Month: July 2020
Vote him away!
Doubts about America’s November 3 election are multiplying: These are the most prominent concerns:
- Will people who oppose Trump be allowed to vote?
- Will the November 3 election be held?
- Will Trump recognize and observe the election results?
Voter suppression is definitely an issue. It has become integral to Republican campaign strategy. The phenomenon is not new. The Democrats used to do it, when their white supremacists controlled the South. Now it is vital to Republican prospects.
A glance at The Economist‘s forecasts is enough to illustrate the point. Trump is down to a 7% chance of winning the Electoral College, where he is far stronger than in the popular vote because the Electoral College favors smaller, more rural states. But Vice President Biden is now favored to win even Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, all states Trump won last time around. Trump in current polling is looking strong in only a dozen states, all part of his base. A successful voter suppression campaign would render all these polls meaningless.
Voter suppression takes many forms: limiting polling places in Democratic strongholds, making mail-in voting more difficult, poll-watchers and election workers who intimidate, raising the cost of voting to those who have served jail time by making them pay court costs or fines, sending out misleading election information, and gerrymandering Congressional districts (though that has minimal effect on a presidential election). These are real and concerted efforts now in the Republican playbook. The Republican-controlled Supreme Court, in a series of rulings, has followed suit by choosing to limit voting rights.
2 and 3, never before big worries in my lifetime, are now emerging as concerns for some people. Neither is feasible, so long as constitutional procedures are observed.
President Trump cannot postpone the election–it is Congress that has that power, which has not been delegated to the President. The divided Congress is not going to change that. In any event, Trump leaves office, according to the Constitution, on January 20, so a postponement would not gain him much time.
Nor is 3 feasible, even though Trump is refusing to commit to accepting the election results. But once the states convey their Electoral College results to a joint session of Congress on December 14, whoever has the majority wins. If no one gets a majority, the House of Representatives chooses the President, in a “contingent” election based on a single vote for each state. It is the newly elected House, not the existing one, that gets to decide, but the new one is sure to be more Democratic than the current one.
There is of course the possibility of an extra-constitutional outcome: a coup. This cannot be ruled out. I find it hard to believe that the real purpose in deploying Federal law enforcement cadres to Portland, Oregon in the past week or so, over the objections of the governor, mayor, and many other officials, is to prevent graffiti on Federal property. The Administration is testing the limits: what can they get away with? This is classic Trump, who always pushes back on constraints to his behavior. He may be looking for excuses to deploy more forces before the election, generating enough violence to suppress voting, or he may be preparing for a post-election coup.
This sounds unlikely to me. We are a young country, but an old governing system. Elections have been held even when the country was at war, constitutional procedures have been followed, and presidents have gained and lost power in orderly fashion since 1789. President Trump no doubt dreads leaving office, but he can protect himself from prosecution by pardoning himself. I have no doubt that he will do it, as he has for his lying friends, war criminals, and other miscreants.
In any event, a coup won’t be necessary if Trump wins. So fans, the election will be held November 3 and Trump won’t have any choice constitutional choice but to accept the election results. But he will try to suppress the vote. Vote him away! is the right response.
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Stevenson’s army, July 19
In a lengthy and curious article describing the changing administration response to the coronavirus, NYT point blame on two new figures, Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Dr. Deborah Birx. On line, NYT has added a short summary article, 5 takeaways. The reports blame Meadows for daily small group meetings to plot strategy to turn the pandemic problems over to the states and thus away from the WH. Key date was April 10. The articles also depict Dr. Birx as the eternal optimist, repeatedly promising that the models forecast declining infections. She reportedly was given a West Wing office and was closer to the discussions and planning than any other medical person. The article has other nuggets, such as the claim that Jared Kushner told California Gov. Newsom he had to praise Trump if he wanted the medical equipment he was seeking.
– DHS was warned that agents sent to Portland lacked training in crowd control.
– WaPo says Russia is gaining in Syria.
– McClatchy says there is a serious whistleblower complaint against SecState Pompeo.
-WaPo has a review of the new book about Newt Gingrich.
– Two respected former members of Congress suggest ending gerrymandering by having the House reject credentials of members from gerrymandered states. Don’t go there!
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 18
– What are federal agents doing on the streets of Portland? Is it “Barr’s Gestapo”? A law prof raises important questions.
– Politico says the administration is evading Congress in some new DOD appointments.
– Despite last year’s law blocking cuts, administration has plans to cut US forces in Korea.
– Everybody does it: WHO is hiring US public relations firms.
– Biden says he is now receiving the classified intelligence briefings traditionally given to major party nominees.
