Categories: Daniel Serwer

Civilians at risk, sovereignty is the objective

Crisis Group’s reporting on the military and diplomatic situation in Nagorno-Karabakh seems to me on the mark. Azerbaijan has the advantage and is pressing it with Turkish assistance and Israeli weapons, despite the mountainous topography, impending winter, and Russia’s alliance with Armenia.

The only real questions are how far Baku and Yerevan are willing and able to go. Will Baku stop short of completely retaking its sovereign territory, or try to go all the way to Stepanakert and even the Armenian border? Will Yerevan throw its main forces into the fight, with or without Russian support?

The implications for civilians could be dramatic. Something like 145,000 people live in Nagorno-Karabakh, almost entirely Armenians at this point. They are unlikely to stick around if Baku presses forward. They might even be called out by Armenia, which regards them as its citizens, if Yerevan decides to put its forces into the fight, in order to clear the battlespace. Self-cleansing of this sort is common. It could well lead to a dramatic demographic shift if Baku were to prevail.

Azerbaijan, a secular autocracy whose population is overwhelmingly Muslim, has long nurtured the ambition of retaking all of its sovereign territory. Baku isn’t likely to be too careful about its wartime obligations to Armenian civilians. It views the Nagorno-Karabakhis and the secessionist republic they have supported for three decades as the enemy, not least because they ethnically cleansed Azerbaijanis in past conflicts. The difference this time is that Baku is far stronger than it was even at the time of the last major clash in 2016.

Whether Azerbaijan is strong enough this time around to re-establish its internationally recognized sovereignty is not yet clear. Few details are coming from the conflict zone. But Baku’s current lack of interest in a ceasefire and Yerevan’s desire for one tell us what we need to know about how the clashes are going. Let’s hope however that Armenian civilians do not end up paying a high price for the failure of negotiations and compromise all these years.

Here is what Azerbaijani President Aliyev has to say. And here is Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan’s version.

Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer

Recent Posts

Failure and disgrace in 100 days

The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it…

2 days ago

Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war

This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine in Europe. If I can contribute…

3 days ago

Popular protests in Serbia target Vucic

The question is whether the demonstrators can exploit the moment to unseat a wily and…

1 week ago

What US aid will look like after USAID

US aid will be a cash cow for Trump donors, a mainstay of autocratic regimes…

2 weeks ago

A Passover for the Palestinians

Might makes right can work for a while. But in the end they will need…

2 weeks ago

The damage is vast and continuing

The simple fact is we were better off on January 19 than we are today.…

2 weeks ago