Month: August 2020
Lebanon was Already in Crisis
Please Note: This piece was written prior to the August 4th explosion. Since then, the crisis in Lebanon has only worsened. Protests are re-invigorated, and the cabinet resigned.
Lebanon is at a critical juncture. Its economy is in shambles and many of its inhabitants are impoverished, unemployed, and/or hungry. In October 2019, a protest movement emerged in Lebanon, calling for the implementation of social and political reforms. The movement has achieved little success and, unfortunately, the crisis has only worsened in recent months.
In light of this situation, the Middle East Institute (MEI) and the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL) launched a joint study outlining the necessary steps that both Lebanon and the United States must take to resolve the crisis. The two published a policy paper, Recommendations for a Stable Bilateral Relationship, in July. On July 14, MEI and the ATFL convened a panel to discuss their findings. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below.
Jean AbiNader: Policy Director, American Task Force for Lebanon
Congressman Darin LaHood: Congressman, Illinois’ 18th District
Paul Raphael: Founding Chair, Lebanese International Finance Executives
Mona Yacoubian: Senior Advisor to the Vice President for Middle East & Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. Ed Gabriel: President & CEO, American Task Force for Lebanon
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Lebanon at a Crossroads
MEI President Paul Salem believes that the crisis in Lebanon is the result of decades of poor governance, characterized by fiscal mismanagement, debt accumulation, and severe budget deficits. Since the ratification of the Taif Agreement in 1989, Lebanese politics have been elite-dominated. Salem argues that Lebanon’s governing elites are responsible for the establishment of patronage systems and other corrupt networks, which have nearly bankrupted the country.
The present crisis is multi-dimensional, encompassing economic, social, and political issues. In brief, the national economy is contracting and the currency is deflating. Poverty, unemployment, and hunger are ubiquitous. The Lebanese government is increasingly unstable. Finally, there have been protests since October 2019. Salem believes that the protest movement holds promise, though the challenges it faces are immense. It must build consensus around one vision in order to more effectively advocate for change.
The situation has only been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic. Lebanon’s currency, the Lebanese pound, experienced devaluation by more than 80% since October 2019. The inflation rate is approximately 55%, though some prices of food items has risen by 200%. The unemployment rate is 40%. Lebanon’s once-robust middle class is dwindling, and many Lebanese citizens have been thrust into poverty. Hunger is widespread, and acts of desperation, including suicide and lawlessness, are increasingly common. In Yacoubian’s words, Lebanon is “hurtling toward becoming a failed state.”
Under Prime Minister Hassan Diab, Paul Raphael feels that the government’s response has been “irresponsible and disturbing.” It has promised a great deal and done very little. Salem believes this is due to its relative lack of power and inability to execute reforms. Many panel-members thus question whether the current government has staying power. It may soon be replaced by a new, more legitimate government, one that will take a more serious approach to the crisis.
Lebanon’s Future
Without deliberate action to ameliorate the economic and social issues, there is a significant risk of state collapse. Lebanon’s stability has been guaranteed by its army and internal security forces. As salaries for soldiers and security officers dwindle, Salem fears that individuals will no longer be willing to work. If this occurs, Lebanon will again be dominated by militias, and that cantons will become the basis of political organization.
A failed state in the Eastern Mediterranean would be disastrous. Militant groups would likely enter its territory, threatening regional peace and stability. Collapse could trigger a large-scale refugee crisis. Lebanon already hosts more refugees per capita than any other state. In so doing, Yacoubian asserts, it provides “an international public good.” If refugees are forced to leave Lebanon, there will be a humanitarian crisis.
Even so, in the eyes of Representative Darin LaHood, the crisis in Lebanon is also “a moment of opportunity.” The United States can engage Lebanon and, in so doing, prevent state collapse. Before this can occur, the panel recommends that Lebanon’s government demonstrate a credible commitment to action and reform. Once these conditions are met, the United States can work with the United Nations’ International Support Group for Lebanon to strengthen the country’s social safety net and inject liquidity into the banking system.
To watch the event in full:
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Stevenson’s army, August 12
– Politico explains Kamala Harris’ clever campaign for the VP slot.
– State IG report clears Pompeo on arms sales action, but redacted sections raise doubts.
-Berkeley prof sees real strategy in administration moves on technology & China.
