Month: September 2020
Peace Picks | September 14 – September 18, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Session Three | September 14, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference: Session Three on Monday, September 14, 2020. This monthly webinar series will provide opportunities for in-depth discussion and analysis of developments in the South China Sea over the past year and potential paths forward. This session will feature a panel discussion on dispute management in the South China Sea, including coordination mechanisms for law enforcement, fisheries, and other natural resources.
Speakers:
Amanda Hsiao: Project Manager, Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
Ivy Kwek: Research Director, Research for Social Advancement (REFSA), Kuala Lumpur
Greta Nabbs-Keller: Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland
2. Global Democracy and the Coronavirus Fallout | September 14, 2020 | 2:30 – 4:00 PM CEST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Europe | Register Here
As the coronavirus pandemic tests governments and societies around the world, it is also stressing the already fragile state of global democracy by undermining critical democratic processes, sidelining human rights, and unfettering authoritarianism.
How can Europe’s response to the crisis address the immediate issues and bolster democracy, protect human rights, and foster longer-term peace and stability around the world?
On the eve of International Democracy Day, join Per Olsson Fridh, Anu Juvonen, and Stefano Sannino for a discussion to explore the state of global democracy, European foreign policy, and democracy support amid the pandemic. Rosa Balfour will moderate.
Speakers:
Per Olsson Fridh: State Secretary to the Minister for International Development Cooperation, Sweden.
Anu Juvonen: Executive Director of Demo Finland, Political Parties of Finland for Democracy.
Stefano Sannino: Deputy Secretary General for economic and global issues of the European External Action Service.
Rosa Balfour: Director of Carnegie Europe.
3. Venezuela on the Brink of Famine: The Impact of Covid-19 | September 15, 2020 | 10:00 – 10:45 AM EDT | CSIS | Register Here
Hospitals in Venezuela are reporting deadly surges in Covid-19, a pandemic the country is utterly unprepared to treat. The Maduro regime has limited testing to a few government-controlled labs, casting doubt on official government tallies. And, while aid and technical assistance have trickled in—facilitated by a humanitarian agreement signed by the opposition and the regime in early June—much more is needed. Gasoline remains scarce despite highly publicized gasoline shipments from Iran, paralyzing food distribution systems. 35% of adults are eating only once per day. Facing economic uncertainty, tens of thousands of vulnerable migrants have chosen to return, and the regime has accused them of being ‘biological weapons’. Now the poorest country in Latin America, Venezuela is on the verge of famine with a third of its population in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.
This virtual event will shed light on the gravity of the situation on the ground and how the Covid-19 pandemic has further deepened the humanitarian crisis. We will hear from representatives of civil society organizations that are monitoring and responding to the humanitarian crisis, including Cáritas Venezuela and Acción Solidaria.
Speakers:
Susana Raffalli: Senior Humanitarian Adviser, Cáritas Venezuela
Feliciano Reyna: President, Acción Solidaria.
4. Inaugural Women Building Peace Award Celebration | September 15, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
Every day, women around the world are leading movements to create enduring, peaceful societies. Yet all too often, women’s roles in ending and preventing conflict go unnoticed. The U.S. Institute of Peace is committed to changing that. With the inaugural Women Building Peace Award, USIP will honor the inspiring work of women peacebuilders whose courage, leadership, and commitment to peace stand out as beacons of strength and hope.
From Africa and the Middle East to Southeast Asia and South America, USIP’s 10 Women Building Peace Award finalists have overcome conflict and violence to forge hope for a brighter future. Individually, they have transformed themselves, their communities, and their countries through their relentless and creative approaches to building peace. Together, their stories reveal the resilience of the human spirit in the face of overwhelming odds and the power of women to mold lasting peace from seemingly endless conflict.
Join USIP for the inaugural Women Building Peace Award ceremony and hear from these inspiring women, whose collective work stretches across continents and spans generations, as they share how they made their communities and the world a better, more peaceful place.
The ceremony will also feature peace strategist and consultant to the United Nations Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Nobel Peace Prize winner Leymah Gbowee, Academy Award winning actor Geena Davis, former USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg, and other prominent women in media and peacebuilding who are working across the United States and globally to create an environment that enables girls, women, and all people to realize their potential as peacebuilders, leaders, and agents of change.
