Month: July 2020
Restarted, but…
With the US initiative for White House talks between Serbia and Kosovo aborted, the European Union last week reconvened its own dialogue with Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti and Serbian President Vucic participating. They reportedly discussed two things: accounting for missing people and economic issues.
This was wise. The talks had to be convened quickly, in order to maintain momentum and EU credibility. But neither side is ready to discuss the tough political issues that the dialogue aims to resolve.
Missing people is an issue that concerns both Belgrade and Pristina, as both governments are under pressure to show that there is some tangible benefit to talking with the adversary. It should have been done long ago, but that doesn’t make it less necessary now. Families on both sides want the identification and return of the remains of their loved ones. Completing that process requires extensive collaboration that can increase confidence and open up further issues for joint action.
The economic issues are more fraught. Vucic has already got what he wanted: an end to the tariffs Kosovo had levied on Serbian goods in retaliation for its so-called “de-recognition” campaign. Hoti has a long list of economic issues he wants discussed: “compensation for war damage, succession [of ownership of former Yugoslav property], state debt, pensions, savings in banks, the lost wages of laid-off workers, damage to private property and other issues.” Vucic isn’t interested in discussing those items. No doubt he’ll have his own list of damages and debits when the time comes.
The talks are now adjourned until September. That’s also wise, not only because Europe takes August off but also because no one is really ready for serious progress on the big issues. I’ve written recently about the preparations that have not yet been put in place. To summarize:
- The EU needs to make sure its member states are more unified and provide the visa waiver for which Kosovo is qualified by September and at least a pledge of diplomatic recognition by five non-recognizing member states at the conclusion of the dialogue. A statement to that effect from the five is in order.
- The US needs to get back into a supportive role, which won’t be possible so long as the American negotiator is a vocal critic of the EU interested only in President Trump’s reelection prospects. Ric Grenell, who has failed at more jobs in the last year or two than anyone should have, needs to go.
- Kosovo needs a broader government that backs Hoti and can implement in parliament what is agreed in Brussels.
- Serbia needs a decision to drop its “sitting on two stools” (East and West) policy and go hell bent for EU accession, with willingness to pay the price of normalization with Kosovo.
Those vital pieces to a political solution are not in place. Nor are they likely to be in place by September, by which time American attention will have refocused on the November 3 election.
That’s not the only problem. The EU seems still unwilling to do the right thing on the visa waiver, and Serbia seems uninterested in committing to good neighborly relations, which would include a clear commitment to Kosovo membership in the United Nations as well as exchange of ambassadorial-level representatives. Ironically, Kosovo has the best chance of meeting the preconditions: whatever happens in the dialogue, it will need a stronger majority if President Thaci resigns in order to choose his replacement.
So it was good to restart the dialogue process, but it is going to have a hard time proceeding apace. Berlin’s ambition of concluding before the end of Germany’s EU presidency is likely to be disappointed. Unless someone comes along with a bundle of money to settle Hoti’s economic claims and Vucic’s equally ample appetite, things are likely to stall. My recommendation: spend the next 5 months preparing for serious talks in 2021, starting on January 21. That prospect should concentrate minds in Belgrade, which has the most to lose from a new US Administration committed to Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It might even lead to earlier movement on Belgrade’s part.
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Covid-19 sparks authoritarianism
“The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the political climate in several African countries. From restrictive media laws to prohibitions on political activities, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the opposition to contribute to policy debates or even assist their supporters in a time of need. Evidently, these continuous attacks on political leaders and civil society activists are most acute in countries experiencing democratic backsliding.” On July 17, the Center for Strategic & International Studies hosted an online event titled “The Fight for Democracy and Public Health”. The event was moderated by Judd Devermont, director of the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) and featured four guest speakers:
Tendai Biti: Member of Parliament, Harare East Constituency; Vice President, Movement for Democratic Change (Zimbabwe)
Zitto Kabwe: Party Leader, Alliance for Change and Transparency (Tanzania)
Hakainde Hichilema: President, United Party for National Development (Zambia)
Salem Solomon: Multimedia Digital Journalist, Voice of America – Africa Division
Current Context
Salem underscores that around the world, states have placed unprecedented restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic upon freedom of movement and various other basic liberties. As public gatherings have increasingly been restricted in the name of public health and safety, mandated state lockdowns have also simultaneously been enforced. In many places, leaders use these restrictions to consolidate political power and repress opposition parties. Significantly, these restrictions will remain in place beyond the end of the pandemic.
Zimbabwe
Biti highlights that various African states like Zimbabwe have already been plagued by a “political pandemic” –authoritarianism. The coronavirus pandemic aids and abets proponents of authoritarian regimes across the African continent. In Zimbabwe and Zambia, it has been used to justify the imposition of de facto states of emergency, further restricting democracy. The pandemic has also massively increased looting, corruption, and abuses of power across Zimbabwe. The people of Zimbabwe face an “economic pandemic:” 95% of all people in Zimbabwe remain unemployed, Zimbabwe ranks second highest globally in terms of hyperinflation, and shortages of power and food remain rampant.
