Month: June 2020
Stevenson’s army, June 3
– Several former military commanders are criticizing the president’s comments and photo op. Former CJCS ADM Mike Mullen among them. Many also criticize the SecDef and current CJCS.
– NYT has a detailed tick tock of the photo op event.
– Esper says he didn’t know. [But he did talk about dominating the “battlespace” with governors]
– Military.com lists the units in DC area.
In other news, Duterte has changed his mind on US military cooperation.
China is slowing grain purchases.
Russia changes its nuclear policy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Ill-fated
As parliament approved a new Kosovo government today, here are a few thoughts on its fate. It will be led by the LDK and command a narrow majority based on several minority parties as well as several smaller parties that have been in the opposition during the short life of the VV/LDK coalition.
The main purposes of this government are necessarily
- Get the country as safely as possible through the Covid-19 epidemic;
- Deal with the negative economic fallout;
- Respond to the Americans and Europeans, who are demanding re-initiation of the stalled dialogue with Belgrade.
This is a formidable agenda, though Kosovo appears to have escaped the worst of Covid-19. Even a strong, single-party, majority government (with the required minority participation) would have a difficult time meeting the requirements. A multi-party coalition with a thin majority led by the second-place* finisher in the last election is going to have a much harder time. VV (Self-Determination) in opposition will redouble the difficulties again, both in parliament and in the streets.
What this does is to empower the President relative to the government. His machinations with the Americans led to the vote of no-confidence in Albin Kurti’s short-lived rule. The President will now claim the lead role in the talks with Belgrade that Kurti tried to deny him–Thaci surely has no interest in leading on Covid-19 or the economy. The LDK will have promised they will not contest his leadership in the talks with Belgrade, as the price of their getting the prime ministry. The Americans will support him, because they have him over a barrel and willing to do just about anything to avoid indictment by the Special Tribunal in The Hague. Never mind that both the Constitutional Court and the parliament have said that talks with Belgrade should be the responsibility of the government, not the President.
Richard Grenell, the US envoy for the Serbia/Kosovo talks, claims he is only interested in improving economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, not land swaps as I and others have claimed. That is not a credible smokescreen. Already slated for a role in the campaign, he wants to deliver a Rose Garden ceremony for President Trump in the runup to America’s November 3 election. No economic agreement would make the grade. He needs a land swap not only for its own sake, as it reaffirms the ethnic nationalist principles of the Trump Administration, but also because he thinks it can be sold as a big plus for peace and stability in the Balkans, settling an issue neither Clinton could resolve.
That is not true: it will settle nothing. A land swap will sooner or later result in instability in Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and possibly Macedonia. It will also strengthen Russian President Putin’s hand in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But whatever is agreed in the Rose Garden need not last long–just until November 3. The civil aviation agreement Grenell claims to have negotiated has already evaporated, without anyone noticing. The likelihood that neither the Serbian nor the Kosovo parliament will approve a land swap, or that it will be accepted in referenda in either country, won’t matter after the US election. The damage will have been done: wherever the new borders are to be drawn, people will be moving–some voluntarily and some involuntarily–to the “right” side for their own ethnic group. Those who don’t move will be chased out.
So I see this new government–with apologies to Avdullah Hoti–as ill-fated. It will try to open the way to a deal that Kosovans, Americans, and Europeans will regret. The only winners will be Putin and his minions, as well as Serbian President Vucic. By now, even President Thaci should be having his doubts.
Here is the interview I did yesterday with RTK, before parliament approved the new government:
*This originally read “third”-place finisher. That was wrong. LDK came in second. My error. Always check should be my motto!
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Stevenson’s army, June 2
– The US Constitution and existing laws place enormous limits on the federal government’s use of force. There is supposed to be civilian control, under the president. In the District of Columbia the president is in direct control of the national guard. That probably explains why guard forces aggressively dispersed protestors even before the DC Mayor’s 7pm curfew last night.
Earlier, in a call to governors, the president said CJCS General Milley was”in charge.” By law, of course, the Chairman is not in the chain of command over the armed forces, only over the Joint Staff. He cannot give combat orders. The White House press secretary said that there would be a “central command center” to deal with the riots nationwide. But the US military can’t be part of that without presidential invocation of the Insurrection Act. Contrary to the press secretary, the Justice Department told FP that it would be in charge, which is consistent with what Attorney General Barr told the governors, that the issue would be handled by the Joint Terrorism Task Force.
BTW, his ignorance of the law also explains the president’s talk of declaring “antifa” a terrorist organization.
I’m troubled by several things: the president’s glorification of military force as the first response to civil protests; his disregard of the laws and norms by urging federal military intervention nationwide; the apparent complicity of the SecDef and CJCS in this situation. I agree with Kevin Baron of Defense One that “Trump now has the war he wanted.” And that’s bad for civilian control and order in law.
-How timely, Former SecDef Gates warns about the “overmilitarization” of American foreign policy.
-A Columbia prof confirms my concerns that US cyber programs are overwhelmingly focused on offense rather than defense and resilience.
