Month: June 2020
Stevenson’s army, June 17
– WSJ says Trump administration is still working with WHO despite announced US withdrawal.[ Teaching point: throughout Trump’s presidency, he and the WH staff have made announcements that were not followed up with action. They seemed to think that a press release was sufficient. Or a so-called executive order that really only called for an action to be studied. Process matters.]
– Britain is merging its development office with the Foreign Office. [Teaching point: the US has the same longtime tension between USAID, which wants to give aid for developmental goals, and State, which usually wants to add political goals. No easy answers. As JFK said, “To govern is to choose.”]
– CIA hackers got hacked, with enormous damage. [Teaching Point: Hubris is a powerful force in elite organizations. We also have prioritized cyber attack over cyber defense and resilience.]
– Here’s good background on the China-India clash and on the Line of Actual Control. BTW, the deadly fighting was with barbed wire clubs, since firearms aren’t authorized by either side.
– Speaker Pelosi mandates masks in committees.
– My local library system, PG County in Maryland, sent a message yesterday saying that major newspapers and many magazines are now freely accessible online via the library. Your local library might do the same. Check it out.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, June 16
[You’re reading, aren’t you? Actually 2 separate topics. Clickbait 101.]
– FT says US is increasingly viewed as unreliable by its Asian allies.
– Japan drops Aegis Ashore missile defense — too expensive, too delayed.
– North Korea blows up liaison office. Some analysis from Daily Beast writer.
-Unintended consequences: Atlantic article tells how “sex” discrimination was added to civil rights act as a poison pill, a joke, that enabled textualist Justice Gorsuch to support gay rights.
– Trump said US troops would leave Germany. Are they going to Poland?
– Dems have good reasons to oppose DOD policy nominee.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Bidening their time
Ric Grenell’s today announced Belgrade/Pristina talks in Washington June 27:
Great news! I have received the commitment from the governments of Kosovo and Serbia to temporarily pause the derecognition campaign and the seeking of international memberships in order to meet in Washington, DC at the White House on June 27 for Dialogue discussions. (1/2)
If either side is unsatisfied with the June 27 discussions then they will go back to the status quo after they leave Washington. As we have consistently said, we must first make progress on growing the economies. This is the focus. I look forward to these discussions. (2/2)
If in fact Grenell sticks with mutually beneficial economic measures, I’m fine with this. But Jasmin Mujatovic put it sonorously when he tweeted:
Still, most likely scenario is just a wet-fart failure. Neither Trump nor Grenell have any kind of diplomatic credibility or acumen, it’s an elxn yr in the U.S. & Trump is in dire straits, Kosovo politics are in chaos – hard to see these characters delivering on a real deal.
By which I imagine he means a real deal on key political issues like recognition, exchange of ambassadors, and UN membership. And of course, partition, which the new Kosovo Prime Minister has ruled out of bounds but President Vucic still salivates for.
The suspension of the Serbian de-recognition campaign in exchange for Kosovo’s seeking membership in international organizations is a nothing burger with a tilt towards Belgrade. Suspension of the de-recognition campaign doesn’t mean much if Kosovo is not seeking international memberships, and both are only good to June 27 unless extended.
Notably absent is any European role. This all but guarantees failure, since both Kosovo and Serbia want European goodies for good outcomes. Grenell has terrible relations with the Europeans in general and the Germans in particular. The Americans don’t have much more than a Rose Garden ceremony in the middle of a pandemic with a failed and unpopular US president to offer.
Both Pristina and Belgrade should be wondering whether it would be better to bide their time for Biden, whose odds are looking good, including in swing states (but caveat emptor: there are no guarantees in American elections). A White House ceremony could look much better in 4.5 months.
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Iraq under pressure
“While the PMF initially gained widespread popular support among Shias for its role in defeating ISIL, the killing of Suleimani and Muhandis in January and the withdrawal of units associated with Sistani from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in April opened new questions about the future of the PMF and its relationship with both the Iraqi government and Iran.” AGSIW hosted a virtual panel discussion on June 10 examining the future of the PMF and their relationship with the new Iraqi government. The virtual panel was moderated by Ambassador Douglas A. Sillman and featured three speakers:
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute Washington
Michael Knights: Senior Fellow, The Washington Institute
Ambassador Rend Al-Rahim: Co-Founder and President, Iraq Foundation
Ambassador Douglas A. Sillman (Moderator): President, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Iraq is under intense pressure on several fronts
Sillman highlighted various key developments that have occurred within the last year in Iraq. These events have had a strong impact on the future of the PMF.
