The tense homestretch and tumultuous aftermath
We are entering the final 10 days of the 2020 election campaign. Former Vice President Biden is in the lead. Both The Economist and 538 forecasts give him a better than 85% chance of winning the Electoral College and virtual certainty in the popular vote. The Economist has only Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia in the tossup category. Biden has as much of a chance of winning Arizona as Trump does Iowa. Trump is also favored in Georgia, but by a sliver. Biden can lose all three tossup states and is still likely to win the Electoral College. His greatest vulnerability beyond them is Florida, but even without it he can win because Pennsylvania is leaning his way.
This means President Trump, who gained no ground after Thursday evening’s debate, will be on his worst behavior. We should expect surprises. Maybe the President will be successful in his effort to hound Attorney General Barr, the ultimate loyalist, into indicting Biden or his son Hunter. Maybe there will be a new attempt to dump supposedly incriminating emails into the public domain. Maybe Trump will announce a Covid-19 vaccine approval. At the very least, we should expect an inundation of lies: Trump will
- claim credit for the Obama Administration reform of the Veterans’ Administration,
- continue to describe the epidemic as ending despite record numbers of infections,
- falsely claim companies are bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US,
- brag about his pre-pandemic economy, which was growing at more or less the same pace as Obama’s.
He will also ignore his biggest “accomplishments”: a record-setting deficit, the tensest race relations in a generation, and hurting the prospects for a new bipartisan relief bill in response to the epidemic.
We should also expect continued efforts to interfere with voting, counting, tabulation, and communication of the state-by-state results to Washington on December 14. This counter-electoral campaign will take many forms: court cases trying to limit counting of mailed-in ballots, intimidation of voters and poll workers by armed groups at the polls, monkeying by state legislatures in the tabulation of results, and armed interference with the convening of the Electoral College in each state capital.
Unlike his often hollow narcissism, Trump sounds as if he really believes he is in the lead. If he loses, he may be the only person in Washington who will be surprised. He has made it absolutely plain that he will regard a loss as possible only due to massive electoral fraud, none of which has been demonstrated. He has pointedly refused to promise that there will be peaceful transition. His all too often armed base will be astonished and infuriated.
This will make the period between November 3 and the inauguration of Biden January 20 fraught. Trump will do everything he can to make it difficult for Biden to reverse the Administration’s retrogression on environmental issues, worker safety, health care, immigration, refugees, public education, LGBTQ rights, and abortion. Trump will also pardon all his sidekicks as well as himself for Federal offenses (he has no power to pardon for state crimes). The armed terrorist groups that support Trump may try to interfere with the inauguration.
In the meanwhile, Biden will be trying to steady the ship of state and prepare for at least a partial restoration of its previous course, especially on domestic social issues. But much of the world, and even the country, has moved on from the Obama years. With its citizens determined to retrench, America will need to find its place in a world where China and Russia are more belligerent, Europe less compliant, and much of the rest of the world less interested hedging against an unreliable US. Biden will need to adjust to reality even while restoring ideals. It won’t be easy. More on that anon.
PS: Here’s a useful message from Mary McCord of Georgetown Law:
PPS: Here is one way the results of the election may have to be protected.
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