The event will conclude with the announcement of the sole 2020 Women Building Peace Award recipient. The awardee, whose substantial and practical contributions to peace serve as an inspiration and guiding light for future women peacebuilders, will receive a $10,000 prize.
Speakers:
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, MBE: Founder & CEO, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Director, Centre for Women, Peace and Security, London School of Economics and Political Science
Megan C. Beyer: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Marcia Myers Carlucci: Co-chair, Women Building Peace Council
Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Kelley E. Currie: Ambassador at Large for Global Women’s Issues, U.S. Department of State
Geena Davis: Founder, Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media
Leymah Gbowee: 2011 Nobel Peace Laureate; Founder/President, Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa (GPFA)
Michelle J. Howard: Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Nancy Lindborg; Former President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace; Honorary Women Building Peace Council Chair
5. Defense Policy and the 2020 Election | September 15, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The 2020 election takes place at an extraordinarily polarized moment in American history. Having claimed over 180,000 lives and destroyed millions of jobs, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate headlines and will be at the forefront of voters’ minds when they cast their ballots in November. Yet, America also faces a wide array of national security threats beyond the pandemic, threats that require attention, planning, and investment from national leadership. While the National Defense Strategy places a rising China and a revanchist Russia at the heart of defense planning, other threats such as extremist actors, climate change, and transnational criminal organizations challenge the U.S. as well. Moreover, as the nation embraces historically high deficits to tackle the pandemic, Congress and the administration will need to make difficult trade-offs to pay for it all, promising a contentious debate in the coming year about the future of the defense budget.
On September 15, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, as part of the Policy 2020 event series, will discuss these and other issues as the nation prepares for the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
The Policy 2020 event series aims to empower voters with fact-based, data-driven, non-partisan information so they can better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office in 2020.
Speakers:
Michael E. O’Hanlon: Director of Research – Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Frank A. Rose: Co-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Maya MacGuineas: President – Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Jessica Mathews: Distinguished Fellow – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
6. Is a Plan B Needed to Save Afghanistan? | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The future of Afghanistan’s constitutionally liberal democratic system is very much at issue. On its survival rests the aspiration of the greatest number of its people, the deep investment of the international community in the country’s stability and wellbeing, and ultimately the security of the region and beyond. Negotiations are beginning in what is certain to be a lengthy process that may in the name of a compromise trade away social and economic gains realized over nearly two decades. Afghanistan has additionally to cope with the disengagement of foreign forces just at a time when their leverage militarily and diplomatically could be critical. In the absence of a verifiable ceasefire, the country confronts a prospect of exploding violence and possible descent into chaos.
Can Afghanistan pull itself together to not only protect its achievements but to overcome past errors? Should Afghans and their international partners think about formulating a Plan B to save the republic while striving for true reconciliation with the insurgency? The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel of experts to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Anthony Cordesman: Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ali Jalali: Distinguished professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Saad Mohseni: Chairman and CEO, MOBY Group
David Sedney: President, American University of Afghanistan
Muqaddesa Yourish: Former Afghan deputy minister of commerce; member, MOBY Group Media; political activist
Marvin Weinbaum, moderator: Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, Middle East Institute
7. American Leadership in Advancing the Sustainable Development Goals | September 16, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM EDT | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The devastating health and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed and exacerbated stark inequalities and vulnerabilities in the United States. At the same time, protests sparked by the tragic killing of George Floyd have put the spotlight on America’s long history of racial injustice. The commitment to equity, justice, and environmental preservation reflected in the sustainable development goals (SDGs) is more critical today than ever, a foundation to respond to these crises and to build a future that leaves no one behind. Building off a successful first gathering last year on the margins of the UN General Assembly, this event will showcase local innovation, leadership, actions, and commitments from all parts of the American society, including cities, businesses, universities, philanthropy, and youth activists. Their leadership is crucial to a recovery that advances equity and sustainability here at home, and provides a fundamental basis for U.S. credibility and leadership abroad on the defining issues of our day.
