Month: August 2020
Lebanon’s prospects
Middle East Institute colleagues Paul Salem and Randa Slim, both Americans of Lebanese origins, review what has happened in Beirut, the immediate reaction, and the longer-term prospects:
I am skeptical of positive change at the political top. I picture a lot of ways this goes wrong.
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Nuclear irresponsibility
Former IAEA nuclear inspector Pantelis Ikonomou writes, on a date between the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and the bombing of Nagasaki (in an excerpt from his Global Nuclear Developments, which Springer published in May 2020):
Nuclear powers regard their weapons as the most effective lever to achieve strategic goals and the status of a world power or a regional leader. The geopolitical backdrop from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki nuclear bombing simply could not be ignored. There are already a number of “nuclear suitors” or would-be proliferators who are ready to play the same card in the on-going geopolitical game. This fact cannot and should not be ignored….
In 50 years of implementation the NPT has had significant successes to show as far as consolidating the non-proliferation regime is concerned. But when it comes to the goal of nuclear disarmament, it has so far been a great failure. The five superpowers, the NPT Nuclear Weapons States, keep evading, in essence ignoring their relevant obligation to nuclear disarmament under Article VI of the NPT. Their behavior creates global frustration, awkwardness and anger, and consequently great distrust of the vast majority of “nuclear have nots” to the few “nuclear haves.” This reality could be a powerful catalyst for negative developments leading to the collapse of the NPT regime.….
Having served for over 32 years the world’s nuclear watchdog IAEA, consciously espousing its declared goals, I would like to address a few rhetorical questions to the two major nuclear powers: the US and Russia, depositaries and steady supporters of the NPT regime and the IAEA:
• Why do they revive, in full consciousness, a nuclear race 30 years after the end of the Cold War?
• Are they not aware of their actions being contrary to their undertaking under Article VI of the NPT? That is “…to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control”.
• Do they not realize that they severely endanger the non-proliferation regime?
• Do they not see the imminent risk of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation by aspiring suitors, “would-be proliferators,” in the Middle East and in north-east Asia?
• Isn’t North Korea enough?
• Why do they risk their displacement from, or initially the decreased relevance of, their global geostrategic primacy?
• Is it possible that they underestimate the growing nuclear threat to mankind?
• Is the behavior of the two UNSC superpowers responsible as patrons of world peace and security? Why do they disrespect the international community’s expectations and disregard its exasperation, anger, and fear?
The risks of the nuclear threat span around the globe and affect every country’s sovereignty and security. The universal nature of the existing nuclear threat is indisputable. It is within the powers and abilities of the leaders of Russia and the US to fulfill their utmost obligation towards their citizens and the peoples of our really small, yet so beautiful and still very young planet Earth. This is to initiate and achieve a political climate of understanding and moderation,a global nuclear “calm down” atmosphere. …
What are these leaders waiting for? What are their intentions? Nuclear crises are becoming more complex and unpredictable, more dynamic and erratic in nature. The tipping point for uncontrollable and irreversible derailment may be nearer than we think. The probability of nuclear weapons be used at any time, intentionally or by accident, is on the rise again, after decades of receding following the end of the Cold War era.
Have we not yet learned the lesson from Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
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Stevenson’s army, August 8
– Brent Scowcroft, the revered model for National Security Adviser and for his NSC system, has died at 95. SAIS PhD John Gans has an appreciation. As does author of NSC books David Rothkopf. The Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council has additional articles. I got to know and admire him while working on the Project on National Security Reform in 2006-2008. We agreed on most things, except he fiercely objected to my proposal that the NSA should be Senate-confirmed.
– A senior intelligence official has now publicly confirmed that Russia especially is trying to interfere in the US presidential elections. NYT has more background.
– Reporter Robert Draper has a look at the interagency tussle over such intelligence reports.
-NYT disparages national security threats from Tiktok and WeChat
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 7
So I’m back from a few days by a river, relaxing and canoeing. What did I miss?
