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Peace Picks | October 12 – October 16, 2020

1. What Do Africans Think About the Continent’s Future? | October  13, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:10 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here

New data from Afrobarometer’s latest round of public attitude surveys provide important guideposts for U.S. policymakers and Africa analysts. Findings from 18 countries offer insights on Africans’ aspirations for sovereignty, self-sufficiency, and democratic and accountable governance—as well their inclination toward open borders and free trade rather than protectionism. They also reveal a continued preference for the United States over China as a development model, their rejection of “debt diplomacy,” and their belief that English, rather than Chinese, remains the international language of the continent’s future.

These findings come amid wide recognition that progress on democratic governance in Africa has stalled, with many African governments falling back to authoritarian practices. The effectiveness of U.S. policy has been questioned as a result, and analysts have argued that U.S. policy toward Africa needs to be updated and revitalized. This is especially true in the context of a global pandemic that has undermined African economies and livelihoods, raised threats to governance and the rule of law, and revealed the potential global implications of access to health services. 

Join USIP and Afrobarometer for a first look at Afrobarometer’s latest survey research and results, as well as a discussion on how the data can help guide U.S. government policy in Africa and provide key insights for policymakers on trends and potential threats to peace and security in Africa.

Speakers:

Ambassador Johnnie Carson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace

Dr. E. Gyimah-Boadi: Interim CEO, Afrobarometer

Dr. Carolyn Logan: Director of Analysis, Afrobarometer; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University

Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny: Regional Communications Coordinator/Anglophone West Africa, Afrobarometer and Ghana Center for Democratic Development

Susan Stigant, moderator: Director, Africa Program, U.S. Institute of Peace

2. COVID-19 and the Futures of Conflict in the Middle East | October  14, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Ongoing analysis in the Middle East Institute’s (MEI) Strategic Foresight Initiative is examining scenarios of what conflict in the region could look like in 2025 based on different combinations of factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic. MEI is pleased to bring together experts to pose two important questions: What signals do we see of the pandemic’s impacts affecting foreign policy and conflict behaviors of key actors in the region? How are long standing social dynamics in the region being affected by the pandemic and in turn influencing conflict dynamics?

Speakers:

Alexandra Clare: Co-founder and CEO, Re:Coded

Nancy Ezzeddine: Research Fellow, Clingendael Institute

Ross Harrison: Senior Fellow and Director of Research, MEI

Steven Kenney, moderator: Non-resident scholar, MEI; founder and principal, Foresight Vector LLC

3. The Impact of COVID-19 on Local Peacebuilding in the Middle East | October  14, 2020 | 9:30 – 11:00 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here

The outbreak of COVID-19 in conflict zones was regarded by many as an opportunity for peace. But today, the stark reality in many conflict zones has shown that the opportunity may have been missed. Cease-fires are being ignored, and the politics of the pandemic have enabled conflict and violence rather than deterred them. The past few months have shown that while the COVID-19 health crisis will eventually subside, its economic, social, and political implications will unfortunately outlive it. In the face of these challenges, how are local peacebuilding efforts in the Middle East coping with the far-reaching effects of the pandemic in both the short- and long-term?

Join USIP and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) for a panel discussion featuring peacebuilding experts and practitioners from the Middle East. The online conversation will look at the implications of COVID-19 on peacebuilding at the local level in three particular Middle Eastern contexts—Yemen, Syria, and Iraq—as well as how regional and international actors should engage in the Middle East to support local peace actors as they try to preserve the gains they’ve made over the past few years.

Speakers:

Dr. Elie Abouaoun, opening remarks: Director of Middle East and North Africa Programs, U.S. Institute of Peace

Dr. Sultan Barakat: Founding Director, Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies

Dr. Kathryn Nwajiaku-Dahou, opening remarks: Director of Politics and Governance, ODI

Mrs. Nadwa Al-Dawsari: Non-resident Fellow, The Middle East Institute

Mrs. Noor Qais: Program Officer, Sanad for Peacebuilding, Iraq

Dr. Sherine Taraboulsi-McCarthy, moderator: Interim Senior Research Fellow, The Politics and Governance Program (ODI)

4. Conversation on a ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control | October  14, 2020 | 11:30 AM—12:30 PM EDT | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here

The last remaining U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control agreement, New START, is rapidly approaching its end. President Trump seeks a new agreement that includes China and covers all nuclear warheads. But is this approach feasible? If not, what provisions should be included in a successor to New START? 

Please join us for a conversation with James Acton and Pranay Vaddi from Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program, as they share insights from their new report: “A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation.” They will be joined by Alexei Arbatov, and Rose Gottemoeller as moderator.

Speakers:

James M. Acton: Jessica T. Mathews Chair and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program;  senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Pranay Vaddi: Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Alexey Arbatov: Head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations.