On Wednesday, September 16, from 1:00 – 2:30 p.m. EDT, the Brookings Institution and the UN Foundation will co-host a high-level virtual event to showcase the power of the SDGs in the United States.
Speakers and Itinerary:
WELCOME
John R. Allen: President, The Brookings Institution
SPOTLIGHT 1
Fatimata Cham: Youth Poet and Activist
CONTEXT
Anthony F. Pipa: Senior Fellow – Global Economy and Development
KEYNOTE
Hon. Eric Garcetti: Mayor – Los Angeles
PANAL: ENGINES OF ACTION FOR THE SDGS
Penny Abeywardena: Commissioner for International Affairs – Mayor’s Office, City of New York
Majestic Lane: Chief Equity Officer – City of Pittsburgh
Rose Stuckey Kirk: Chief Corporate Social Responsibility Officer – VerizonPresident – Verizon Foundation
Dr. Yvette E. Pearson: Associate Dean for Accreditation, Assessment, and Strategic Initiatives; George R. Brown School of Engineering – Rice University
Kathleen McLaughlin: President – Walmart FoundationExecutive Vice President and Chief Sustainability Officer – Walmart, Inc.
SPOTLIGHT 2: LAUNCH OF CMU’S VOLUNTARY UNIVERSITY REVIEW
James H. Garrett Jr.: Provost and Chief Academic Officer – Carnegie Mellon University
LAUNCH OF HAWAII’S STATEWIDE REVIEW OF THE SDG’S & LOOKING FORWARD
Amb. Elizabeth Cousens: President and CEO – UN Foundation
Sen. Brian Schatz: Senator – Hawaii
Gov. David Y. Ige: Governor – Hawaii
SPOTLIGHT 3
Dustin Liu: UNA-USA Youth Observer to the UN
WRAP UP
Kaysie Brown: Vice President for Policy and Strategic Initiatives – UN Foundation
8. Toward Never Again: U.S. Leadership in Atrocity Prevention | September 16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
The Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act of 2018 calls upon the United States to pursue a government-wide strategy to identify, prevent, and respond to atrocity risk. Critically, the Act underscores the importance of a White House-led interagency working group charged with monitoring atrocity risk and responding to high-risk or imminent atrocity situations. The Atrocity Early Warning Task Force has refined the U.S. approach to atrocity prevention through enhanced early warning and improved interagency coordination to mitigate atrocity risks.
Join USIP and the State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations for a discussion on institutionalizing “never again,” as well as interagency efforts to prevent, mitigate, and respond to atrocity risks.
Speakers:
Philippe Leroux-Martin: Director of Governance, Justice & Security, U.S. Institute of Peace
Denise Natali: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of State
Naomi Kikoler: Director, Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum
Robert Destro: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, U.S. Department of State
Stephanie Hammond: Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary, Peacekeeping and Stabilization Operations, U.S. Department of Defense
Kirsten Madison: Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Peter Marocco: Assistant to the Administrator, Bureau of Conflict Prevention and Stabilization, U.S. Agency for International Development
Morse Tan: Ambassador-at-Large, Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State
9. India’s Foreign Policy Outlook: An Inflection Point? | September 17, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
How is India responding to rapid changes in the international environment? New Delhi has been managing an unprecedented border crisis with China, warily watching a peace process with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and navigating complex relationships with its neighbors—all amid the global COVID-19 pandemic. How does India define its foreign policy outlook and priorities in a changing global and regional order? Where do continued strong bilateral ties with the United States fit in?
Join USIP as we host one of India’s foremost diplomats and scholars, former Foreign Secretary and former Ambassador to both China and the United States Nirupama Rao, for a candid conversation that explores how Indian leaders are managing challenges in the Indo-Pacific and what we may expect from Indian foreign policy going forward. Ambassador Rao will reflect on her experience and the increasingly relevant lessons from her forthcoming book on India-China relations after World War II.