– The Saudis may be developing nuclear capability.
– CIA isn’t helping GOP investigation of the Bidens. But the real issue it seems to me is to preserve exclusive responsiveness to the intelligence committees.
– Congress may block Trump drone sale policy.
– Provocative US official’s visit to Taiwan.
– We are trying to get Syrian oil.
– Esper may move US troops from Germany to Romania, Baltics, Poland.
– New book by CNN reporter says Pentagon withheld military options from Trump.
– Fred Kaplan has a good piece on Hiroshima,
AEI’s Norm Ornstein laments changes in the GOP over the decades.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Dear Lebanese friends,
I am praying you and your families are all safe after the horrendous explosion yesterday. Lebanon faced even before this tragic event a truly daunting set of challenges. Now the political system, governance, the economy, the environment, the health system, and the society will be tested even more.
I know you as clever, devoted, and patriotic people. Wherever you live now you maintain strong attachments to Lebanon and try to help its people and society come to terms with their many difficulties. I admire your efforts and hope that this incident will bring out the best in both the Lebanese who live in Lebanon and its far-flung diaspora.
You are of many faiths and traditions, which in my view is a great strength. You will need cohesion to face the future, which will pose much greater challenges in the months to come than the immediate effects of the explosion yesterday. You will need help from abroad, which should not be denied. And you will need a spirit of devotion and solidarity not only among yourselves but extending also to others who have profited from Beirut in so many different ways.
My condolences to the bereaved, best wishes for quick and complete recovery to the wounded, and hopes to all of you for repair of your wounded spirits. In my tradition, we talk of obligations to tikkun olam (repair of the world) and gemilut chasadim (acts of loving kindness). May you be the recipients of both, having given so much of both to others.
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Peace Picks | August 3 – 9, 2020
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Coronavirus and the Conflict in Syria | August 4, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM | US Institute of Peace | Register Here
Countries in conflict have been especially hard hit by COVID-19, with the pandemic compounding numerous pre-existing challenges. In Syria, limited humanitarian access, a devastated health care system, and unreliable data have hampered the response—particularly in areas outside of regime control, where autonomous authorities struggle with minimal testing capabilities and access to aid. As the virus begins to make significant inroads into the conflict-affected country, there are also worries about how the virus will impact the millions of Syrians currently displaced.
Speakers:
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: introductory remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
David Lillie: Executive Director, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Mohammad Al-Haj Hamdo: Health Coordinator in Northeast Syria, Syria Relief
Dr. Hamza Alsaied Hasan: Quality and Development Manager for Northwest Syria, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Amjad Rass: Chairman of the Northern Syria Medical Relief Committee, Syrian American Medical Society
Dr. Bachir Tajaldin: Senior Program Manager for Turkey, Syrian American Medical Society
Mona Yacoubian (moderator): Senior Advisor to the Vice President, Middle East and Africa, U.S. Institute of Peace
- Gender and Displacement in the Middle East during COVID-19 | August 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
As the global refugee crisis continues amid the spread of Covid-19 and economic collapse, displaced women face growing dangers in the Middle East. Women refugees and IDPs are at greater risk of domestic and gender-based violence, and many struggle with new roles as both primary income earners and sole caregivers of their children in unfamiliar environments. Additionally, sexist legal systems have become a push factor for women refugees, and insufficient legal protections exist for women refugees in many host countries.
How does the lens of gender help to understand the female migrant experience? How do changing social and economic roles impact the livelihoods and safety of displaced women? What policies and practices can be implemented to provide greater protection from violence and insecurity for women refugees?
