Month: September 2020
Stevenson’s army, September 19
The death of Justice Ginsburg will confront the Senate with the task of choosing a successor. While the end to possible filibusters of such nominations makes it likely that Leader McConnell will be able to get approval of the president’s nominee before Thanksgiving, you can expect contentious debate, clashing Constitutional arguments, and parliamentary maneuvers. This CRS report has good background on the process. But note this historical point: Before 1916, the Judiciary Committee considered Supreme Court nominations behind closed doors. Thus, until that year, there are no entries in the “Public hearing date(s)” column. Rather, committee sessions on Court nominations typically were limited to committee members discussing and voting on a nominee in executive session, without hearing testimony from outside witnesses. In 1916, for the first time, the committee held open confirmation hearings on a Supreme Court nomination—that of Louis D. Brandeis to be an Associate Justice—at which outside witnesses (but not the nominee) testified. More days of public hearings (19) were held on the Brandeis nomination than on any Supreme Court nomination since. The Brandeis hearings, however, did not set immediately into place a new policy of open confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominations, since each of the next six nominations (during the years 1916 to 1923) was either considered directly by the Senate, without referral to the Judiciary Committee, or was acted on by the committee without the holding of confirmation hearings.
From 1925 to 1946, public confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominations became the more common, if not invariable, practice of the Judiciary Committee. In 1925, Harlan F. Stone became the first Supreme Court nominee to appear in person and testify at his confirmation hearings. During the next two decades, the Stone nomination was one of 11 Court nominations that received public confirmation hearings before either the full Judiciary Committee or a Judiciary subcommittee, while five other nominations did not receive public hearings. One of the five nominees not receiving a public confirmation hearing was Senator James F. Byrnes, whose nomination in 1941, as noted earlier, was considered directly by the Senate without referral to the Judiciary Committee. From the first Supreme Court appointments in 1789 to 2017, Presidents have made 162 nominations to the Court. Table 1 shows, in the “Final action by Senate or President” column, that the Senate confirmed 125 of these nominations, or roughly three-fourths. Of the 37 nominations that were not confirmed, 11 were rejected by the Senate (all in roll-call votes), 11 were withdrawn by the President, and 15 lapsed at the end of a session of Congress without a Senate vote cast on whether to confirm. The 37 nominations not confirmed by the Senate represented 32 individuals, some of whom were nominated more than once. Six individuals whose initial nominations were not confirmed were later renominated and confirmed for positions on the Court.
WSJ says the Saudi Royal Family is divided over policy toward Israel.
The other day I sent a story about how rich the Taliban is. WSJ today says ISIS is also flush with cash.
A think tank study says the Intelligence Community doesn’t really know what its customers want.
A Columbia law prof uses the occasion of the dedication of the memorial to Dwight Eisenhower on the National Mall to reflect on Ike’s view of war powers.
I think Eisenhower should be praised for insisting on congressional approval of major military actions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 18
The respected annual poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs finds sharp partisan divisions among Americans, even though they support engagement abroad. WaPo has a good report.
For Democrats, the five leading threats to US vital interests are, in order, the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, racial inequality in the United States, foreign interference in U.S. elections and economic inequality in this country.
For Republicans, the top five threats to vital US interests are the development of China as a world power, international terrorism, large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the country, domestic violent extremism and Iran’s nuclear program. Here’s the survey.
NYT says China is losing friends in Europe.
Senate Democrats have a $350 billion package to counter China.
Politico says China issue won’t determine US elections. Former DHS aide to VP Pence on coronavirus quits, blasts Trump
StratCom head sees no need for nuclear test. [Note: this is an issue in net week’s exercise]
NATO report says Taliban is flush with cash.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 17
Today is the anniversary of the signing of the Constitution in Philadelphia in 1787.
Germany is offering the US a Nordstream2 deal.
Reuters first reported planned US sarms sales to Taiwan, now WSJ has more details.
RealClearDefense has more on nuclear weapons modernization — a topic in next week’s exercise.
NYT says Africom wants to expand US drone operations into Kenya.
WaPo reports reduced US journalist presence in China.
DNI now agrees to election briefings.
Vast KGB files declassified.
Brown study documents increased militarization of US police.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 16
Pew survey finds falling world views of US
Jeffrey Goldberg lists winners and losers in new Israel-UAE-Bahrain agreements.