Speakers:
Andrew Wilder: Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Nirupama Rao: Former Foreign Secretary of India; Former Indian Ambassador to China and the United States
Vikram Singh: Senior Advisor, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
10. Belarus and Democracy in Europe | September 18, 2020 | 9:30 AM EDT | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Authoritarianism is on the rise across the world, and it is posing a serious challenge to democracy and the post-World War II international system. In Central and Eastern Europe, Freedom House states that there are fewer democracies today than at “any point” since 1995. The remarkable events in Belarus over the past month, however, stand as a strong counterpoint to that trend. The democratic impulse remains powerful, and the refusal of Belarusians to accept another fraudulent presidential election has initiated a standoff whose outcome is uncertain. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who ruled Belarus for 26 years without a serious challenge to his power, now faces one of the strongest pro-democracy movements in Europe in recent years.
Speakers:
Linas Linkevičius: Lithuanian Foreign Minister
Melinda Haring: deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Vladimir Kara-Murza: chairman of the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom and vice president of the Free Russia Foundation
Hanna Liubakova: journalist at Outriders and fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Damon Wilson: executive vice president at the Atlantic Council
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Stevenson’s army, September 14
China calls US biggest threat to peace.
Amb. Branstad quitting.
Sen. Johnson [R-Wisc] suggests replacing Incirlik with Greek base.
FP writer hits France & US for Sahel policies.
CRS report explains federal role in wildfire relief.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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If you want historic, you’ll be disappointed
Here’s an interview I did last week for Shpat Blakcori of Radio Television Dukagjini:
Q: Prime minister of Kosovo, Avdullah Hoti, has said that within a year we except state recognition from Serbia, how do you comment on this issue?
A: The Prime Minister knows better than I do what will happen, but I see little sign that President Vucic is getting ready to recognize Kosovo. A year from now Vucic will be entering a pre-electoral period, which will make it more difficult. But I certainly hope what the Prime Minister says is true.
Q: Did Kosovo make the right decision, to recognize Jerusalem as part of Israel?
A: I think it is a mistake to pre-judge the outcome of the final status negotiations between Israel and Palestine, even if I am also convinced West Jerusalem and most of the Old City will remain in Israel as its capital.
Q: How you do see the relations between USA and EU, regarding the dialogue, it seems that they are not finding a common ground.
A: The State Department claims they are cooperating well. I’m not seeing it. I’m seeing an American Administration that is doing all it can to help President Trump get re-elected, regardless of the implications for Kosovo, Serbia, and the European Union. The “economic normalization” deal is far from normalizing economic relations, which in any event is a subject more suitable for Europe than the US. Washington has more clout when it comes to political issues, as the recognition of Kosovo by Israel suggests.
I also did this for Fitim Gashi of KOHA:
Q: How do you evaluate the Agreement in Washington, where Kosovo and Serbia pledged before the United States for Economic Normalization, between two countries.
A: The document doesn’t even really begin to normalize economic relations between Kosovo and Serbia. What it does is to call for implementation of some existing transportation agreements and aligns Pristina and Belgrade with US policy on airport screening, Hizbollah, Jerusalem and a few other things.
Q: Is there any point of this agreement that can bring benefits for parties and lead to full normalization?
A: I doubt it. I would look to the EU-sponsored talks for more serious results. The Washington meeting was a campaign gimmick that failed.
Q: In the initial drafts of the agreement there was a point that speaks of the commitment of the parties towards mutual recognition, but after the refusal of Serbia it wast lifted. Could this issue have been pushed forward, since the deal was mediated in the White House?
A: It could have been pressed. It wasn’t. That is one of many signs that this was not a serious effort.
Q: An agreement of this kind, how much can it guarantee peace and the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia?
A: It is a very small step forward, but the harm it did was in the Middle East, not the Balkans. The pledge to move two embassies to Jerusalem hurts the prospects for a peace settlement there.
Q: If we go back to the past, which agreements you consider can be called “Historic” in the context between Kosovo and Serbia?
A: I really haven’t seen any historic agreements between Serbia and Kosovo yet. But the habit of talking to each other is a good one. I am an admirer of the technical agreements and wish they were fully implemented. I also think the 2013 Brussels political agreement is a good one, so long as the Association of Serb Municipalities is established in accordance with the decision of Kosovo’s Constitutional Court.
