Day: October 20, 2020
Still polarization, this time in support of Bosnia
I missed until now Biden and Harris statement on Bosnia and Herzegovina:
This may at first reading by the uninitiated sound a bit less polarized than the statement on Kosovo and Albania, but that it is not how it will be read in the Balkans. Some Serbs and Croats will resent his mention of genocide, his advocacy on behalf of the Sarajevo government during the war, his support for the NATO intervention that ended it, his support for sanctioning Bosnian Serb leader Dodik, and even his call for reform and reconciliation.
Bosnian Americans, in particular Bosniaks, are at their most concentrated in St. Louis, where they aren’t likely to help Biden much. Missouri is a lock for Trump. Others live mostly in Democratic cities and states, but there are some in Florida, which is a battleground state where even a few votes this way or that can matter a lot, as Bush and Gore discovered in 2000.
The last line in the the Biden/Harris statement is the most important. It is a firm rejection of Dodik’s secession ambition, the likes of which we haven’t heard from the Trump Administration. Biden is not going to be tempted by moving borders in the Balkans and will revert the US to its traditional position in favor of EU membership for all its states. Sounds right to me.
PS: A correspondent claims I undervalued the Bosnian American populations in Georgia and Iowa. That could make a difference in both states.
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Polarization at home, polarization abroad
The Biden Harris campaign has released this on relations with Albania and Kosovo:
The statement speaks for itself, loud and clear. Many friends in Belgrade won’t like it, because they have enjoyed the Trump Administration’s tilt in their direction. Many Albanians in both Kosovo and Albania will be delighted, even though it adds little or nothing to what Biden has already been said on the most salient issue: the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade.
Belgrade had already opted for open support of Donald Trump’s re-election. The leading opposition figure in Pristina, Albin Kurti, had already opted for open support of Joe Biden, though the government there is likely to remain circumspect. Albanians know they have gotten the short end of the stick in this Administration, but they don’t want to offend Donald Trump, for fear of the transactional consequences. That won’t prevent most of them from celebrating if Biden is elected.
The consequences inside the US electorate are marginal at best. The biggest Albanian community I know of is in New York City. It won’t make much difference there, since both the City and the State will vote overwhelmingly for Biden. Serbs may have a bigger impact, as there is a significant number in Ohio, which is a swing (or battleground) state. It has been tilting towards Trump (65% chance of his winning it, according to The Economist). But the bigger Serb populations in big cities like Chicago and Milwaukee are unlikely to have much impact in Illinois and Wisconsin respectively. Illinois is a lock for Biden and Wisconsin is leaning heavily his way.
It is unfortunate that Albanian Americans and Serb Americans are aligning themselves so clearly with Democrats and Republicans, but understandable in current circumstances. Our polarization at home naturally engenders polarization abroad. Long gone from Capitol Hill is Ohio Republican Senator Vojnovic, who managed more or less to straddle the Serb/Albanian divide, and soon to be gone (defeated in his primary) is New York Congressman Engel, who tried but is far more popular among Albanians than among Serbs.
President Trump is still occasionally expressing his disappointment at not getting a Nobel Peace Prize for the mostly useless agreement between Pristina and Belgrade that his minions negotiated in hopes of buttressing his campaign. I suppose he may reprise that silliness in Thursday night’s debate with Biden, when the President wants to focus on foreign policy in order to distract attention from the disastrous resurgence of Covid 19. If he does, Biden will know how to respond. He has forgotten far more about the Balkans than Trump has ever known.
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Stevenson’s army, October 20
– Gideon Rachman warns China may move against Taiwan during post election confusion or interregnum. What would Trump do? What would Biden do?
– FP has analysis of Taiwan’s military situation.
– Vox says Democrats are divided on how to rebuild State Department.
– WaPo details how Scott Atlas took over pandemic policy, overcoming a “den of dissent.”
-Khalilzad says Afghan peace is in trouble.
– I said you didn’t have to understand budget reconciliation process, but Hill staffers see it as the way for a Democratic administration to make big changes.
– Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are using obstruction tools against Barrett nomination.
– WSJ says farmers are still for Trump, despite problems.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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