– Simon Kuper of FT calls for some US introspection.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 17
– An Obama NSC staffer criticizes the new DNI.
– A Brookings Fellow critiques the new defense space strategy.
– AG Barr hits US companies for “appeasement” of China.
– Several reports question Merkel’s friendliness toward China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Macedonia is a good story
The New York Times is bemoaning a muddy election outcome in North Macedonia. I beg to differ.
The outcome is no muddier than previous Macedonian elections, which have consistently left the Albanian political parties as the dealmakers and breakers. That is true this time as well, with the added complication that no single Albanian party may be able to give either of the main parties enough votes in parliament to gain a commanding majority. So government formation is likely to be a messy and perhaps lengthy process, but that is often the case in parliamentary systems that have more than two parties or electoral coalitions.
To focus on that is to miss the main point: both the winning Socialists and the opposition Macedonian ethnic nationalists did well in a serious and well-run electoral competition. With the country still in the midst of the Covid-19 epidemic, former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev survived after agreeing with Greece to change the official name of the country to North Macedonia. The ethnic Macedonian ethnic nationalists led by Hristijan Mickoski survived the downfall of its former leader and prime minister, who somehow escaped from prison and remains in exile.
Assuming Zaev is successful in government formation negotiations, Macedonia* faces a future with a pro-EU and pro-NATO government. That government will face a vigorous opposition, one that would now be well-advised to refocus its attention away from opposition to the Prespa Agreement towards EU membership.
Even if Zaev fails to gain a majority in parliament and Mickoski succeeds, the latter would need to govern in alliance with one or more pro-NATO and pro-EU Albanian political parties who back the Prespa Agreement. Nothing like that reasonable outcome would be possible today in neighboring Serbia, Montenegro, or Bosnia and Herzegovina. Macedonia is fortunate indeed.
A word too about the electoral process, which is arguably more important than the outcome. The competition appears to have run more smoothly than at times in the past. Yes, the website of the electoral commission was hacked, but so too yesterday was Joe Biden’s Twitter account. I can imagine who might have done it, but I have no evidence. The hack was overcome and the election results are clear. The OSCE has judged the election was “generally administered effectively,” despite Covid-19. Concerns focused on legal changes made too close to the election in OSCE’s judgment, even though some were made to meet OSCE recommendations:
It would be unwise to expect everything to go smoothly now in a Balkan country that has seen its share of turbulence. But Macedonia has stepped back from the brink many times in its almost 30 years since independence. The path ahead is likely to be bumpy–meeting the requirements of the EU’s acquis communautaire in a multi-ethnic democracy will be no mean feat. Macedonia faces bigger challenges than EU members Slovenia and Croatia did, not least because the requirements for rule of law have been significantly tightened. But EU accession is the country’s strategic goal. If both government and opposition keep the focus on that, North Macedonia’s future will be bright.
* Please note: the Prespa Agreement that changed its official name explicitly protects the right of ordinary people to call the country what they want.
PS: Here is the interview I did for VOA on the election. Sorry, I was unable to embed it here.
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Stevenson’s army, July 16
– Citing “former officials with direct knowledge,” Yahoo News has a detailed exclusive story revealing the Trump Administration’s 2018 presidential finding giving the CIA much greater freedom to launch offensive cyber operations against key adversary countries [including Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea] and against critical infrastructure and financial institutions.It says that there are now “lessened … evidentiary requirements” for choosing targets. There is no mention of reporting these activities to Congress, and even the NSC is said to have little oversight role. Nor does there appear to be any provision like the Obama requirement for specific presidential approval of any action that was expected to have “significant consequences.” In my opinion, this is way short of adequate.
The Trump directive apparently repeals and replaces the Obama PDD 20. [Beware before opening this link. Some people say that you could jeopardize a valid security clearance by opening a document like this — Top Secret/Noforn — released by Snowden and not formally declassified] On the other hand, its details have been widely reported over several years.
Readers here know that I have long promoted the “Title 60” idea of applying the Hughes-Ryan model to offensive cyber ops and lethal drone strikes: require presidential approval and congressional notification. Obama went half way in PDD 20. Trump and his NSC won’t even go that far.
In other news, the US is planning even more sanctions on Chinese officials as part of the escalating cold war.
– The sparkplug for the pivot to Asia in the Obama administration, Kurt Campbell, has a new assessment of China’s strategy.
-US may sanction more companies, including Shell Oil, over Nordstream2.
– NBC says WH tried to block Alexander Vindman’s promotion after his impeachment testimony by sending the Pentagon a report that he created a hostile work environment.
– Brookings has an interesting database of states’ ability to handle voting by mail.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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