Month: September 2020
Stevenson’s army, September 4
Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg cites 4 unnamed sources to report disparaging remarks Pres. Trump made about US military personnel, including calling war dead “losers.”
AP has confirmed the story. [Since Goldberg is close to Jim Mattis, I suspect Mattis and John Kelly as likely sources.]
WSJ says WH is likely to nominate Koch Institute analyst who favors rapid US withdrawal as ambassador to Afghanistan. Previous ambassadors were career diplomats.
FP says political appointee to USAID conflict prevention bureau has done damage there.
SAIS prof Ed Joseph has background on Serbia-Kosovo conflict with WH meeting today.
A student in Congress class shares a “reform Congress’ article from the late John DIngell [D-Mich].
CJR editor explains how ratings drive TV news coverage at CNN and MSNBC
Reuters reports US troops to Lithuania because of Belarus unrest.
More from Military Times poll: troops want to rename bases.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 3
Senate Intelligence Chairman Rubio says his panel will get in person briefings, contrary to earlier DNI announcement.
I agree with Norm Ornstein’s call for keeping the Senate filibuster but requiring 40 members to show up to keep one going. I’d also end filibusters on the motion to proceed.
I also agree with Dan Drezner’s conclusion that Pompeo rather than Tillerson has been the worst ever Secretary of State.
Profiles of 2 presidential advisors that have no legal authority, but are powerful because they have the evident backing of the president: Navarro and Atlas.
On the other hand, the president once again issued a press release disguised as a legal order telling OMB to stop funding Democrat-run cities. If you read the actual document, it just says to see if any current law lets the agency do this sort of thing.
And Facebook says it won’t allow any new political ads in the week before the elections.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Why bother with the Balkans?
The short answer to this question is the election campaign. Failed Ambassador to Germany/failed Acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell is trying to deliver a foreign policy spectacular to President Trump’s re-election prospects, which right now are dim. The model is the Israel/UAE agreement: bragging rights to something the President can say no one else has ever achieved. Thus the invitation to Serbian President Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti to meet under White House auspices and maybe even get a meeting with the President, if the two leaders give him something he can use in the electoral campaign.
The Administration is suggesting that the focus will be on economic issues, perhaps just implementation of agreements on air, rail, and highway links between the two countries. That however would be hard to dress up as worthy of the President’s attention, so more than likely some other things will be on the agenda: maybe special economic zones on the border/boundary between the two, or some sort of agreement to redevelop the mining complex known as Trepca and manage the water supply known as Gazivoda, both of which transcend the border/boundary. Depending on the details, where the devil resides, those could be useful economically.
Everyone is going out of their way to deny that any ethnically-based exchange of territory between Kosovo and Serbia is contemplated, a bad idea that would destabilize the region and help Vladimir Putin justify Russian aggression in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. But that of course doesn’t mean someone won’t try to revive the zombie and repackage it as a Trump achievement. It would be consistent both with his pattern of being good to Putin and with his white nationalist inclinations. Prime Minister Hoti has pledged his government will oppose the idea. His thin majority in parliament would likely evaporate if he returned to Pristina trying to sell it.
There is little likelihood of a so-called “final” agreement that normalizes relations between Kosovo and Serbia through mutual diplomatic recognition, exchange of ambassadorial-level representatives, and membership for Kosovo in the United Nations. President Vucic has telegraphed that he is not prepared for anything big of this sort, despite the fact that he is in a strong political position at home and could likely do it with minimal and temporary political damage. Prime Minister Hoti insists that full normalization is the goal of the talks. He would be a historic figure in Kosovo if he could achieve normalization, but it doesn’t look likely during this visit to Washington. If it happens, I’ll be the first to applaud.
One important issue the President and Prime Minister have seemed ready to proceed on is missing people from the 1999 Kosovo war and its aftermath. The still unidentified whereabouts of the missing (bodies) is inexcusable. This should have been settled soon after the war. But better late than never, as it would give both Hoti and Vucic something their citizens would appreciate on returning from Washington.
