Serbia is oscillating, not turning

A Serbian friend writes:

Serbia has recently purchased refurbished Russian-made MiG-29 combat aircraft, Mi17, and Mi35 helicopters, Pantsir -S medium-range surface-to-air and anti-aircraft system, Chinese-built CH—92A combat drones (UCAVs) and according to some media reports the Chinese FK-3 anti-aircraft system. These purchases have made some in the West believe Belgrade is making a sharp Eastern turn, de-facto abandoning EU integration and decades of partnership with NATO within the Partnership for Peace (PfP). An influx of  Chinese investments in the Serbian economy and infrastructure amplifies that impression. Is this a swing to the East or might be something else?

Let’s begin with the basics. Since 1999, the US and EU have paid little attention to the Balkans. The US was busy with Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and other conflict areas, delegating post-conflict stabilization of the Western Balkans to the EU. Despite the 2003 Thessaloniki declaration committing to integrate the region, the Union has hesitated. Slovenia and Croatia became member states, but Macedonia was on hold for decades due to the name dispute with Greece, and other countries are only slowly moving through the bureaucratic phases of the accession process.

The Western Balkans was too poor and too unstable for quick integration, which the EU didn’t want after its bad experience with Bulgaria and Romania. For nine years the EU tried to facilitate dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, without tangible results. Bosnia remains divided. Nothing has dramatically changed in the region for decades. Many countries of the region struggle with the “Balkan Ghosts” of nationalism, corruption, negative stereotypes, poverty, and brain drain. The shadow of an autocratic collective mindset has never dissipated. Democratic processes and institutions are not safe from overpowering executive power, the judiciary is not truly free and independent, the grip of executive power and influential individuals over media has never disappeared. The NGO community, once strong, almost perished after funders lost interest. Few checks and balances remain. Populist right-wing movements got stronger, mobilizing masses for the political benefit of local elites.

The EU is also not immune to right-wing populism, nationalism, and xenophobia, which are growing trends in some member states. There is no linear progress and the everlasting victory of European democratic values, which are threatened by the heritage of autocratic mentality and collective mindset. Things turn quickly back to the “old track” if the population does not nourish and genuinely accept democracy.

Serbia in particular had its struggles after devastating sanctions, dictatorship, and conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo, which not only crippled the economy but also damaged national values and consciences. Yugoslav identity collapsed. Many Serbs searched and tried to rediscover who they were and where they belonged. Their ambitious, intelligent, and arrogant leader, Slobodan Milosevic, did not understand the world after the collapse of the Eastern Block. Serbian policy was reactionary, hovering between the desire to protect Serbs in other former Yugoslav republics, a self-image of strength and greatness, and the general feeling of rejection by almost all others, including most of the international community. Isolated and outcast, Serbia ended up in limbo, with no proper way out. The policy of neutrality, which is to some extent based on non-alignment mindset from the Yugoslav communist era, was the only logical way to go. The result is Serbia tolerated by all, but not entirely trusted by anyone.

For 30 years, Serbia has not been able to decide to go either East or West. The pendulum swings from side to side.  This requires constant juggling and balancing, which is dangerous, expensive, and unproductive.

China and Russia are far away and no country in the region is big enough to be an important ally.

Russian economic presence in Serbia is limited mostly to the energy sector (since 2009 the Serbian National Oil Company NIS is majority-owned by Gazprom-Neft) and media (Sputnik and some web portals). Russia is today not a big investor. Russian infrastructure loans are not fully utilized. Moscow sells arms cheaper than Western ones, but there are no free rides or brotherhood policy there. Serbia has also recently purchased Airbus H145M helicopters, and President Vucic recently announced that Serbia could purchase some weapons from the US and Israel. After its abortive effort to take over the Pristina Airport in June 1999, Russia abandoned Kosovo, as it has no profound geostrategic interest in the region. Moscow continued to help Serbia politically in difficult times, for which Serbia is grateful. Moscow keeps its foot in the door and tries to sustain its influence to prevent Serbian membership into NATO, which was never a real option due to the 1999 bombing and Serbia’s policy of military neutrality. Serbian and Russian interests coincide with the independence of Kosovo since Russia opposed it.

