Month: October 2020
What difference will it make?
Americans are voting this year mainly on domestic issues: Covid-19 response, the economy, healthcare, racism, as well as social/cultural issues like abortion and religion. The differences on those issues between candidates Biden and Trump are gigantic. The rest of the world is more interested in how the outcome will affect them. Here are the clear differences and similarities on major national security and foreign policy issues:
- NATO and other allies: Trump’s America First policies led to neglect and even disdain for America’s traditional allies in Europe and the Asia Pacific. Most of them will welcome a Biden victory, if only because they want to be consulted and for some because they disagree with the direction Trump has taken. The United Kingdom, if it remains united, might be an exception to this rule, as Prime Minister Johnson has shared Trump’s hostility towards the European Union. The ethnic nationalist leaders of Hungary and Poland will also regret a Biden victory, but none of those countries counts as heavily within Europe as France and Germany, which are fed up with Trump.
- Russia: While the Trump Administration has been vigorous in imposing sanctions and providing lethal assistance to Ukraine against Russian aggression, the President himself has been soft on Vladimir Putin, Russian interference in US elections, and Russian targeting of US troops in Afghanistan. This mixed signaling will end with Biden, who will try to revive arms control agreements with Moscow but at the same time push back against Russian influence within the US, in Europe, and in the Middle East.
- China: Trump has conducted a notably erratic policy towards China, initially praising President Xi, even for his response to Covid-19, then turning in the other direction and blaming the Chinese for the virus. Trump has lost the tariff war with Beijing, which is failing even to implement the first stage agreement to import more US products. The Chinese won’t be happy to see a more competent and traditional American president who pursues both competition and cooperation, without erratic swings: competition where interests do not overlap, cooperation where they do.
- North Korea: Kim Jong-un has outmaneuvered Trump and continues his buildup of nuclear and missile capabilities, which are more threatening to the US and its allies than four years ago. Biden may not be able to do much about that, but he will certainly want to consult more fully with South Korea and Japan on how to respond.
- Iran: Biden and Trump share the goal of negotiating an expanded and prolonged nuclear agreement. The difference is that Trump has tried to get Tehran back to the negotiating table entirely with “maximum pressure” sticks (expansive economic sanctions and threats of military action), while Biden is prepared to offer at least some carrots in the form of sanctions relief. It is not clear that Tehran will be more responsive to Biden, but certainly Trump’s approach has failed for four years and can’t be expected to succeed. Any change in direction in Tehran will be after its June presidential election.
- The Arab Gulf: Trump made a point of befriending the autocrats of the Gulf, in particular Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Biden won’t be sword-dancing in Riyadh on his first trip abroad and will pressure the Saudis and Emiratis to end the war in Yemen while supporting the effort to get more Arab countries to normalize relations with Israel. Trump helped OPEC+ (that’s OPEC plus Mexico and Russia as well as some smaller producers) to end the oil price war this spring. I doubt you’ll find Biden working to jack up world oil prices.
- Israel/Palestine: Here the candidates differ not only on methods but also on goals. Trump has sought to make a two-state solution impossible. Biden will support a negotiated two-state outcome, but he is unlikely to reverse Trump’s move of the US embassy to Jerusalem. Jared Kushner’s peace plan will however be shredded, as it allowed annexation of a large part of the West Bank and would have made a Palestinian state impossible. Biden will be prepared to pressure Israel to make a Palestinian state possible.
- US troops abroad: I would expect Biden to continue the effort to negotiate a decent exit for US troops from Afghanistan that Zal Khalilzad has been engaged in. He will likely also want a decent, negotiated exit for US troops from Syria and Iraq as well as reductions in the rest of the Middle East. He may reverse Trump’s decision to move some US troops from Germany, but there too he will want reductions.
- Trade and investment: Biden may look for a way of returning the US to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has gone ahead without Washington. He might also try to revive the idea of freer trade and investment between the US and EU. But if he does these things, he will need to sell them on the basis of strong labor and environmental standards applied in partner countries.
- Climate change: Biden will rejoin the Paris Climate Change Agreement that Trump withdrew from and back strong domestic legislation to reduce US carbon emissions.
Peacefare readers in the Balkans will want to know what difference Biden will make there. While the region doesn’t rate with the ten issues cited above, Biden will restore the traditional US policy: support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the existing states, including in particular Kosovo as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina. He will also seek full normalization of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, including mutual recognition and exchange of ambassadors as well as UN membership for Kosovo. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, he could consider still another effort to reform the Dayton constitution for the country, which has hampered its functionality.
