What to expect September 4

I’m getting questions about the September 4 meeting Ric Grenell has convened with Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti, allegedly to pursue economic agreements between them. Here are some of the Qs and As so far:

Marija Stojanovic of Daily Danas asked;

Q: What do you expect to be achieved at the upcoming between the Serbian President and Kosovo’s Prime Minister in Washington?

A: I’m really not sure. Maybe some more agreements to agree in the economic area, including on Trepca and Gazivoda. Or special economic zones along the boundary/border between Kosovo and Serbia. I doubt there can be agreement on the bigger political issues concerning normalization of relations, as Belgrade seems unwilling to recognize Kosovo as sovereign and independent and Pristina can accept nothing less. Prime Minister Hoti has a narrow margin in parliament and won’t want to risk an early election, which former Prime Minister Kurti is likely to win decisively.

Delvin Kovac of Vijesti.ba asked for my views on the push by Milorad Dodik, Serb member of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, to get Vucic to raise the status of Republika Srpska as part of the Washington talks:

Q: Mr. Dodik sees problems in everything: “Anti-Dayton behaviour of the high representatives,” international community, Constitutional Court…

A: When you see a problem with everyone else but not with yourself, maybe you have the wrong perspective.

Q: Mr. Dodik says that the “Western countries have double standards when it comes to the issue of the RS and Kosovo.”

A: It depends what your standard is. There is no strict parallel between the RS, which was created to secede, and Kosovo, which existed as a Federal unit within former Yugoslavia. RS is a permanent part of Bosnia and Herzegovina because that was the only way to end a war. Dodik should be thankful, in particular to the Americans: had the war continued for 10 more days RS would no longer exist. Kosovo is independent because separating it from Yugoslavia ensured war could not start again. In other words, if your standard is peace, the outcome in both places is reasonable.

Q: How do you think the Washington officials who will attend the meeting with Vučić and Hoti on September 4 will react to Vučić’s eventual mentioning of Republika Srpska during the talks about Kosvo?

A: You’ll have to ask them. If I were a US government official today, I would laugh, tell him he has done his duty, and move on to the next agenda item. Vucic would then be relieved, as RS independence would put him in a double bind: either recognizing and losing all prospect of EU membership, or not recognizing and losing Serb support. Vucic is quite happy to see RS making governance impossible in Bosnia, not in Serbia.

Veljko Nestorović of Dnevne novine Alo asked:

Q: Is it possible to get your comment on the news that President Trump could attend the meeting of representatives of Belgrade and Pristina in Washington? How do you look at it, and does that mean that a final agreement may be discussed?

A: Best to ask the White House. They are desperate for anything they can advertise as a foreign policy success. I doubt it will qualify as a “final” agreement, though of course that claim may be made. The President is a flim-flam man, and Grenell is worse.