Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is turning increasingly East, disappointing those who thought he might be the Serbian nationalist with sufficient credibility on that side of the political spectrum to make a definitive move toward the West. Why is he doing the opposite?
There are several explanations, not mutually exclusive. As in many things politicians do, there are more reasons than needed:
Vucic is a bit like Turkish President Erdogan: constrained by nationalists within his own body politic to do what comes naturally: accumulate power, obliterate the opposition, and align with other autocrats. Both also enjoy projecting power beyond their borders, on grounds of protecting national security or co-ethnics in neighboring countries. Neo-Ottomanism and Greater Serbia ambitions are external manifestations of domestic nationalist ideology.
In the meanwhile, Vucic gets the Europeans to pay a lot of his bills and the Americans to pressure Pristina into deals on resources like Gazivoda (a lake in northern Kosovo that supplies much of Kosovo’s water supply) and Trepca (a mining complex mostly in northern Kosovo that has been moribund for decades). Russia does relatively little by comparison, but that doesn’t matter because it satisfies nationalist pressure for Slavic cultural and religious affinity and continues to block Kosovo entry into the UN with its certain veto in the Security Council. Putin is smart about keeping the costs of his power projection low.
So there are lots of good reasons for Vucic to do what he is doing, and few compelling ones for a different attitude. He is both feeder and victim of the nationalist milieu that keeps him from anything too bold in the other direction. A real commitment to liberal democracy and EU membership, heartily to be desired, would put his own hold on power at risk, even if it would benefit most of the country’s citizens and accelerate EU accession. Why not just sit tight and get what you can from squeezing the Americans, the Europeans, the Chinese and the Russians? Hedge, don’t bandwagon.
After all, Tito did it, why not Aleksandar.
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