In other regions, things are less clear, but Biden would certainly pay more positive attention to Africa and to Latin America, the former because of its strong economic growth potential and the latter to reduce incentives for immigration. Biden might return to President Obama’s softer line on Cuba and would likely seek to continue the Trump effort to court India, but with greater attention to its current government’s domestic abuses against Muslims and other minorities. Neither Biden or Trump will want to see President Maduro continue to rule Venezuela.
So, yes, the election of Biden will make a big difference outside the United States as well as inside. The Iranian band above has got it right.
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Stevenson’s army, October 31
538 has a simple map showing when we’ll likely have solid results in each state.
FP says China is still a big issue in the Montana Senate race.
NYT says Trump now takes PDB briefings only from political appointees.
WaPo notes that Trump has turned from critic to frequent user of executive orders.
Politico speculates that Biden would increase NSC staff from current 110 to closer to Obama’s 174.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 30
I want to stop reading election news. There’s nothing new under the sun. The polls have been consistent for weeks, so now the news is in outliers. What if they are true? Now reporters are hedging their bets by discovering little facts that point the other way. If the polls are “wrong,” I don’t think it will be methodological error but turnout problems because of postal and voting logistics and suppression efforts.
Meanwhile, it does look like NSA O’Brien is looking for a bigger job. SecDef?
Defense News jumps on the post-election bandwagon by profiling the possible new SASC chairman. Congress has been formally notified of F35 sale to UAE.
Former APSA Congressional Fellow Paul Musgrave has a clever piece on the problems of moving to Canada.
Just Security has been running a series of articles on legal issues in foreign policy. Today, I’d urge reading the pieces on War Powers Reform and Treaty Withdrawals.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 29
DNI went beyond agreed language in saying Iranian election interference was to damage Trump.
Do the president and Justice Kavanaugh realize that their election day ballot deadline could prevent military ballots from being counted?
Insider Trump critic, “Anonymous,” has outed himself.
WSJ says US states face depression-level revenue crisis.
WaPo say administration has regularly attacked the civil service.
SAIS Prof Ed Joseph says Trump “lost the Balkans”
Breaking Defense says Congress has evaded earmark ban with Buy American provisions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Chastened but strengthened, a good paradigm
Slobodan Kostic of Belgrade newsweekly Vreme asked questions on the occasion of its 30th anniversary. I replied:
Q: Sharp political divisions, racial antagonisms, unemployment is rising, pandemic is getting worse and worse… What is really going on with US?
A: All the things you point to are really going on. But it is important to remember that the US is a democracy with consolidated institutions that have been through many difficult periods: just in my lifetime, World War II (I was born toward the very end), the assassinations of 1963 and 1968, the civil rights movement and the protests against the Viet Nam war, the inflation and economic challenges of the 1970s, 9/11…. I think we will emerge from our current challenges chastened but strengthened.
Q: How is it possible most powerful country in the world has come to this situation?
A: Powerful countries can make bigger mistakes than less powerful countries. The invasion of Iraq and the election of Donald Trump are in my view two spectacular ones.
Q: Who is responsible for that?
A: All Americans are responsible and have paid a high price.
Q: If you take a look from distance, why did people vote for Donald Trump?
A: In my view: white racial resentment is the single strongest factor, especially among older men. But of course there are many others: stagnating incomes for the middle class, job losses, failure to meet international competition, resentment of recent immigrants, etc.
Q: Some Serbian officials and the Serbian community in U.S. directly support Donald Trump’s re-election. Is it really in Serbia’s interest to support him?
A: Trump has tilted in favor of Serbia in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue. But that hasn’t brought any substantial benefits to Belgrade. I’m sure his people have also pressured hard for supportive statements in return. But wise governments don’t take sides in American elections, whose outcome is always uncertain.
Q: Is politics rallying Serbian Americans to support Trump in 2020 interfere in US domestic?
A: Certainly some Serbs would object if the Americans openly rallied support for one or another candidate in Serbia, as we did for Kostunica in 2000. But frankly no one but Serb Americans noticed Belgrade’s enthusiasm for Trump. Serb Americans could be a factor in Ohio, though not an overwhelming one.
Q: What can be consequences of that decision?
A: The consequence so far has been a Biden statement that many Serbs see as a promise of tilting against Serbia. It wasn’t smart to provoke that.
Q: Is that support one aspect of political illusion that Kosovo is still part of Serbia?
A: I don’t think there really is a political illusion that Kosovo is still part of Serbia. All of Serbia’s politicians understand that they will never again govern Kosovo and that they will have to recognize its sovereignty and independence as a pre-condition for accession to the European Union. They use the Kosovo issue to curry domestic political support and to distract attention from poor economic performance.