– Law prof hits Supreme Court’s “shadow docket.”
– Census count matters to state and local governments.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August
– Former Ambassador to Russia McFaul says President Xi is not a Stalin.
– Nominee as Ambassador to Germany is anti-Jewish and worse.
– Iran policy on hold with Hook’s departure.
– Take note: what Flournoy would do as SecDef.
– You probably have to access this piece through the SAIS library or similar site, but I urge you to read David Gompert’s article in the new Survival [from IISS] “Spin-on: How the US Can Meet China’s Technological Challenge.” I have long valued Gompert’s analyses of defense issues and agree the US needs to boost government R&D in key areas to match China. He has the numbers and the suggestions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | August 10 – August 14
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Breakthrough in Belarus: A Democratic Opening | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
After months of protests, Belarusians cast their votes on August 9 for the presidential election. The five-term president of Belarus, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, faces the most severe threat to his regime since he took power more than a quarter century ago. For months, protests erupted after opposition candidates were either imprisoned or disqualified. Undeterred by mass arrests and fines, opposition forces rallied against Lukashenka’s government and the immediate election results. Government-sponsored exit polls showing that President Lukashenka won 80 percent of the vote face broad claims of election fraud, triggering further protests and a heavy police crackdown.
The situation is further complicated by the arrest of alleged Russian operatives in Minsk, sparking wild speculation of foreign intervention. Will claims of interference by Lukashenka succeed in distracting the public, or will he use them as a pretext for a crackdown? Will the outcome of the election change Belarus’ politics? How will the results affect Belarus’ relations with Europe, Russia, and the United States? Can popular will bring about a genuinely democratic transition in spite of government crackdowns on dissent and free information?
Speakers:
Christian Caryl (Moderator): Editor, Washington Post
Konstantin Eggert: Columnist, Deutsche Welle
Natalia Kaliada: Co-Founding Artistic Director & CEO, Belarus Free Theatre
Hanna Liubakova: Journalist, Outriders
Franak Viacorka: Vice President, Digital Communications Network - Lebanon After the Explosion | August 11, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
A massive explosion in Beirut shattered glass miles away, killing more than 100, wounding thousands, and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Now Lebanon finds itself in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis. How can the people of Beirut rebuild their lives while still sheltering from a global pandemic? What are the immediate political and economic implications of this pivotal moment in Lebanese history, and what political change is necessary for true recovery to be possible?
Speakers:
Kim Ghattas: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment
Maha Yahya: Director, Carnegie Middle East Center
Paul Salem: President, Middle East Institute
Ishac Diwan: Chaire d’Excellence, Université Paris Science et Lettres - President Tsai Ing-wen Discusses the Diplomatic, Security, and Economic Challenges Facing Taiwan | August 12, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EST | Hudson Institute & Center for American Progress | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute and Center for American Progress for an address by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen followed by a discussion with Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office Representative Bi-khim Hsiao, Hudson Senior Fellow Seth Cropsey, and Center for American Progress Vice President Kelly Magsamen.
In January of this year, President Tsai won reelection to a second term. Since then, Taiwan has controlled the spread of its coronavirus outbreak, assisted other countries in combatting the pandemic, and faced increasing aggression from the Chinese Communist Party.
President Tsai will discuss these developments and the security, diplomatic, and economic challenges that face Taiwan in her second term. The conversation following President Tsai’s remarks will incorporate themes from her speech and address current U.S. policy and assistance toward Taiwan.
Speakers:
President Tsai Ing-wen: President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Bi-khim Hsiao: Representative, Taipei Economic & Cultural Office in the U.S.
Seth Cropsey: Director, Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute
Kelly Magsamen: Vice President, National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress
Neera Tanden: President & CEO, Center for American Progress
John Walters: COO, Hudson Institute - How ISIS Really Ends: The Road to Violent Extremist Disengagement & Reconciliation | August 12, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
ISIS remains a threat to regional and global security despite its territorial defeat in March 2019. The enduring defeat of ISIS will require more work to address the aftermath of conflict and to rebuild the region’s social fabric to enable people to move forward sustainably and peacefully. Of immediate concern is what to do with former ISIS combatants and their families, and the massive needs for disengagement, repatriation, and reintegration.
