow. China categorically rejects the notion that it is arms racing and believes that growing military threats—U.S. missile defenses in particular—demand comprehensive efforts to modernize and enhance its nuclear deterrent capability. A new Carnegie report by Tong Zhao, to be launched at this event, examines the widening perception gap on missile defense and asks what the two countries can do to prevent a nuclear arms race that could undermine global security.
Speakers:
Oriana Mastro: assistant professor at Georgetown University and resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
- The World Order after COVID-19 Forum | Two Day Event: June 30, 2020 11:00 AM – 5:00 PM & July 1, 2020 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The two-day conference will feature a keynote address from former Google CEO and Chairman Eric Schmidt and “A Conversation with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers.” Conference panelists from Johns Hopkins’ ten schools and departments as well as its key programs including the SNF Agora Institute and Applied Physics Laboratory will offer expertise and global insights on preparing for the post-COVID-19 world.
- Where Do Iraq’s Religious and Ethnic Minorities Stand Post-ISIS? | June 30, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:45 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
Six years after the Islamic State’s genocidal rampage across northern Iraq, circumstances for traumatized religious and ethnic minorities remain dire. Thousands remain displaced, unable or unwilling to return to their homes in Nineveh province amid ongoing security challenges and other barriers to their safe return. Meanwhile, new sources of instability in Iraq—including the coronavirus pandemic, a financial crisis, and renewed threats of an ISIS resurgence—have highlighted the fragility of any improved stability in minority-rich areas, as well as the need for ongoing and intensive efforts to facilitate the sustainable return of all displaced communities.
Join USIP as it hosts Assistant Secretary Robert A. Destro from the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL), as well as a panel of experts, for a discussion on the current reality for Iraqi religious and ethnic minorities, the international response in the aftermath of ISIS’s military defeat, and the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the new Iraqi government, and potential early elections.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, United States Institute of Peace
Robert A. Destro: Assistant Secretary for the U.S. State Department Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor
William Warda: Member of the General Assembly and External Relations Committee, Alliance of Iraqi Minorities; and
Director of Public Relations, Hammurabi Human Rights Organization
Susan Aref: Director and Founder, Women Empowerment Organization
Osama Gharizi: Iraq Senior Program Advisor, United States Institute of Peace
Lee Tucker (moderator): Senior Program Officer, Middle East, United States Institute of Peace
- The Rule of Law in Afghanistan | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
As governments face the devastating economic and social effects of the coronavirus pandemic, identifying and addressing rule of law issues related to transparency, corruption, human rights, and the delivery of justice will be paramount to the recovery process. The World Justice Project’s (WJP) new report on the rule of law in Afghanistan presents a unique portrait of the country’s rule of law strengths and weaknesses by using extensive survey data collected from the general public, in-country legal practitioners, and ground-breaking interviews with individuals incarcerated in the Afghan prison system.
The latest edition of this report, which reflects the experiences and perceptions of more than 17,500 Afghans interviewed over five years, presents a comprehensive summary of the rule of law situation in Afghanistan and contains new, in-depth findings on the performance of the criminal justice system.
Join USIP and WJP for an in-depth conversation on the report’s findings, as well as crucial factors for the rule of law in Afghanistan. Panelists will also discuss how the report can encourage data-driven policy choices and guide program development to strengthen the rule of law.
Speakers:
Alejandro Ponce: Chief Research Officer, World Justice Project
Amy Gryskiewicz: Director, Criminal Justice Research, World Justice Project
Abdullah Ahmadzai: Country Representative, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Ghizaal Haress: Ombudsperson, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan
Scott Worden (moderator): Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, USIP
- Government Accountability in the Age of COVID-19 | July 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
The Covid-19 health crisis has been matched by deep challenges related to misinformation, governance and trust. In the absence of effective responses, citizens, civil society groups and public sector reformers are finding creative ways to rebuild the social contract between states and their people. Please join CSIS Project on Prosperity and Development for a unique opportunity to hear stories from the ground in South Africa, Mali, and Nepal about how Covid-19 is affecting government accountability in these countries, what collective efforts to debunk rumors and fight fake news around the pandemic have been taken, and what steps have been taken to tackle corruption.
