Reality in the land of Oz

President Trump has been lining up what he thinks of as diplomatic triumphs the past few weeks. Here’s the reality behind the Wizard’s Oz:

Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. They have been a long time coming, but they have finally started in Doha. Main credit goes to Zal Khalilzad. He was given lemons and made lemonade. Told to get a diplomatic outcome that would enable US withdrawal, he first reached an agreement with the Taliban not to support international terrorists if the US agreed to withdraw. He then squeezed Afghanistan President Ghani, who doesn’t want US withdrawal because he knows his own security forces are not up to the task of defeating the Taliban.

Ghani dragged his feet but slowly came around, fearing the US might cut and run. The lesson is clear: if you are a US ally who depends on Washington for your survival, you may end up doing things you really don’t want to do, like talk about the future of your country with people whose aim is to chase you and your scheme of government out. But Zal gets credit for at least a partial withdrawal of US troops before the election, which was Washington’s main concern. Nineteen years of fighting Afghanistan’s war really is enough.

UAE and Bahrain diplomatic relations with Israel. These are not “peace” agreements as Israel has not been at war with either the Emirates or Bahrain, unlike Egypt and Jordan (which have already made peace with Israel). But Arab acceptance of Israel is significant. It is not too difficult to imagine Saudi Arabia following suit.

The texts of the agreements appear to contain no implicit or explicit reference to the “land for peace” formula or UN Security Council resolution 242. This will upset the Palestinians. It means Prime Minister Netanyahu, who only agreed to suspend the threat of annexing a large part of the West Bank, can renew the threat once things are firmed up with the UAE and Bahrain. The agreement between Israel and the UAE provides for resident ambassadors, which likely means Abu Dhabi will have to buckle to Israel’s demand that the embassies be located in Jerusalem, another big loss for the Palestinians.

The UAE and Bahrain are confirming for all to see what has been the case for a long time: they do a lot of business with Israel. The nature of that business is important. The Israelis provide much of the technology that keeps Arab autocrats in power and their citizens quiescent, something much appreciated in the Gulf. It is true that Israel also shares with most of the Gulf fear of Iran, but their views are not identical. Neither the Emirates nor Bahrain can afford a war with Iran, whose missiles can easily strike their capitals. Israel is willing to take the risk if needed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

3. Kosovo/Serbia economic normalization. The agreements signed at the White House earlier in the month on separate pieces of paper aren’t worth much. Their most significant provision is Israel’s recognition of Kosovo. Serbia has said it will renege on establishing its embassy in Jerusalem if that happens.

Economic normalization between Serbia and Kosovo is a good idea, but the main elements of such a move are nowhere to be found in the parallel agreements, which mainly call for implementation of existing transport deals. Missing are all the really important aspects of economic normalization: removal of non-tariff barriers, acceleration of procedures at the border, disposition of state-owned property like the Trepca mining complex, mutual recognition of licensing, free movement of people and capital, coordination of banking regulations…. All of that remains to be negotiated in the so-called “mini-Schengen” group Kosovo has agreed to join. This is by far the least significant of the Trumpeted diplomatic achievements.

These are not earthshaking diplomatic achievements. None of them rank much above a three on the Richter scale. They come now because of the election. All the countries involved have been anxious to help Trump in his re-election bid, not least because that is what he requires of them. The Wizard’s Oz is a land that revolves around him, but it is not a land of big achievements.