Rose Gottemoeller: Distinguished Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Previously served as deputy secretary general of NATO.

5. Obstacles to a Free and Fair Presidential Election in Syria | October  14, 2020 | 16:00—17:30 EEST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here

Syrian presidential elections are scheduled for 2021. President Bashar al-Assad and his close confidants have said that they will go ahead with the elections without a new constitution and irrespective of whether they meet the standards of the political process outlined in Security Council Resolution 2254.

Holding a fair presidential election would require many legislative changes, and new mechanisms to allow internally displaced persons and refugees to vote en masse. Adding to the complications at a practical level are the opaque and questionable voter rolls and a lack of appropriate voting procedures. Additionally, the political and security environment inside Syria would need to change significantly. Voters would need to feel that the election process is safe, fair, and legitimate. These conditions do not presently exist and achieving them requires far more than minor amendments to the electoral law and voting mechanisms. There is also a need to consider the role of elections as part of a successful peace or transition process. Legitimizing elections prematurely would likely do more harm than good.    

What precisely would a fair election in Syria look like? What are the voting options available for those residing outside Syria? What are the practical tasks and timelines required for achieving a free and fair election in Syria—decoupled from arbitrary timelines? Join us on Wednesday, October 14 from 4:00–5:30 p.m. Beirut (3:00-4:30 p.m. CEST) to discuss the upcoming presidential election in Syria. The discussion will be held on Zoom in English with simultaneous interpretation to Arabic. To join, please register for the event here.

Speakers:

Assaad Al-Achi: executive director of Baytna Syria.

Sead Alihodzic: senior programme manager with the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.

Dima Moussa: member of the Syrian Opposition Coalition.

Vladimir Pran: senior technical adviser for the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

Emma Beals: senior advisor at the European Institute of Peace and is an independent consultant focused on Syria.

6. Why Denouncing White Supremacy Creates Safety, Security, and Racial Equity | October  14, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:00 PM EDT | Brookings Institute | Register Here

During the first presidential debate, President Donald Trump avoided an explicit denouncement of white supremacists and instead asked them to “stand down and stand by.” These remarks were reminiscent of his statement after the deadly 2017 white supremacist rally in Charlottesville when he said that there were “very fine people on both sides.” Racist rhetoric from government officials, including calls to incite voter intimidation and promote civil unrest, are sadly not unprecedented in American history. In fact, the increasing use of social media among white supremacists for hate speech, along with the racial and ethnic tribalization surfacing over the last few years, have stifled the country’s attempts to combat racism and systemic inequalities.

While white supremacist groups are finding a geopolitical landscape that has grown more supportive of their rhetoric and activities, Black Americans are also exercising resistance and resilience in light of recent alarming statements. Like the historic civil rights movement, Black Lives Matter has drawn Americans to grapple with contemporary nationalism. America is now in fragile times that deserve the attention of federal, state, and local policies to confront white supremacy and other historical vestiges standing in the way of racial healing and reconciliation.

On October 14, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a conversation on the roots of white supremacy, the impact of racist rhetoric during critical moments in history, and how Black Americans, as well as other people of color, have responded and continue to respond. Panelists will also offer policy recommendations for how the country can promote racial empathy and redress the symptoms of power, race, and privilege, which will be critical issues facing the next administration.

Speakers:

Nicol Turner Lee, moderator: Senior Fellow – Governance StudiesDirector – Center for Technology Innovation

John Allen: President – The Brookings Institution

Keisha N. Blain: Associate Professor of History – University of Pittsburgh2020-2021 Fellow, Carr Center for Human Rights Policy – Harvard University

Fredrick C. Harris: Nonresident Senior Fellow – Governance Studies

Darrell M. West: Vice President and Director – Governance StudiesSenior Fellow – Center for Technology Innovation

7. Examining the EU-Iran-US Triangle | October  15, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Since the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement in May 2018, France, Germany and the UK (the E3 countries) have been under pressure from both Washington and Tehran. The Trump administration has tried unsuccessfully to gain E3 support for its sanctions-based maximum pressure policy, including the extension of the arms embargo on Iran resulting in tensions at the UN Security Council. Tehran has been pressuring the bloc for economic aid and sanctions relief while lobbying the E3 to save the JCPOA and defend Iranian interests. Within Iran, leaders including Supreme Leader Khamenei have been particularly critical of the E3 and called for Iran to build stronger ties with more dependable states like China. 

Frustrated by Tehran’s destabilising regional activities and escalation of its uranium enrichment program and Washington’s unilateral approach, the E3 has maintained unity on its JCPOA strategy. It has not however been able to provide meaningful political and economic solutions, resolve differences between Tehran and Washington, or address the many outstanding bilateral issues on the table. 

In this webinar, organized by the Middle East Institute and Chatham House’s MENA Programme, speakers will discuss and unpack the triangular challenges and opportunities for Washington, Tehran, and the E3 and consider how the US presidential election might impact dynamics going forward.