1. Mass demonstrations against widespread corruption and the lack of governmental services brought down the government of Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi in May of 2020.
2. The coronavirus pandemic has increased stress on Iraq’s already fragile healthcare system.
3. There has been a resurgence in attacks conducted by ISIS, which has begun to reorganize and has launched its most complex attacks in years.
4. Oil prices have plummeted. OPEC has cut Iraq’s oil production quota by one million barrels a day. This has sparked a budget crisis.
5. At the end of 2019, competition between the United States and Iran flared up with increased attacks on US forces, an attempt to sack the US Embassy, and the killing of Quds Force Commander Qassim Soleimani and PMF deputy commander Mahdi Al-Muhandis.
6. Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was elected Prime Minister of Iraq in May of 2020.
The PMF are divided and some imperil the government
Knight believes that the fate of the new Iraqi government under Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and efforts to reform the PMF remain intricately intertwined. Furthermore, Knight classifies the present PMF as a state within a state in control of its own foreign policy. Ultimately, the PMF developed as a security force that drew on opposition elements fighting against the US occupation in Iraq. More recently, the PMF has involved itself in Syria and has fought on the side of the Assad regime. Knight believes that a lack of professionalization and reform within the PMF has resulted in ineffectiveness.
Al-Rahim underscores that the PMF itself cannot be regarded as being a homogenous body. To Al-Rahim, the PMF remains divided between those who owe their allegiance to Iran and those who owe their allegiance to Grand Ayatollah Sistani of Iraq. In regard to the Iraqi population at large, Al-Rahim believes that the Sunni and Kurdish populations favor the continuance of US coalition presence in Iraq. Because the PMF has seized political and economic control of the various areas in which these groups reside, overall distrust has emerged along ethno-religious lines. This polarized environment can be regarded as being a conducive to the reemergence of ISIS.
Iran likes it that way
Alfoneh believes that Iran desires to maintain Iraq in what he views as a “permanent state of crisis” that provides Iran with the ability to achieve its own tactical goals on the ground in Iraq. If Iraq were stable, Iran could not interfere in its internal affairs. Alfoneh believes that Iran utilizes various militias separate from the PMF in the interest of maintaining rivalry and competition between groups.
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Stevenson’s army, June 15
–Iran threatens retaliation if US interferes with tankers to Venezuela.
-At Lawfare, a writer talks about conflict resolution opportunities in Africa.
-Jonathan Swan of Axios details Trump’s loyalty purge across executive branch
– Today, and other Mondays in June, the Supreme Court is slated to release opinions. Follow them on Scotusblog.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | June 15 – 20
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- A Conversation with H.E. Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs | June 17, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the second largest Arab economy- with a burgeoning regional role in the Gulf, the Red Sea and North Africa- the United Arab Emirates is facing a range of domestic and regional challenges, but also opportunities, in light of COVID-19 and the drop in global oil prices. Furthermore, the rise in great power competition, particularly the rising role of Russia and China in the Middle East, makes an examination of US – UAE relations that much more timely and important.
To discuss these important issues and more, the Middle East Institute is glad to welcome H.E. Dr. Anwar Gargash, UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs. Please join us for this timely discussion moderated by MEI President Paul Salem.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul Salem (Moderator) : President, Middle East Institute
H.E. Dr. Anwar Mohammed Gargash: Cabinet Member and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, United Arab Emirates
- COVID in South Asia: Regional Responses | June 17, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In South Asia, diverse, densely situated, and economically precarious populations add further complexity to fighting the coronavirus pandemic. Measures to limit the virus’s spread have spurred massive economic contraction, disproportionately affecting the region’s most vulnerable populations, while recent steps to re-open economies are fueling a rise in cases and risk overwhelming health and governance systems. The crisis has also exacerbated societal fissures and structural problems, including religious, caste, and ethnic divisions, ineffective communication, and political tensions. Amid compounding challenges, how governments respond to the pandemic will have a lasting impact on the region’s stability and the future of its nearly two billion citizens.
Please join USIP and experts from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for a discussion on states’ responses to the coronavirus pandemic across the region and what countries can do to maintain and restore their economies, health systems, and citizens’ trust in elected officials.
Speakers:
Amb. Tariq Karim: Former Bangladeshi Ambassador to the U.S.
Amb. Maleeha Lodhi: Former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. and former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.N.
Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu: Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Alternatives, Sri Lanka
Amb. Arun Singh: Former Indian Ambassador to the U.S.
Tamanna Salikuddin (Moderator): Director, South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Lebanon at a Crossroads: Is Real Reform Possible? | June 17, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Carnegie Endowment of International Peace, Middle East Center | Watch Event Here
Lebanon remains a highly volatile sociopolitical and economic environment, compounded by a crippling financial crisis, a large protest movement nationwide, increasing tension among political and sectarian factions, and a large presence of Syrian refugees. Its vibrant civil society has played a leading role in pushing for reform to address the significant threats facing the country.
While the unprecedented mass demonstrations that began in October 2019 succeeded in pressuring the government of then-prime minister Saad Hariri to resign, they have yet to lead to the radical change that many protestors are seeking. As Lebanon continues to flatten the coronavirus curve and as the country opens up again, the protest movement is largely expected to make a comeback, with protestors again voicing demands for an independent judiciary, accountability, early parliamentary elections, and financial reform—among others.
Speakers:
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Lara Bitar: Founding editor, The Public Source
Alia Ibrahim: Founding partner and chairwoman, Daraj
Jean Kassir: Co-founder and managing editor, Megaphone
- Egypt Faces the Pandemic: Politics, Rights, and Global Dynamics | June 18, 2020 |10:00 AM – 11:15 AM| Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Event Here
In many countries, the pandemic is providing justifications for crackdowns on rights, changes in law, and postponement of elections. What is happening in Egypt? And will the pandemic lead to any changes in its regional and global relationships?
Speakers:
Khaled Mansour: Independent writer and consultant on issues of human rights, humanitarian aid, and development
Mai El-Sadany: Managing director and legal and judicial director, the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy
Amr Hamzawy: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Senior Research scholar in the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Stanford University
- Civil-Military Relations Amid Domestic Crisis | June 18, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:15 PM | Johns Hopkins SAIS | Register Here
The speakers will address the politicization of the U.S. military and urgent issues of civil-military relations in the current environment. With President Trump’s order of the U.S. military and federal law enforcement to Washington DC; the forcible removal of peaceful protestors to secure a photo op with military leaders; and Secretary Esper’s reference to American cities as the “battlespace,” the divide between society and service members has rarely been so stark.
The speakers will also examine the implications of President Trump’s recent actions on U.S. national security, both domestically and abroad. What are the various ways the current situation could play out? What are the medium- and long-term implications on civil-military relations? To what standard must we hold our senior civilian and military officials, as well as our service members?
Speakers:
Eliot A. Cohen: Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS
Mara Karlin: Executive Director, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Paula Thornhill: Associate Director, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
LTG David Barno (USA, ret.): Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Nora Bensahel: Senior Fellow and Visiting Professor, Merrill Center for Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS
- Webinar—The International Monetary Fund’s COVID-19 challenge: A conversation with Geoffrey Okamoto | June 18, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The coronavirus pandemic has plunged the global economy into its worst recession in the past 90 years and has delivered a severe blow to practically every economy in the world.
At this event, Geoffrey Okamoto, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), will discuss how the IMF now views the world economic outlook and how it is adapting its policies to serve best its membership at this challenging time.
Speakers:
Geoffrey Okamoto: First deputy managing director, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Desmond Lachman: Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
- Troubled Waters: the Changing Security Environment in the Black Sea | June 18, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea have entered a new strategic adaptation phase after the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent focus on territorial defense. The last six years have been a challenge in strategic adaptation to new threats and challenges in the Black Sea, an increasingly militarized and volatile security environment. But success in adaptation has been limited by differing threat perceptions among member states, as well as by difficulties integrating Western defense planning. The Middle East Institute (MEI) Frontier Europe Initiative is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss the challenges facing the Black Sea countries in adapting to the new security environment.
What are the main challenges for NATO member states and partners in the Black Sea region? How have NATO member states Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey adapted to increasing militarization and volatility in the Black Sea? What are the main challenges for NATO partners countries Georgia and Ukraine and how are they progressing in Western security integration? Are there lessons to be learned for NATO defense and strategic adaptation in the Black Sea?
Speakers:
Stephen J. Flanagan: Senior political scientist, RAND Corporation
Thomas-Durell Young: Senior lecturer, Institute for Security Governance, US Naval Postgraduate School and Journal of Defense and Security Analysis
Iulia Joja (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, Frontier Europe Initiative
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