Chastened but strengthened, a good paradigm

Slobodan Kostic of Belgrade newsweekly Vreme asked questions on the occasion of its 30th anniversary. I replied:

Q: Sharp political divisions, racial antagonisms, unemployment is rising, pandemic is getting worse and worse… What is really going on with US?

A: All the things you point to are really going on. But it is important to remember that the US is a democracy with consolidated institutions that have been through many difficult periods: just in my lifetime, World War II (I was born toward the very end), the assassinations of 1963 and 1968, the civil rights movement and the protests against the Viet Nam war, the inflation and economic challenges of the 1970s, 9/11…. I think we will emerge from our current challenges chastened but strengthened.

Q: How is it possible most powerful country in the world has come to this situation?

A: Powerful countries can make bigger mistakes than less powerful countries. The invasion of Iraq and the election of Donald Trump are in my view two spectacular ones.

Q: Who is responsible for that?

A: All Americans are responsible and have paid a high price.

Q: If you take a look from distance, why did people vote for Donald Trump?

A: In my view: white racial resentment is the single strongest factor, especially among older men. But of course there are many others: stagnating incomes for the middle class, job losses, failure to meet international competition, resentment of recent immigrants, etc.

Q: Some Serbian officials and the Serbian community in U.S. directly support Donald Trump’s re-election. Is it really in Serbia’s interest to support him?

A: Trump has tilted in favor of Serbia in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue. But that hasn’t brought any substantial benefits to Belgrade. I’m sure his people have also pressured hard for supportive statements in return. But wise governments don’t take sides in American elections, whose outcome is always uncertain.

Q: Is politics rallying Serbian Americans to support Trump in 2020 interfere in US domestic?

A: Certainly some Serbs would object if the Americans openly rallied support for one or another candidate in Serbia, as we did for Kostunica in 2000. But frankly no one but Serb Americans noticed Belgrade’s enthusiasm for Trump. Serb Americans could be a factor in Ohio, though not an overwhelming one.

Q: What can be consequences of that decision?

A: The consequence so far has been a Biden statement that many Serbs see as a promise of tilting against Serbia. It wasn’t smart to provoke that.

Q: Is that support one aspect of political illusion that Kosovo is still part of Serbia?

A: I don’t think there really is a political illusion that Kosovo is still part of Serbia. All of Serbia’s politicians understand that they will never again govern Kosovo and that they will have to recognize its sovereignty and independence as a pre-condition for accession to the European Union. They use the Kosovo issue to curry domestic political support and to distract attention from poor economic performance.

Q: But a lot of people in Serbia still claim to love the `heartland’ of Kosovo more than life itself, repeating a mantra on “the Serb holy land and spiritual cradle”?

A: If they do, they should pay a visit there. Very few do.

Q: After years of negotiations, Kosovar Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic signed an “economic normalization” deal at a ceremony hosted by President Donald Trump. Can that deal, during the time, become a historic breakthrough?

A: I think it is thin gruel. There is a lot of meat to be added if economic normalization is really to take place.

Q: Trump’s normalization agreement provides for increased economic collaboration between Kosovo and Serbia, that can be important for both sides?

A: Sure: start with eliminating non-tariff barriers and accepting Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state in all regional and international organizations, even if there is no bilateral recognition.

Q: You think the Agreement is just tool in Donald Trump’s re-election campaign which will be forgotten very quickly in the United States?

A: Correct. It isn’t really worth much more than the paper it is printed on unless there are massive efforts to follow up. So far, little to nothing, except in the statement of the Chambers of Commerce. That was of some value.

Q: What do you think, will Serbian leader Aleksandar Vucic recognize Kosovo?

A: He says not. I believe him. I think it likely Serbia will have a new president before it recognizes Kosovo.

Q: On the other hand, Serbia has been working on adapting to the EU acquis; is President of Serbia Vucic the one who is going to qualify Serbia for membership in the EU?

A: He can make a lot of progress on the technical aspects of the acquis. But he is falling far short on the requirements for independent media and judiciary, not to mention the status of Kosovo.

Q: It’s clear is Serbia is deteriorated democracy, regime controls most Serbian media, ruling Serbian Progressive Party eroded political rights and civil liberties, putting pressure on political opposition; can you say Aleksandar Vucic is some aspects worse than Slobodan Milosevic?

A: No, I’m not prepared to go there. Milosevic was guilty in my view of mass murder and even genocide, though he died before his conviction. Vucic acted as Milosevic’s information minister and is therefore guilty by association, but I don’t think his current behavior comes anywhere near Milosevic’s homicidal impulses.

Q: Do you think Aleksandar Vucic plays Milosevic role in Serbia?

A: Within Serbia, he has accumulated the kind of autocratic power Milosevic had. And he clearly has ambitions to control Serbs in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as Kosovo. But he is not doing to non-Serbs in those places what Milosevic did.

Q: Despite that, looks like Vucic has become Europe’s favorite Balkan’s leader. Has EU done enough to deal with his autocracy?

A: No. The EU needs to listen more to German Ambassador to the UN Heusgens.

Q: Why is EU so silent over backslide of democracy in Serbia? Are they afraid of Russian influence in Serbia?

A: I suppose that is a factor, but by not insisting on democracy and ensuring there are consequences for backsliding the EU is allowing Serbia to fall increasingly into the Russian gravitational space.

Q: Has Russia really seen the Balkans as a battleground where it can try to obstruct NATO and EU expansion?

A: Yes, that is its objective, including by disrupting democratic governance in Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. But Moscow is not expending a lot of resources in this effort. It’s all done on the cheap, with terrible tradecraft. The Balkans aren’t much more important to Moscow than they are to Washington. It’s Brussels that should be focusing on the region.

Q: Is plan of Kosovo’s putative territory swap with Serbia, which was one of ideas Trump administration, dead forever?

A: No, it’s a zombie that wanders the earth waiting for the next fool to revive it.

Q: Let’s try to predict, will Trump or Biden win the US election?

A: The two best forecasters are The Economist and 538. [As of October 25] both give Biden more than an 85% chance of winning the Electoral College (and virtual certainty of winning the popular vote, likely by a margin far wider than Hillary Clinton won in 2016). But we are still 10 days out from the election and Biden’s margin will likely shrink as Trump tries every trick in the book (see my post for some indication of what those might be).