Here’s another F-35 to UAE report.
WSJ says US is using Magnitsky Act to impose sanctions on Chinese companies helping to build overseas bases.
Politico sees a toxic feud between DNI & intelligence committees.
As you know, I worked for Joe Biden many years ago [1981-5]. FP’s James Traub has a very good analysis of how Biden thinks about foreign policy.
Just before the Jewish High Holy Days, there’s a discouraging report on the levels of ignorance about the Holocaust among younger Americans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Reality in the land of Oz
President Trump has been lining up what he thinks of as diplomatic triumphs the past few weeks. Here’s the reality behind the Wizard’s Oz:
Peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government. They have been a long time coming, but they have finally started in Doha. Main credit goes to Zal Khalilzad. He was given lemons and made lemonade. Told to get a diplomatic outcome that would enable US withdrawal, he first reached an agreement with the Taliban not to support international terrorists if the US agreed to withdraw. He then squeezed Afghanistan President Ghani, who doesn’t want US withdrawal because he knows his own security forces are not up to the task of defeating the Taliban.
Ghani dragged his feet but slowly came around, fearing the US might cut and run. The lesson is clear: if you are a US ally who depends on Washington for your survival, you may end up doing things you really don’t want to do, like talk about the future of your country with people whose aim is to chase you and your scheme of government out. But Zal gets credit for at least a partial withdrawal of US troops before the election, which was Washington’s main concern. Nineteen years of fighting Afghanistan’s war really is enough.
UAE and Bahrain diplomatic relations with Israel. These are not “peace” agreements as Israel has not been at war with either the Emirates or Bahrain, unlike Egypt and Jordan (which have already made peace with Israel). But Arab acceptance of Israel is significant. It is not too difficult to imagine Saudi Arabia following suit.
The texts of the agreements appear to contain no implicit or explicit reference to the “land for peace” formula or UN Security Council resolution 242. This will upset the Palestinians. It means Prime Minister Netanyahu, who only agreed to suspend the threat of annexing a large part of the West Bank, can renew the threat once things are firmed up with the UAE and Bahrain. The agreement between Israel and the UAE provides for resident ambassadors, which likely means Abu Dhabi will have to buckle to Israel’s demand that the embassies be located in Jerusalem, another big loss for the Palestinians.
The UAE and Bahrain are confirming for all to see what has been the case for a long time: they do a lot of business with Israel. The nature of that business is important. The Israelis provide much of the technology that keeps Arab autocrats in power and their citizens quiescent, something much appreciated in the Gulf. It is true that Israel also shares with most of the Gulf fear of Iran, but their views are not identical. Neither the Emirates nor Bahrain can afford a war with Iran, whose missiles can easily strike their capitals. Israel is willing to take the risk if needed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
3. Kosovo/Serbia economic normalization. The agreements signed at the White House earlier in the month on separate pieces of paper aren’t worth much. Their most significant provision is Israel’s recognition of Kosovo. Serbia has said it will renege on establishing its embassy in Jerusalem if that happens.
Economic normalization between Serbia and Kosovo is a good idea, but the main elements of such a move are nowhere to be found in the parallel agreements, which mainly call for implementation of existing transport deals. Missing are all the really important aspects of economic normalization: removal of non-tariff barriers, acceleration of procedures at the border, disposition of state-owned property like the Trepca mining complex, mutual recognition of licensing, free movement of people and capital, coordination of banking regulations…. All of that remains to be negotiated in the so-called “mini-Schengen” group Kosovo has agreed to join. This is by far the least significant of the Trumpeted diplomatic achievements.
These are not earthshaking diplomatic achievements. None of them rank much above a three on the Richter scale. They come now because of the election. All the countries involved have been anxious to help Trump in his re-election bid, not least because that is what he requires of them. The Wizard’s Oz is a land that revolves around him, but it is not a land of big achievements.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, September 15
-An American think tank has a new revealing poll of attitudes toward foreign policy. More reassuring than dramatic.
– New data on how much dark money there is in US politics. More details at opensecrets.org.
-Military Times has helpful list of upcoming hearings.
– WaPo reports Israeli concerns about F-35 sale to UAE. [Note: this issue will come up in next week’s exercise.]– Putin & Lukashenko discuss “integration.“
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
RSS - Posts
