Bullying won’t win in a landslide

Reuters reports: WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF SAYS “THE PRESIDENT IS DOING VERY WELL. HE IS UP AND ABOUT AND ASKING FOR DOCUMENTS TO REVIEW. THE DOCTORS ARE VERY PLEASED WITH HIS VITAL SIGNS”

I don’t believe a word of this, not least because the same White House Chief of Staff had previously said that the next 48 hours would be critical. But also because this White House doesn’t often tell the truth. The President himself is incapable of it. And he certainly isn’t asking for documents to review.

The fact is Trump and his campaign are in trouble. Overweight and 74 years old, the President can barely walk down ramp. Even before his illness, his campaign was already lagging in both the 538 and Economist projections. These two best in class forecasts agreed that he had less than a one in five chance of winning the Electoral College and virtually no chance at all of winning the popular vote. Now Trump is out of commission, likely for at least a week more. Unless Joe Biden also gets sick, that would put Trump at a disadvantage until three weeks or so before Election Day, by which time a significant percentage of Americans will already have cast their ballots by mail and in “early” voting.

Trump’s illness will not cut into his “base.” Something like 40% of the country has proved loyal to him through 3.5 years of domestic and international failure, including his inept response to Covid19, his tax cuts for the wealthy, the collapse of the economy, his defense of white supremacists, his threats of violence against peaceful citizens, his defense of abuse by police, his nonpayment of income taxes, his disdain for American troops, and his destruction of America’s international standing.

But Trump has done nothing to expand beyond his base, which explains why he is running against the election rather than against Biden. The pre-and Election Day part of this strategy consists of two parts:

1. Cast doubt on whether the election will be free and fair (to him);
2. Suppress the Democratic vote, especially in “battleground” states like Pennsylvania, using court cases, social media (including Russian bots), robocalls, threats of intimidation, poll watchers, interference by state legislatures in the balloting, and election disinformation.

The post-Election Day part of this strategy will be fought out mainly in court, by challenging the validity of votes and tabulations while white supremacists with guns “stand by” to protect the streets. Republican-controlled state legislatures will look for opportunities to intervene wherever the voting is close to seize the initiative and cast the state’s electoral votes for Trump, which is theoretically possible under the Constitution if the outcome appears ambiguous.

Trump’s illness won’t have much effect on this effort to determine the election result. The apparatus to accomplish this strategy is already deployed and active. The President’s role is to provide leadership and cover for it. The Democrats will of course mount a defense in depth, but by far the best way of avoiding a messy aftermath of Election Day is a definitive and uncontestable victory on November 3. The odds of that are rising. Trump’s debate performance last week, which he regards as a plus, has taken big toll on his numbers.

That will only cause Trump’s supporters to double down on the strategy outlined above. They are going to try to bully their way to an Electoral College victory. But it can only work if he avoids a landslide that is looking increasingly likely.