What Lebanon needs

“Lebanon is going through one of the most acute crises in its modern history.  A complex economic collapse is driving hundreds of thousands into poverty and the risk of hunger, and shuttering an already wounded economy. A large cross section of the population revolted in October of last year and has created a standoff with a corrupt and sectarian oligarchy. The government is unable to chart and implement a way out of the crisis, and state institutions stand on the brink of failure. The multiple crises have threatened all sectors, including the critical education sector, previously one of the success stories of the country; universities, like other institutions, have been hard hit.” On July 10, 2020, the Middle East Institute hosted an online discussion on possibilities for a way forward in Lebanon. The event was moderated by Paul Salem and featured three speakers:

Ishac Diwan: Chairperson, Socio-économie du Monde Arabe, Paris Sciences et Lettres

Fadlo Khuri: President, the American University of Beirut

Maya Yahya: Director, the Carnegie Middle East Center, Beirut

Paul Salem (Moderator): President, Middle East Institute 

Economics

The beginnings of the Lebanese economic collapse can be traced back to 2016. Diwan believes that although the Lebanese political elite knew the needed economic reforms, they did not implement them. Now nine months into the current Hassan Diab-led government, Lebanon remains plagued by inaction on the part of its leaders. To stabilize the economic situation, Diwan recommends:

1. Reduction of the source of the problem—less government deficit and less corruption

2. Devaluation of the Lebanese pound

3. Reduction of debt to make the state credit worthy

4. Restructuring of the banking sector

5. Dissolution of losses in a socially acceptable manner

To Diwan, the only way to stop this economic collapse right now, without deep structural reform, would be to starve the economy of cash until credible reforms bring back confidence. 

Politics

Yahya highlights that the October 17 revolution movement remains at an impasse. Today, different groups have begun to organize themselves as nascent political parties. More recently, increasing initiatives for the formation of a coherent government able to pass real economic reform have occurred. Going forward, Yahya believes it remains crucial that these coalitions present a unified front capable of challenging the current political elite. Yahya also recommends the continuation of street protests to further voice popular dismay.

Education

Khuri warns that higher education in Lebanon continues to endure an acute crisis. As the president of the American University of Beirut, Khuri includes his institution in this determination. Since the opening of the airport in Beirut, many of those who are regarded as the “pillars” of Lebanon– doctors, lawyers, engineers, and artists– have fled the country. Khuri predicts many universities in Beirut will be forced to close due to the current economic climate. Going forward, the government must invest in the higher education of its citizens. Hope for the end of the current crisis lays in the hands of Lebanon’s educated youth.