With thousands of former ISIS combatants from over 50 countries detained in prisons across Syria and Iraq and countless women and children in displacement camps—with nearly 70,000 in al Hol alone—countries worldwide face the difficult task of what to do with these individuals and how best to prevent future security challenges.
Meanwhile, the global COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the health and safety of those in the prisons and camps, as well as the ability of foreign governments, humanitarian organizations, and camp and prison administrations to continue operations. ISIS adherents have capitalized on this disruption by staging prison breakouts. This combination of stresses provides for an especially complicated set of tasks for governments, local communities, and the international community.
Speakers:
Nancy Lindborg (Moderator): President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Leanne Erdberg Steadman (Moderator): Director of Countering Violent Extremism, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. William “Bill” Roebuck: Deputy Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS; Senior Advisor to the Special Representative for Syria Engagement
Philippa Candler: Acting UNHCR Representative, Iraq
Maj. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich: Director of Operations, U.S. Central Command
Azadeh Moaveni: Project Director, Gender, International Crisis Group
Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.: Commander, U.S. Central Command - Gen. John E. Hyten on Progress & Challenges Implementing the National Defense Strategy | August 12, 2020 | 12:00 – 12:45 PM EST | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion with Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten on the Department of Defense’s progress in implementing the National Defense Strategy and remaining challenges. Hudson Senior Fellow Rebeccah L. Heinrichs will moderate the discussion.
Amid an ongoing pandemic, the United States is faced with a broad ranges of security challenges. Responding to the long-term threat posed by China and Russia continues to be the greatest animating force of U.S. defense policy. However, the U.S. faces other serious threats from terrorist groups and rogue states like North Korea and Iran.
General Hyten will describe how the National Defense Strategy is guiding major power competition and working to mitigate and defeat lesser threats.
How has the strategy affected force size, strategy, and deployments? What role do alliances play in achieving the priorities laid out in the national defense strategy? Are we moving at the right speed to develop and produce at scale the kinds of weapon systems we need?
General Hyten will answer these and other questions as he outlines accomplishments and the remaining work ahead.
Speakers:
Gen. John E. Hyten: Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute - Drug Trafficking and Use in Libya & North Africa | August 14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EST | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
The trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs both within and through Libya are often overlooked as factors in the country’s fragile situation. But the dynamics of illicit drug trading and use in Libya are just one manifestation of the rising drug challenge faced by North African states. Production, trafficking, and consumption are increasing and transforming across the region, posing a rising challenge to stability, security, and public health in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya.
Join USIP and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) for a presentation of recently published research on drug issues in the region. USIP experts will discuss their research on drug trafficking and consumption in Libya, while GI-TOC experts will analyze trends in the Maghreb as a whole. The event will bring together policymakers and practitioners to explore the dynamics of these issue areas and what can be done to deal with the harmful effects while mitigating harm to communities.
Speakers:
Nate Wilson (Moderator): Libya Country Manager, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Stevenson’s army, August 10
– Senators Cruz and Rubio among those newly sanctioned by China.
– SecDef Esper says US troop numbers in Afghanistan will be below 5,000 by November.
– Lawfare writer says use of IEEPA for TikTok stretches law to breaking point.
– Dan Drezner sees world collapsing around Mike Pompeo.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 9
I make a big deal in the spring course about the importance of agency authorities, capabilities, and culture. Previously I’ve noted how many of President Trump’s official documents are little more than press releases, not legally significant actions. That’s abundantly true of the four measures signed Saturday and touted as pandemic relief. Read them for yourself. Only one is called an executive order; the others are memorandums. None adds money to the fight. Instead, the agencies are told to shift money from FEMA, or to use unspent money. Officials are told to “consider” using “existing authorities” to halt evictions and provide help. They could have done that on Friday, too. To get new money, you need a new appropriation under our Constitution; to change an expiring law, you need a new law. I’ve seen good assessments of these new documents by NYT and Vox.
WaPo says Chief of Staff Meadows now spends most staff meetings on political messaging rather than pandemic issues.
FP has an analysis of the new agreement between China and Iran.
Sen. Blumenthal says we need more declassification of intelligence assessments of foreign electoral interference.
SAIS Prof James Mann says Brent Scowcroft didn’t always follow his own model of neutral honest broker.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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