Q: What elements should the next agreement with Serbia contain, to be so called “Historic?” Recognition and exchange of ambassadorial representatives, as well as membership in international organizations and the United Nations. That would be historic.
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Stevenson’s army, September 12
– Politico tries to puzzle out what Trump meant by a new secret weapon.
– Vox analyzes key points in the DHS whistleblower’s complaint.
-Politico finds politicization of CDC reports.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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No Nobel Prize
Amy Hawthorne, who knows more about the Middle East than Jared Kushner will ever learn, tweeted yesterday:
Amy W. Hawthorne@awhawthTo state the obvious, the “peace in the Middle East” theme touted by Trump and Kushner re UAE-Israel agreement is disconnected from reality given that the 2 countries never fought a war and the agreement does nothing to end today’s actual Middle East wars
just details I guess
But maybe a bit more explication is required, especially in response to the right-wing hoopla about getting a Nobel Prize for their dear leader.
As Amy suggests, the agreement between Israel and the Emirates has nothing to do directly with any past or current conflict in the Middle East. There is no history between them of bombardment, invasion, expulsion, displacement, or occupation.* The UAE has participated directly or through proxies in wars in Yemen, Syria, and Libya, but those have little or nothing to do with Israel.
Kushner, who designed Trump’s still-born proposal for peace with the Palestinians, likes to pretend that the agreement with the UAE will advance that prospect. It is more likely to dim it. It weakens and divides Palestinian support in the Arab world at a time when Israel is already so strong it feels no real pressure to negotiate. While the UAE extracted suspension of Israel’s plans to annex Palestinian land, that provision is temporary. Kushner, a strong supporter of Israelis settlements in the West Bank intended to block formation of a contiguous and viable Palestinian state, is interested in Palestinian surrender to a one-state solution with unequal rights. That won’t do anything for Middle East peace.
Trump’s presidency has significantly worsened prospects not only for peace between Israelis and Palestinians but also between Arab states and Iran. His withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal allowed Iran to enrich much more uranium, putting it within far less than a year of having the fissile materials required to build a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia is likewise moving towards nuclear weapons, as is Turkey. We face the real prospect of a nuclear arms race among the three most powerful countries in the Middle East, unleashed by a President who thought he could bring the Iranians to heel with sanctions. That effort has failed.
We could review a few more non-contributions to peace in the Middle East:
- arms sold to both the Emirates and Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen,
- withdrawal of US troops from eastern Syria that undermined America’s Kurdish allies,
- greenlighting of Turkey’s expansion across its southern border to create a buffer zone in northern Syria,
- support for the most brutal military dictatorship Egypt has ever seen,
- flirting with would-be autocrat General Haftar in Libya and providing only erratic rhetorical support to the internationally recognized government.
President Trump’s best bid for contributing to peace is in Afghanistan, which I suppose is “greater” Middle East. Unable to defeat the Taliban, the Trump Administration gave Special Envoy Khalilzad the job of getting the US out. He reached an agreement with the Taliban for US withdrawal as well as a commitment to intra-Afghan talks between the Taliban and the Kabul government. Trump may well boast about the US withdrawal, but he has to be careful not to draw attention to the fact that it is only vaguely conditions-based and constitutes a retreat from America’s longest war without anything like victory. Zal has made lemonade from lemons, but there is not much sweetener available and the intra-Afghan talks, as well as the fighting, are likely to go on for a long time.
President Obama left the Middle East in bad shape. President Trump has managed to make things worse. As of a year ago, he had actually increased the number of US troops deployed in the region. It is certainly arguable that the former didn’t deserve the Nobel Prize he got. The latter would deserve it far less. Of course the Norwegian prize committee knows that and won’t be tempted. Trump’s egotistical neediness to match the achievements of the black president is pitiful, not praiseworthy.
*PS: the same goes for Bahrain.
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Stevenson’s army, September 11
On this 19th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks Politico interviews people born on that tragic day.
NYT has background on the upcoming talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
WSJ says Biden’s China policy would be a lot like Trump’s.
Biden spoke to Stars and Stripes about defense.
Dan Drezner calls Sen. Sasse’s congressional reform ideas silly.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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