But that is not what Trump wants or needs. He is looking for a diplomatic triumph to parade in front of the American electorate. Few Americans care about the Balkans, but in our current highly polarized political scene a Rose Garden ceremony, which President Trump has promised if the two do something really good, might give the flagging Trump campaign a bit of a fillip. That is certainly what Grenell needs, if only for getting the next job he can fail at.
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What isn’t said is revealing
President Trump and Vice President Pence are assiduously trying to hide why the President made an urgent visit to Walter Reed last year. Trump explicitly denied it was due to strokes, which may be the cat out of the bag. But whatever it was, you can be pretty sure it was important from the effort they are making to cover it up.
The same is true for Rod Rosenstein’s ending the investigation into Trump’s financial ties to Russia when he turned the FBI’s work over to Special Counsel Mueller, who should never have accepted a truncated mandate. Rosenstein may not even know what he was hiding, but as Deputy Attorney General he repeatedly did the President’s bidding. If the instruction came from the President, you can be pretty sure whatever was covered up in this maneuver was important.
So now, in addition to his many more blatant disqualifications from a second term, we’ve got two partially hidden reasons to be worried: the President could be both financially beholden to Vladimir Putin and unfit for office by reason of his health. There really isn’t much doubt that these issues. That Trump relied on Russian money he acquired via Deutsche Bank is at this point well-established. No one rushes a President to Walter Reed without good reason.
These are serious matters that require elucidation, but they are unlikely to get it before the election. They would be reason enough for me to vote against Trump, if I hadn’t decided that five years ago on other grounds. I’m hoping a few of the fence-sitters will now think twice: do you really want a President who can’t tell us why he made a rushed visit to Walter Reed? Do you really want one who might be selling out the country for the sake of Russian financing for his real estate? Remember: he still hasn’t raised with Putin Moscow’s bounties to Taliban for killing Americans. Nor has he objected to the Kremlin poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the single most important opposition figure in Russia.
Never mind Trump’s mindboggling defense of a 17-year-old vigilante accused of murder for killing two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin, or his failure to offer to visit the family of a man shot seven times in the back there by a policeman. The President excused that violent act with the allegation that he must have “choked,” like a golfer. The President’s preference for white perpetrators over their black victims is no surprise, but no less reprehensible for its predictability.
Worried about other issues? No one pays any attention now, but
- The budget deficit was ballooning even before Covid-19 due to Trump’s tax cut for the wealthy. GNP and job growth had slowed below the pace set in the Obama Administration.
- The Chinese are not meeting their obligations under the agreement that suspended the tariff war to import vastly more agricultural products from the US.
- The promise of more spending on infrastructure has gone unfulfilled.
- The Social Security/Medicare tax holiday the President declared will leave many people with a giant tax bill at the end of the year, so most companies are not opting to implement it.
- The suspension of housing evictions just announced comes without the $100 billion in funding the Democrats have included in the latest Covid relief bill that the Republicans refuse to consider.
These are all relatively undiscussed issues that even the most ardent supporters of Trump should contemplate. Instead, the President expects them to respond to the siren call of “LAW AND ORDER,” intended to appeal to white suburban fear of minorities and stem the hemorrhaging of Trump’s support there. Anyone who falls for that deserves what they get: an unqualified president who has failed at almost everything, except lining the pockets of the wealthy and appointing equally unqualified judges to the Federal courts. That’s another subject too few are talking about.
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Stevenson’s army, September 2
- DOD’s annual report on China’s military power was released yesterday. Here’s a story. And here’s the report.
- NYT notes increased Russian military provocations around the globe.
Facebook & Twitter say Russians are spreading election disinformation now. - But ABC says DHS politicized an intelligence report about that.
- Senate Democrats consider changes to filibuster rules.
[FYI, I favor keeping the filibuster but making it rarer and harder to pursue.] - Fred Kaplan says US military are far better than most police at crowd control.
