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India no longer wants to be a loner

Kashmir is a region fraught with turmoil. Three nuclear powers, two of them the most populous nations on Earth, have vied for over a half-century over the ownership of this mountainous region. Even amidst the instability, no fatal violence has occurred between China and India in 45 years. That uneasy peace was shattered earlier this summer, when Chinese and Indian troops clashed in the remote Ladekh region. This event was a wake-up call for many about the changing India-China relationship. USIP’s Vikram Singh spoke with former Indian diplomat Nirupama Rao to discuss how worsening Indian relations with China, the worldwide pandemic and recession catalyzed a dramatic shift in Indian foreign policy. 

Nirupama Rao: Former Indian Foreign Secretary and Ambassador (China, United States)

Vikram Singh (moderator): Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute for Peace 

India squeezed between China and Pakistan

Indian-Chinese relations were not always this tense, maintains Former Ambassador Rao. In the decades since Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s pivotal visit to China 1988, India and China were able to foster a working partnership. Both countries were economically and militarily similar at the time and border disputes were left ambiguous and undecided. But, the economic resurgence of China (which Rao attributes to “American favoritism) allowed it to outpace India, and now China is beginning to flex its newfound economic and military might. 

Rao believes that under Xi Jinping, China has become swept up in what she calls an “overzealous nationalism.” India feels threatened by Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and in Sri Lanka, where China recently acquired a port on a 99-year lease. India is also confronted with China’s support for Pakistan, which Rao suggests is China’s “only friend.” In particular, China’s recent attempts to nationalize the Kashmir dispute are proof to the Indian government that China is not a neutral party in this conflict. According to Rao, India considers the China-Pakistan relationship to be a “thorn in India’s side.”

While China and India have established a new ceasefire in Ladekh, she suggests that this agreement alone will not reduce tensions in the region. 

Looking for friends

India historically has prided itself on strategic independence. This is beginning to change, asserts Rao. India is beginning to reach  out to what she describes as its “natural democratic partners” in the Subcontinent, in Southeast Asia, and especially the United States. The most striking aspect of her remarks was her emphasis on deepening relations with the United States, traditionally a foe of Indian priorities in the United Nations sphere. Now, India hopes to capitalize on discontent among China’s neighbors, who she suggests have been “strung along by China on a leash.”  

Rao asserts that it is India’s hope to develop a multilateral network of states in the region to maintain freedom of the seas as well as collaborate and develop interstate infrastructure. She views the United States as a natural partner in this endeavor, and welcomes increased American involvement in the region.  Such candor about strengthening US-Indian ties is indicative of an inflection point in Indian foreign policy.

Amidst the chaos, a silver lining

While Rao initially suggested that India’s current prospects vis-à-vis China are rather bleak, she concluded on a hopeful note by describing her work as founder of the South Asian Symphony Foundation, an orchestra modeled after the iconic Arab-Israeli orchestra. Rao hopes that, through music, diverse South Asian cultures can obtain peace through musical harmony.

To watch the event in full, click here.