– Time and the UN report the Taliban are colluding with al Qaeda again.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No law, no order
President Trump is trying to claim the mantle of law and order: he has urged governors to crack down on demonstrators and threatened to mobilize military forces, not to mention boasting of the ferocity of his White House guards and their willingness to rough up a crowd. Just one little problem with all this: he is trying to impose order without respecting the law. Remember when he urged police not to be too gentle when arresting people? That’s essentially what he is urging now, on a grand scale.
The law does not allow the use of American military forces for domestic law enforcement, with the exception of the National Guard when mobilized not by the President but rather by governors. The law requires police to respect the right to life, not to suffocate a handcuffed prisoner with a knee on his neck. The law does not allow the President’s guards to mistreat demonstrators. Nor will doing any of those things bring order.
Of course his 40% of America understands that Trump’s crackdown will not be on them. The Trumpians are almost entirely white and mostly male. They will continue to carry their guns into state capitals to intimidate legislators. They will continue to act as agents provocateurs attracting demonstrators into violent acts. Trump’s targets will be his political opponents: Antifa is his convenient smear for them. And he has claimed, with no evidence whatsoever, that they are acting on behalf of his political opponent, Joe Biden.
This is not law and order. It is no law and no order. It is intended to provoke a violent reaction, which then helps to justify the escalation of the violent crackdown. Trump’s autocratic impulses have long been apparent. The current disorder in American cities provides him with the perfect excuse for acting on those impulses. The order he wants is a diktat: freedom for his supporters, imposed discipline for everyone else.
That is not the only reason the violence is unwise. It will also limit participation in the protests and lessen the political pressure to undertaken the difficult law enforcement reforms required. It is all too obvious that America’s police need retraining to “serve and protect.” Instead, police departments will feel justified in continuing to acquire the vast arsenal of military equipment the Federal government makes available to them. That, in turn, isolates the police from citizens and provokes hot heads to raise the ante with even more violence.
This kind of violent spiral is a losing proposition for both the protesters and the police. The protesters end up with less support. A lot of people aren’t going to join the protests if there is a risk of violence. The police have to use more and more violence to impose their will. That puts them at risk too. The best policing is community policing that is in close touch with the citizens. It requires dialogue and understanding, not tear gas and flash/bangs. Order prevails when communities feel the police are on the citizens’ side. That’s what we teach abroad. That’s what we should do at home.
Here is the no law and no order President posing awkwardly yesterday with a Bible he all too clearly finds an alien object in front a Church opposite the White House. He had peaceful protesters teargassed so he could do it, without asking the church’s permission:
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After Suleimani
“How is the killing of Suleimani likely to change Iran’s grand strategy and Quds Force operations in Iraq and beyond? Who is Ismail Qaani, the new commander of the Quds Force, and how is he likely to approach these challenges and adapt his organization to the changed circumstances?” On May 26, the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) hosted a virtual panel discussion examining the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership. The discussion examined how the killing of Suleimani is likely to change Iran’s Quds Force operations. The discussion was moderated by Hussein Ibish and featured three guest speakers:
Ali Alfoneh: Senior Fellow, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Kori Schake: Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute
Joseph L. Votel: General, U.S. Army (Ret.)
Hussein Ibish (Moderator): Senior Resident Scholar, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Structural Changes in the IRGC
Alfoneh outlined various transformations in Iranian foreign policy that Suleimani instituted during his command of the IRGC.
- He was able to establish a multinational Shi’a army spanning the Middle East and parts of southern Asia. This includes militias within Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
- He transformed the IRGC to a large expeditionary force. Before the ongoing wars in Syria, only a small portion of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was deployed beyond its borders.
- Because of his personal charisma, he managed to transform clandestine operation groups within the IRGC into popular mobilization forces. In Syria, he was able to mobilize both Iranians and non-Iranians to participate in the conflict.
Alfoneh predicts that:
- Iran will continue to utilize its multinational Shi’a army because of the many successes under Suleimani. One success in particular was ensuring the survival of the Assad regime in Syria–an expressed and defined mission of the Quds Force.
- Iran will engage in a much more aggressive national security strategy. This will result in the IRGC participating in more acts of expeditionary warfare.
- It remains unlikely that a personality cult will develop around Suleimani’s successor, Ismail Qaani. He lacks Suleimani’s personal charisma.
Strategic Impact in Iraq
As the commander of the Quds Force, Suleimani led Iranian extraterritorial military and clandestine operations. Votel believes that the killing of General Suleimani is a defining moment in the US relationship with Iraq in particular. Going forward, the United States must clearly communicate its regional strategy and create better diplomatic channels to counter Iranian influence in Iraq.
Schake stressed that Iranian success in Iraq can be attributed to both Suleimani and Iran’s ability to mobilize its militias. She believes that the United States cannot be seen as a trustworthy partner for Iraq because of its on again, off again support for the Iraqi government. This indecisiveness has led to unsuccessful American foreign policy and increased space for Iranian influence. Iran’s regional campaigns have proven to be quite successful because of Tehran’s ability to nurture long term relationships.
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Stevenson’s army, June 1
– FT says Israel and Iran have begun cyber war.
– USMC Commandant takes flak from Jim Webb.
– CFR has ideas for post-pandemic foreign policy.
– Many nuggets from long WaPo article on Trump’s rocky May.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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