- SAIS grad Robin DIckey has written a report on US policy toward space militarization.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Serbia is oscillating, not turning
A Serbian friend writes:
Serbia has recently purchased refurbished Russian-made MiG-29 combat aircraft, Mi17, and Mi35 helicopters, Pantsir -S medium-range surface-to-air and anti-aircraft system, Chinese-built CH—92A combat drones (UCAVs) and according to some media reports the Chinese FK-3 anti-aircraft system. These purchases have made some in the West believe Belgrade is making a sharp Eastern turn, de-facto abandoning EU integration and decades of partnership with NATO within the Partnership for Peace (PfP). An influx of Chinese investments in the Serbian economy and infrastructure amplifies that impression. Is this a swing to the East or might be something else?
Let’s begin with the basics. Since 1999, the US and EU have paid little attention to the Balkans. The US was busy with Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and other conflict areas, delegating post-conflict stabilization of the Western Balkans to the EU. Despite the 2003 Thessaloniki declaration committing to integrate the region, the Union has hesitated. Slovenia and Croatia became member states, but Macedonia was on hold for decades due to the name dispute with Greece, and other countries are only slowly moving through the bureaucratic phases of the accession process.
The Western Balkans was too poor and too unstable for quick integration, which the EU didn’t want after its bad experience with Bulgaria and Romania. For nine years the EU tried to facilitate dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, without tangible results. Bosnia remains divided. Nothing has dramatically changed in the region for decades. Many countries of the region struggle with the “Balkan Ghosts” of nationalism, corruption, negative stereotypes, poverty, and brain drain. The shadow of an autocratic collective mindset has never dissipated. Democratic processes and institutions are not safe from overpowering executive power, the judiciary is not truly free and independent, the grip of executive power and influential individuals over media has never disappeared. The NGO community, once strong, almost perished after funders lost interest. Few checks and balances remain. Populist right-wing movements got stronger, mobilizing masses for the political benefit of local elites.
The EU is also not immune to right-wing populism, nationalism, and xenophobia, which are growing trends in some member states. There is no linear progress and the everlasting victory of European democratic values, which are threatened by the heritage of autocratic mentality and collective mindset. Things turn quickly back to the “old track” if the population does not nourish and genuinely accept democracy.
Serbia in particular had its struggles after devastating sanctions, dictatorship, and conflicts in Croatia, Bosnia, and Kosovo, which not only crippled the economy but also damaged national values and consciences. Yugoslav identity collapsed. Many Serbs searched and tried to rediscover who they were and where they belonged. Their ambitious, intelligent, and arrogant leader, Slobodan Milosevic, did not understand the world after the collapse of the Eastern Block. Serbian policy was reactionary, hovering between the desire to protect Serbs in other former Yugoslav republics, a self-image of strength and greatness, and the general feeling of rejection by almost all others, including most of the international community. Isolated and outcast, Serbia ended up in limbo, with no proper way out. The policy of neutrality, which is to some extent based on non-alignment mindset from the Yugoslav communist era, was the only logical way to go. The result is Serbia tolerated by all, but not entirely trusted by anyone.
For 30 years, Serbia has not been able to decide to go either East or West. The pendulum swings from side to side. This requires constant juggling and balancing, which is dangerous, expensive, and unproductive.
China and Russia are far away and no country in the region is big enough to be an important ally.
Russian economic presence in Serbia is limited mostly to the energy sector (since 2009 the Serbian National Oil Company NIS is majority-owned by Gazprom-Neft) and media (Sputnik and some web portals). Russia is today not a big investor. Russian infrastructure loans are not fully utilized. Moscow sells arms cheaper than Western ones, but there are no free rides or brotherhood policy there. Serbia has also recently purchased Airbus H145M helicopters, and President Vucic recently announced that Serbia could purchase some weapons from the US and Israel. After its abortive effort to take over the Pristina Airport in June 1999, Russia abandoned Kosovo, as it has no profound geostrategic interest in the region. Moscow continued to help Serbia politically in difficult times, for which Serbia is grateful. Moscow keeps its foot in the door and tries to sustain its influence to prevent Serbian membership into NATO, which was never a real option due to the 1999 bombing and Serbia’s policy of military neutrality. Serbian and Russian interests coincide with the independence of Kosovo since Russia opposed it.