Tanzania
Zitto states that although the government of Tanzania has remained persistent in their skepticism of the pandemic, it has simultaneously maintained rigorous control over the release of information. It has cracked down on social media and has arrested citizens for posting about the coronavirus pandemic. The government has blocked access to statistical data concerning the number of cases, deaths, and recoveries from the virus. One-third of the Tanzanian economy derives from tourism. Thus, the imposition of travel restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic has devastated the economy.
Zambia
Hichilema highlights that Zambia has yet again found itself in a debt crisis. The government blames the coronavirus pandemic for the continued rise of state debt and economic failure. To Hichilema, Zambia’s economic state can be attributed not to the pandemic alone, but to years of government mismanagement.
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Stevenson’s army, July 21
– More federal agents to more cities.
– Bolton unleashed.
– Risks of war with Iran as Netanyahu prepares for a Biden presidency.
Senate hearing for controversial USD[P] nominee.
– Are we doing too many FONOPS?
– How China fudges its statistics.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 20, late edition
More hot news on a hot day. The administration is planning to send federal agents to Chicago and perhaps New York as it has to Portland. Lawfare says they are claiming an intelligence mission — to protect monuments and statues.
Just Security has discovered that AG Barr has done this sort of thing before and bragged about it.
In other news, Dan Drezner gives a barely passing grade to Pompeo’s Unalienable Rights Commission
A group has a bipartisan list of suggested defense budget cuts.
Reuters has a special story on Chinese amphibious capabilities.
Brookings has a new site for its China assessments.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | July 20-26, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Russian Influence Activities in Europe | July 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM- 12:45 PM | CSIS | Register Here
Please join CSIS for a conversation on Russia’s influence activities in the UK, Europe, and Europe’s southern neighborhood featuring Dame Karen Pierce DCMG, British Ambassador to the United States, and Luke Harding, foreign correspondent and investigative journalist for The Guardian, on the occasion of a newly released CSIS report on Russian and Chinese influence activities in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Introduced by Heather A. Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, and moderated by Rachel Ellehuus, CSIS Europe Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, this conversation will examine the objectives and tactics behind Russia’s influence activities in the UK, Europe, and beyond; discuss the activities which were and were not considered successful; and discuss steps that the United Kingdom has taken to be more resilient and less susceptible to Russian efforts at home and abroad.
Speakers:
Dame Karen Pierce DCMG: British Ambassador to the United States
Luke Harding: Foreign Correspondent, The Guardian
Rachel Ellehuus: Deputy Director, Europe Program
Heather A. Conley: Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; and Director, Europe Program
- Sino-Indian Escalation: Blip or Lasting Strategic Shift? | July 21, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace |Register Here
Last month, Chinese and Indian troops came to blows in their deadliest border incident since 1967, culminating on June 15 with the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops. The Indian and Chinese governments have remained largely silent on exactly what happened along the disputed boundary. The two countries appear to have stabilized the situation by starting a disengagement process, but unlike prior dustups, this unexpected and deadly turn could portend a lasting and significant strategic shift.
Join USIP for an expert panel on the Sino-Indian border clash and its implications for regional and global security. The discussion will examine whether this conflict signals an emboldened shift in China’s posture toward disputed borders elsewhere, how this rivalry affects existing India-Pakistan tensions and other border disputes, and what the implications are for the United States and its allies as they push back on perceived Chinese aggression.
Speakers:
Tanvi Madan: Senior Fellow, Project on International Order and Strategy and Director of the India Project, Brookings Institution
M. Taylor Fravel: Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Vikram J. Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Jacob Stokes (Moderator): Senior Policy Analyst, China Program, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
- One State, Two States, or None At All: Where Do Israelis and Palestinians Go From Here? | July 21, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
As Israelis and Palestinians confront the future, prospects for serious negotiations, or even a conflict-ending solution, look particularly grim. The prospects of a negotiated two-state solution are dwindling or already dead; the possibility of a bi-national state shimmers out in the distance like a desert mirage; and both the Trump peace plan and possible Israeli annexation offer either continued impasse or escalation.
Where do Israelis and Palestinians go from here? Join us as three veteran observers and practitioners of Israeli-Palestinian affairs assess the prospects for peace and the road ahead.
Speakers:
Shlomo Ben Ami: former foreign minister of Israel.
Nadeel Shaath: foreign minister of Palestine from 2003 to 2005, the former minister of Planning and International Cooperation, and a former member of Fateh Central Committee.
Tamara Cofman Wittes: senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, where she focuses on U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Aaron David Miller: senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, focusing on U.S. foreign policy.