Speakers:

Clément Therme: Post-doctoral research fellow, Nuclear Knowledges Program, Sciences Po; research associate, School for Advanced Studies in Social Sciences

Sanam Vakil: Deputy director and senior research fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House

Azadeh Zamirirad: Deputy head, Middle East and Africa Division, German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program, Middle East institute

8. Lessons for Afghanistan from Colombia’s Peace Process | October  15, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here

Formal talks are underway between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Taliban to end over four decades of violent conflict and instability. At this vital phase of the Afghan peace process, it’s important to draw lessons from recent negotiated settlements. The comprehensive settlement between the Colombian government and the FARC has become one of the most widely recognized examples of how a comprehensive peace process can address the root causes of violence and result in a political settlement. While the Colombian and Afghan conflicts are distinct in many ways, Colombia is an important reference point that could provide some valuable insights and an imperfect roadmap for Afghanistan.

There isn’t a single standard model for negotiations—but analyzing historical processes, understanding their application, and identifying opportunities to adapt to specific contexts can serve countries who seek to resolve and transform seemingly intractable conflicts.

Join USIP and the Embassy of Afghanistan for a discussion on important lessons from the Havana Process with the FARC, highlighting both the successes and shortcomings of the negotiation and its implementation. This is the first discussion in an ongoing series launched by the Embassy of Afghanistan that examines peace processes around the world. Panelists will explore the importance of political consensus building, how to address continued violence, the role of neighboring countries and third-party facilitators, among other pressing issues.

Speakers:

Scott Worden, welcoming remarks: Director of Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace 

Her Excellency Roya Rahmani: Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan to the United States 

Bernard W. Aronson: Founder and Managing Partner, ACON Investments. Former U.S. Special Envoy to the Colombian Peace Process

Humberto de la Calle: Former Colombian Government Chief Negotiator, Former Vice President of Colombia

Sergio Jaramillo: Senior Advisor, European Institute of Peace. Former Colombian High Commissioner for Peace 

Dag Nylander: Director, Section for Peace and Reconciliation, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Former Norwegian Special Envoy to the Colombia

Alejo Vargas Velásquez: Director of the Center on the Peace Process, Vice Dean on Research, Faculty of Law, Political and Social Sciences, National University 

Belquis Ahmadi, moderator: Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace

Paula Garcia-Tufro, moderator: Project Director, U.S. Institute of Peace

9. Russia and China: Common interests and rivalry in South Caucasus and Central Asia | October  16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Russia’s recent Kavkaz 2020 military exercises have demonstrated the scale and scalability of Russian military capabilities in the broader Caspian region. A number of other states, including China and Iran, also took part in Kavkaz 2020, which was an impressive show of military force. The recent renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan have underlined the fluid power politics of the region where Moscow’s once dominant position is under question.

Is such multilateral military cooperation a signal of a genuine deepening of Russian-Chinese understanding and cooperation in this part of the world that Moscow has for so long considered to be its “near abroad”? What is the nature of the Russian-Chinese relationship overall in and around the Caspian region; what are the areas of complementarity and how much of the joint Russian-Chinese efforts are aimed at countering American and other Western interests?

Speakers:

Mark Galeotti: Non-resident scholar, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI

Bruce Pannier: Senior Central Asia correspondent, RFE/RL; editor, Qishloq Ovozi blog 

Niva Yau: Resident researcher, OSCE Academy in Bishkek; fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute

Alex Vatanka, moderator: Director, Iran Program; senior fellow, Frontier Europe Initiative, MEI

10. Russia’s War in Donbas: Ripe for a Resolution? | October  16, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM EDT | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here

More than six years after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, there is little evident movement toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The implementation of a package of measures dubbed the “Minsk II” process—which calls for a cease-fire, troop withdrawal, the return of border control to Kyiv, and local elections—is bogged down. Both Ukraine and the international community are looking for new solutions that would bring about a long-awaited peace.

Join USIP and prominent experts and policymakers for a discussion on possible solutions for resolving the ongoing conflict. The event will look at the current status of peace negotiations, as well as what a settlement might look like, the war’s political and social consequences and how COVID-19 has exacerbated its effects, and how regional dynamics—including instability in neighboring Belarus—have the potential to influence Ukraine’s security situation.

Speakers:

Ambassador William B. Taylor: Vice President, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace

George Kent: Deputy Assistant Secretary, European and Eurasian Bureau, U.S. State Department (to be confirmed) 

Orysia Lutsevych: Research Fellow and Manager, Ukraine Forum, Chatham House  

Oleksii Reznikov: Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine

Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko : Ambassador, Embassy of Ukraine to the United States

Donald Jensen, moderator: Director, Office of Strategic Stability and Security, U.S. Institute of Peace