Russia has never however favored Serbia over other countries of the region. Croatia and Bulgaria were always crucially important countries for Russia. Almost 15 years ago Russian President Putin decorated former Croatian President Stjepan Mesic for contributing to the anti-fascist struggle. No one from Serbia ever received such an honor. During the Communist period, the Soviet leadership did not favor Serbs, who represented an obstacle to Communism due to their deep commitment to Orthodoxy, Serbian identity, and national traditions. During the 1990s Yeltsin did not favor Milosevic since his wife, Mirjana Markovic, openly supported Yeltsin’s opponents. Additionally, Yeltsin did not want to jeopardize relations with the US and the West over Serbia. Former Prime Minister of Russia Chernomyrdin allegedly delivered a threat to Milosevic that Serbia would be flattened if he refused to withdraw from Kosovo.
Historical ties to Russia are however strong. For decades former Yugoslavia purchased Soviet weapons, which with some modifications were sold to third countries. The Soviets turned a blind eye because they did not want to jeopardize fragile political relations between Stalin and Tito. Most Yugoslavs at that time, including the Serbian population, considered the Red Army and Soviets brothers and liberators. The Kingdom of Yugoslavia also hosted pro-czarist Russian emigrants who had fled after the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917. These well-educated emigrants helped the progress of Serbian society since they worked as medical doctors, engineers, musicians, etc. They are deeply integrated into Serbian society.
Serbia belongs to Europe, and that Europe is a foundation of its foreign policy. Although there were some initiatives in a past to establish closer ties with Moscow (proposed by Vojislav Seselj’s Serbian Radical Party), it is hard to imagine any substantial alliance with no common border. Such an alliance would also be impossible since Serbia is surrounded by NATO member states. Christian Orthodox heritage and generally mutually positive sentiment are not sufficient foundations for a substantial deepening of relations. Therefore, although Serbian bilateral relations with Russia are stable, friendly, and good, that does not mean that Serbia is making a sharp turn to the East.
The same logic applies to China.
Serbia is just too small to play an important role in China. Beijing wants to expand throughout the Balkans to counter US influence, exploiting the historic relationship with Hoxha’s Communist Albania to spread its influence also to Kosovo, and Macedonia. As elsewhere, China is supporting infrastructure in Serbia as a part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Only $561 million of $ 2.2 billion in Chinese funds are investments however; the rest is loans. China has invested $8.9 billion in the UK. Does it mean that the UK is a pro-Chinese country?
Serbia is not going East or West. It will continue to trade with the EU, develop a substantial partnership with NATO, nourish friendly relations with Russia, and get cheap loans from China until a major shift occurs. Serbia is balancing many moving parts to survive until the EU decides to open its doors. Although the EU is Serbia’s largest trading partner as well as its biggest donor and investor, Belgrade is still in the outer lobby waiting for the Union to move forward. The main problem is that the Western Balkans is not high on the EU agenda. While the European idea is slowly fading away in the region, a vacuum is growing. It will not remain empty long.
Problems in the Western Balkans cannot be resolved with magic wands from Brussels and Washington. Although foreigners share responsibility for the current situation, the main responsibility falls on local people. If they can find a way to peacefully contain destructive spirits of the past, move on with life and profoundly reform their societies by rule of law and respect of fundamental values of democracy, no foreign help is needed. Local ownership is the key to sustainable progress. Healing the wounds from the past and dismantling the war generation of political leadership (which Pristina is currently experiencing – Belgrade underwent the same experience a decade earlier) are just initial steps, which will not lead to “collective catharsis” or mentality change.
Locals have more to do. They need to strengthen their administrative capacities, deepen their knowledge, dedicate more funds for R&D, and open their minds to be more cosmopolitan through hard work and education. They should travel more and interact with their neighbors, giving an honest chance to a mutual future. That will not be easy, since “dreams of a better past” and zero-sum interpretation of history are deeply rooted. The EU could help to strengthen knowledge-based education in the region, devoting more funds for education and science. The Union could also assist all nations of the Western Balkans to travel freely and enjoy Europe. Interaction of young people with their peers in the EU, US, UK, and other countries is crucially important for developing a prejudice-free post-war leadership generation. This is all within our reach. It does not require too much political capital for implementation. Breaking negative stereotypes is the first step to free our minds from the pitfalls of the past.
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