Q: But a lot of people in Serbia still claim to love the `heartland’ of Kosovo more than life itself, repeating a mantra on “the Serb holy land and spiritual cradle”?
A: If they do, they should pay a visit there. Very few do.
Q: After years of negotiations, Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic signed an “economic normalization” deal at a ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump. Can that deal, during the time, become a historic breakthrough?
A: I think it is thin gruel. There is a lot of meat to be added if economic normalization is really to take place.
Q: Trump’s normalization agreement provides for increased economic collaboration between Kosovo and Serbia, that can be important for both sides?
A: Sure: start with eliminating non-tariff barriers and accepting Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state in all regional and international organizations, even if there is no bilateral recognition.
Q: You think the Agreement is just tool in Donald Trump’s re-election campaign which will be forgotten very quickly in the United States?
A: Correct. It isn’t really worth much more than the paper it is printed on unless there are massive efforts to follow up. So far, little to nothing, except in the statement of the Chambers of Commerce. That was of some value.
Q: What do you think, will Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic recognize Kosovo?
A: He says not. I believe him. I think it likely Serbia will have a new president before it recognizes Kosovo.
Q: On the other hand, Serbia has been working on adapting to the EU acquis; is President of Serbia Vucic the one who is going to qualify Serbia for membership in the EU?
A: He can make a lot of progress on the technical aspects of the acquis. But he is falling far short on the requirements for independent media and judiciary, not to mention the status of Kosovo.
Q: It’s clear is Serbia is deteriorated democracy, regime controls most Serbian media, ruling Serbian Progressive Party eroded political rights and civil liberties, putting pressure on political opposition; can you say Aleksandar Vucic is some aspects worse than Slobodan Milosevic?
A: No, I’m not prepared to go there. Milosevic was guilty in my view of mass murder and even genocide, though he died before his conviction. Vucic acted as Milosevic’s information minister and is therefore guilty by association, but I don’t think his current behavior comes anywhere near Milosevic’s homicidal impulses.
Q: Do you think Aleksandar Vucic plays Milosevic role in Serbia?
A: Within Serbia, he has accumulated the kind of autocratic power Milosevic had. And he clearly has ambitions to control Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Kosovo. But he is not doing to non-Serbs in those places what Milosevic did.
Q: Despite that, looks like Vucic has become Europe’s favorite Balkan’s leader. Has EU done enough to deal with his autocracy?
A: No. The EU needs to listen more to German Ambassador to the UN Heusgens.
Q: Why is EU so silent over backslide of democracy in Serbia? Are they afraid of Russian influence in Serbia?
A: I suppose that is a factor, but by not insisting on democracy and ensuring there are consequences for backsliding the EU is allowing Serbia to fall increasingly into the Russian gravitational space.
Q: Has Russia really seen the Balkans as a battleground where it can try to obstruct NATO and EU expansion?
A: Yes, that is its objective, including by disrupting democratic governance in Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But Moscow is not expending a lot of resources in this effort. It’s all done on the cheap, with terrible tradecraft. The Balkans aren’t much more important to Moscow than they are to Washington. It’s Brussels that should be focusing on the region.
Q: Is plan of Kosovo’s putative territory swap with Serbia, which was one of ideas Trump administration, dead forever?
A: No, it’s a zombie that wanders the earth waiting for the next fool to revive it.
Q: Let’s try to predict, will Trump or Biden win the US election?
A: The two best forecasters are The Economist and 538. [As of October 25] both give Biden more than an 85% chance of winning the Electoral College (and virtual certainty of winning the popular vote, likely by a margin far wider than Hillary Clinton won in 2016). But we are still 10 days out from the election and Biden’s margin will likely shrink as Trump tries every trick in the book (see my post for some indication of what those might be).
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Stevenson’s army, October 28, 2nd edition
As a kid, I got to read two newspapers every day — the Rocky Mountain News [r.i.p.] in the morning and the Denver Post in the afternoon. In the spirit of those days, when many cities had a t least 2 daily papers — and because there’s so much news today — here’s your PM edition.- Pew says only 4% of Trump and BIden supporters plan to split their ticket by voting for a Senate candidate of the other party, This could lead to the 2016 results when Every winning Senator was from the same party as that state voted for President. But be aware, only 6 states still allow straight ticket voting by a single mark.
-WaPo says people criticized by Trump often need special protection.
– Where did the China tariff receipts go? In farmer aid.
-Leaks get action: the inside story of the TR leaks.
And now some good think pieces: Profs Barno & Bensahel on the future of the US Army.
Suggestions for reforming US security assistance.
And great ideas for making better US strategy.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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