Speakers:
Shaza Al Rihawi: Researcher, Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories; co-founder, Network for Refugee Voices
Miriam Azar: In-Country Representative for Lebanon and Turkey, The Malala Fund
Devon Cone: Senior advocate for women and girls, Refugees International
Dalal Yassine: Executive director, Middle East Voices
Hafsa Halawa (moderator): Nonresident scholar, MEI
- Jordan in 2020: Protests and Pandemic | August 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The start of the new decade in Jordan has been marred by unrest. In January, thousands of Jordanians took to the streets to protest both President Trump’s Middle East peace plan and the gas deal signed between Israel and Jordan. This wave of dissent came on the heels of the 2019 protests against increased austerity measures, a follow up to the 2018 movement that saw the resignation of Hani Mulki’s government. Though Jordan quickly adopted stringent measures to combat the virus, the economy will suffer a huge blow, exacerbating Jordan’s existing development challenges and popular discontent. Furthermore, the pandemic prompted troubling restrictions on freedom of speech, with an April decree stating that sharing anything that may “cause panic” about the pandemic is punishable with up to three years in prison.
How have protest movements in Jordan been impacted by Covid-19, and what do recent protests over honor killings and gender based violence portend for progress in this area? How do these long standing grievances meet the current moment of the impending Israeli annexation? What will be the long term impact of the pandemic on Jordan’s economy and human rights, especially for the country’s millions of refugees?
Speakers:
Laith Al Ajlouni: Political economist
Rana Husseini: Journalist, author, and human rights activist
Sara Kayyali: Syria researcher, Middle East and North Africa Division, Human Rights Watch
Oraib Al-Rantawi (moderator): Founder and director general, Al Quds Center for Political Studies
- Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? A Conversation with Robert Draper | August 5, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Watch Here
The 2003 invasion of Iraq is one of the most debated, misunderstood, and consequential foreign policy episodes in modern U.S. history. In To Start a War, New York Times bestselling author Robert Draper offers the definitive account of the march to war in Iraq.
Join us for a conversation between Robert Draper and Ambassador William J. Burns, former U.S. deputy secretary of state, about the war, its consequences, and its lessons.
Speakers:
Robert Draper: contributing writer to the New York Times Magazine and National Geographic and a correspondent to GQ
William J. Burns: President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously served as U.S. deputy secretary of state.
- Pakistan’s National Security Outlook | August 5, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
Join USIP for a conversation with Dr. Moeed Yusuf, Special Assistant to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on national security and strategic policy planning and a member of Pakistan’s coronavirus response team. The discussion will look at what these developments mean for Pakistan’s national security outlook towards its neighbors and its relationship with the U.S., as well as how the pandemic impacts Pakistan’s security and economic policy.
Speakers:
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks: President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. Moeed Yusuf: Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on National Security and Strategic Policy Planning, Pakistan
Former Associate Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Amb. Richard Olson (moderator): Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace and former Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan
- After Qassem Suleimani: The Islamic Republic’s Strategy for the Arab World | August 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The January assassination of Qassem Soleimani shocked the leadership in Tehran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not expected the United States to escalate tensions between the two countries in such a manner. The assassination of Soleimani was an effort to change Tehran’s strategic calculations and policies for the Middle East. With continued sanctions imposed by the United States, regional tension, and the loss of a key decision maker, Iran is facing intensified challenges to achieve its goals at home and in the region. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to welcome a group of experts to assess Iranian policy towards the Arab world following the death of Soleimani and to discuss how Arab states are reacting to Iran’s actions.
How has Iran’s strategy in the Arab world performed following Soleimani’s death? In what ways have proxy forces in the Middle East that operate under Tehran’s command been affected? Who is left to make key decisions about the Islamic Republic’s involvement in the Arab states, and are we faced with a weaker IRGC Quds force after Soleimani? Finally, what do Arabs think of Iranian policies aimed at them?
Speakers:
Tarek Osman: Author and broadcaster
Ariane Tabatabai: Middle East fellow, Alliance for Securing Democracy, German Marshall Fund of the United States
Morad Vaisibiame: Journalist and editor, Radio Farda, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Director, Iran program and senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI
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