Russia has never however favored Serbia over other countries of the region. Croatia and Bulgaria were always crucially important countries for Russia. Almost 15 years ago Russian President Putin decorated former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic for contributing to the anti-fascist struggle. No one from Serbia ever received such an honor. During the Communist period, the Soviet leadership did not favor Serbs, who represented an obstacle to Communism due to their deep commitment to Orthodoxy, Serbian identity, and national traditions. During the 1990s Yeltsin did not favor Milosevic since his wife, Mirjana Markovic, openly supported Yeltsin’s opponents. Additionally, Yeltsin did not want to jeopardize relations with the US and the West over Serbia. Former Prime Minister of Russia Chernomyrdin allegedly delivered a threat to Milosevic that Serbia would be flattened if he refused to withdraw from Kosovo.

Historical ties to Russia are however strong. For decades former Yugoslavia purchased Soviet weapons, which with some modifications were sold to third countries. The Soviets turned a blind eye because they did not want to jeopardize fragile political relations between Stalin and Tito. Most Yugoslavs at that time, including the Serbian population, considered the Red Army and Soviets brothers and liberators. The Kingdom of Yugoslavia also hosted pro-czarist Russian emigrants who had fled after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. These well-educated emigrants helped the progress of Serbian society since they worked as medical doctors, engineers, musicians, etc. They are deeply integrated into Serbian society.

Serbia belongs to Europe, and that Europe is a foundation of its foreign policy. Although there were some initiatives in a past to establish closer ties with Moscow (proposed by Vojislav Seselj’s Serbian Radical Party), it is hard to imagine any substantial alliance with no common border. Such an alliance would also be impossible since Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states. Christian Orthodox heritage and generally mutually positive sentiment are not sufficient foundations for a substantial deepening of relations. Therefore, although Serbian bilateral relations with Russia are stable, friendly, and good, that does not mean that Serbia is making a sharp turn to the East.

The same logic applies to China.

Serbia is just too small to play an important role in China. Beijing wants to expand throughout the Balkans to counter US influence, exploiting the historic relationship with Hoxha’s Communist Albania to spread its influence also to Kosovo, and Macedonia. As elsewhere, China is supporting infrastructure in Serbia as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Only $561 million of $ 2.2 billion in Chinese funds are investments however; the rest is loans. China has invested $8.9 billion in the UK. Does it mean that the UK is a pro-Chinese country?

Serbia is not going East or West. It will continue to trade with the EU, develop a substantial partnership with NATO, nourish friendly relations with Russia, and get cheap loans from China until a major shift occurs. Serbia is balancing many moving parts to survive until the EU decides to open its doors. Although the EU is Serbia’s largest trading partner as well as its biggest donor and investor, Belgrade is still in the outer lobby waiting for the Union to move forward. The main problem is that the Western Balkans is not high on the EU agenda. While the European idea is slowly fading away in the region, a vacuum is growing. It will not remain empty long.

Problems in the Western Balkans cannot be resolved with magic wands from Brussels and Washington. Although foreigners share responsibility for the current situation, the main responsibility falls on local people. If they can find a way to peacefully contain destructive spirits of the past, move on with life and profoundly reform their societies by rule of law and respect of fundamental values of democracy, no foreign help is needed. Local ownership is the key to sustainable progress. Healing the wounds from the past and dismantling the war generation of political leadership (which Pristina is currently experiencing – Belgrade underwent the same experience a decade earlier) are just initial steps, which will not lead to “collective catharsis” or mentality change.

Locals have more to do. They need to strengthen their administrative capacities, deepen their knowledge, dedicate more funds for R&D, and open their minds to be more cosmopolitan through hard work and education. They should travel more and interact with their neighbors, giving an honest chance to a mutual future. That will not be easy, since “dreams of a better past” and zero-sum interpretation of history are deeply rooted. The EU could help to strengthen knowledge-based education in the region, devoting more funds for education and science.  The Union could also assist all nations of the Western Balkans to travel freely and enjoy Europe. Interaction of young people with their peers in the EU, US, UK, and other countries is crucially important for developing a prejudice-free post-war leadership generation. This is all within our reach. It does not require too much political capital for implementation. Breaking negative stereotypes is the first step to free our minds from the pitfalls of the past.