- The Next Era of US-Pacific Islands Engagement | July 22, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In this Pacific Century, the United States is a Pacific nation that for three generations has anchored peace in this region of the world. The Pacific Islands include 24 jurisdictions ranging from independent states, to states linked to the United States and others through free association compacts, to territories and dependencies stretching throughout Polynesia, Micronesia, and Melanesia—from Rapa Nui to Palau, from Hawai’i to New Caledonia. As the world turns its attention to the Pacific Islands, these countries are coalescing around a shared regional identity and bringing their economic, political, and security concerns to the global stage.
How do the United States and our allies and partners continue longstanding mutual interests and values with the Pacific Islands in the face of accelerating development needs and challenges to regional peace and security, sovereignty, trade and freedom of navigation, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law?
Join USIP as we host two co-founders of the bipartisan Congressional Pacific Islands Caucus for a discussion that outlines these challenges and opportunities, as well as their proposals to coordinate the next era of the United States’ engagement in the Pacific.
Speakers:
Rep. Ed Case: U.S. Representative from Hawaii
Rep. Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative from Florida
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: (Moderator): President, U.S. Institute of Peace
- US Policy Towards Syria after the Caesar Act | July 22, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Arab Center DC | Register Here
This webinar focuses on the substance and ramifications of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which was passed by both chambers of the US Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump in 2019. It went into effect on June 17, 2020. The discussion will provide details on the sanctions mandated by the act, an update on the implementation and targets of these sanctions, and the ensuing political and regional dynamics, including Russia’s reaction. The speakers will also address the next steps for the United States following the July 9, 2020 condemnation of Syria’s air force by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
Speakers:
Joel D. Rayburn: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Levant Affairs and Special Envoy for Syria, US Department of State
Radwan Ziadeh: Senior Fellow, Arab Center Washington DC
Reema Abuhamdieh (Moderator): Presenter and Reporter, Al Araby Television Network
- Toward a Green Recovery in the Gulf States | July 23, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:30 AM | Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington| Register Here
As the Gulf Arab countries look to recover from the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, climate-related challenges loom large over their economic revival plans. While urgent in their own right, climate-related challenges are a slower moving threat compared to the immediacy of a global pandemic; nevertheless, the economic consequences of, and solutions to, both problems present many parallels. As with climate change, the coronavirus crisis further emphasizes the importance of regional economic diversification programs aimed at reducing oil dependence and highlights lower carbon, technology, and human capital-intensive businesses as the sectors that are most sustainable and resilient to economic shocks.
Is this a window of opportunity for Gulf leaders to drive diversification policies further and faster? Will shifts in consumer and industrial behaviors reorient economic policy toward sustainable development goals? Couldaccelerating investment in renewable energy underpin economic recovery, or will rising public debt, combined with significant capital outflows and reduced exports, make financing green investments a challenge?
Speakers:
Samantha Gross: Fellow, Foreign Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution
Aisha Al-Sarihi: Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW
Rabia Ferroukhi: Director, Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre, International Renewable Energy Agency
Mari Luomi: Independent Expert, Sustainable Energy and Climate Policy
Grzegorz Peszko: Economist, World Bank
- Online Event: A Conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci | July 24, 2020 | 1:30 PM – 2:00 PM | CSIS | Watch Event Here
Please join the CSIS Global Health Policy Center on Friday, July 24 from 1:30 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. EDT for a conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force on Covid-19 in the United States. The United States is in the midst of a worsening crisis, with Covid-19 cases and deaths increasing in the Sun Belt, the West, and many other parts of the United States. This begs the question: what is the strategy for ensuring that the outbreak does not spiral out of control in the United States? How can the United States strengthen the basic public health capacities – test, trace, and isolate – needed to slow the spread? What federal, state, and local actions may be necessary to protect the American people and safely reopen businesses, schools, and sporting events?
In this CSIS Commission on Strengthening America’s Health Security event, J. Stephen Morrison, Senior Vice President and Director of the CSIS Global Health Policy Center, will discuss these difficult questions with Dr. Anthony Fauci. They will also discuss the development of a safe and effective Covid-19 vaccine, including the status and promise of Operation Warp Speed.`
Speakers:
Anthony Fauci: Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force
J. Stephen Morrison: Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center
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Stevenson’s army, July 20
– Politico has a long piece trying to show that SecDef Esper is stronger and more independent of Trump than earlier reports suggested. But it has mixed anonymous assessments from inside the Pentagon. It says NSA O’Brien is angling for the job. It says CJCS Milley is domineering over Esper.
– NYT has more on the whistleblower complaint against SecState Pompeo
– NYT excerpts a chapter from a new book about the Iraq war where Colin Powell tries to justify his UNSC testimony.
– NYT says lobbying is changing because of the coronavirus: they’re working mainly in home states rather than DC. But they are working to get special interest provisions in the next pandemic relief bill.
– Former cyber official makes the case against a WH Cyber Czar.
Stay cool. Look at the Celsius temps not Fahrenheit.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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