Speakers:
Romina Bandura: Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, Project on US Leadership in Development, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Cheri- Leigh Erasmus: Global Director of Learning, Accountability Lab
Narayan Adhikari: Country Director Nepal, Accountability Lab
Doussouba Konaté: Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning Officer for Mali, Accountability Lab
- Turkish-Israeli Relations: Prospects for Improved Development | July 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the past decade Israel-Turkey relations have been strained. There have been recent positive signs, however. Israel’s decision not to sign a statement by France, Greece, Cyprus, the UAE, and Egypt condemning Turkey’s actions in the eastern Mediterranean and a tweet posted by Israel’s official Twitter account praising its diplomatic relations with Turkey raised hopes. Turkish analysts saw the moves as a sign of both countries’ willingness to cooperate when it comes to eastern Mediterranean energy but tensions remain.
How does Israel and Turkey’s involvement in Syria and increasing opportunities for economic cooperation affect the prospect of improved bilateral relations? How will Israel’s plans for annexation and Turkey’s public support for the Palestinians affect diplomatic relations? Are there enough incentives to normalize Israel-Turkey relations or will the barriers be insurmountable?
Speakers:
Nimrod Goren: Founder and head of Mitvim, The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Soli Ozel: Senior lecturer, Kadir Has University
Gönül Tol (Moderator): Director of Turkey Program and Senior Fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
- US Strategic Partnerships in the Black Sea | July 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The United States is present in the Black Sea region with three strategic partnerships focused on security with Georgia, Ukraine, and Romania. The strategic partnerships are tailored on the three countries with differing security challenges. While Romania is a NATO member state and a host of US military, Georgia and Ukraine are challenged in their sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, the three countries are brought together by their respective strategic partnerships with the United States, and shared threat perceptions and common security interests for the Black Sea region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a discussion with the Ambassadors of Georgia, Romania and Ukraine to the United States on the importance of US-Black Sea strategic partnerships.
What do the three strategic partnerships entail for national security? How do strategic partnerships and the United States presence impact Black Sea regional security? What are the priorities of US strategic partnerships for future regional security?
Speakers
David Bakradze: Georgian Ambassador to the United States
George Maior: Romanian Ambassador to the United States
Yelchenko Volodymyr: Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States
Iulia Joja (moderator): Senior fellow, Middle East Institute, Frontier Europe Initiative
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Stevenson’s army, June 27
– NYT says Trump administration has been sitting on intelligence report since March that concluded that Russia paid bounties to the Taliban for targeting US troops in Afghanistan. Options discussed, but no action.
– Lawfare has good backgrounder on the laws relating to classified information.
– Iraqi forces are going after some Iran-backed militias.
– DOD has named a new chief of industrial policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 26 afternoon edition
– You don’t have to wait for tomorrow’s WSJ. Already on line are two important stories:
-Administration plans multiple efforts to thwart Huawei.
– China warns US not to cross its red lines.
– A study says giving police leftover military equipment turns them into killers.
– Yes, Biden’s ahead by 14% and leads in the toss up states. But I remember when our Dukakis -Bentsen ticket was up by 17% in August — and lost by 8%. As John Glenn used to say, “There are only two ways to run for office — unopposed, or scared.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 26
– Defense News says there are now 3 military plans for competing with China
– Fareed Zakaria says China is bungling its own foreign policies.
-US military is reducing its Mexican border deployments.
– SAIS Prof Ed Joseph tells sad story of cancelled Kosovo summit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 25
– NYT says the administration wants to end the longstanding practice of informal notification of Congress regarding proposed arms sales and allow more quick sales.
-SecDef Esper, facing real challenges with WH over personnel, has submitted the army colonel’s list with Alexander Vindman’s name on it.
– China sanction bill passes Senate.
– O’Brien hypes China threat.
– Senate version of NDAA has detailed cyber guidance.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Kosovo needs to hedge
Kosovo prides itself on being the most pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true. Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.
There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude toward the US is equivocal at best.
This week it was revealed that an American prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President Vucic this weekend.
I have nothing against charges for war crimes and crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done (several times).
But this incident confirms what I have been telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo. The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result of American pressure.
The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.
The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game with Kosovo. That’s good.
But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell, formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain, should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to Milosevic’s Belgrade.
If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.
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