Month: November 2020
Stevenson’s army, November 30
NYT says Fakhrizadeh killing was done by a dozen people with multiple vehicles in a carefully planned attack.WaPo sorts out Israeli motives.
Lobbyists are working hard to weaken Uighur sanctions.
Neera Tanden, Biden pick for OMB, looks like the prime GOP target since the job requires Senate confirmation.
Axios says Biden is considering retired Army General Lloyd Austin for SecDef. Bad move. The law would have to be waived since he been out of uniform only 3 years. Mattis set troubling example of ignoring civilians.
Politico lists House members vulnerable to redistricting.
SCOTUS hears census citizenship case today.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | November 30 – December 4, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. France and Islam: Identity, Politics, and Geopolitics | November 30, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
France’s contentious policy on the public practice of Islam has struck multiple identity and political fault lines, not only in France or Europe, but also across the Muslim world. What was essentially a domestic French political debate has morphed into a global debate on relations between state and religion, liberalism and secularism, and the West and Islam/Muslim-majority countries. The intensifying controversy in France comes amid growing populist calls for limiting migration, especially from Muslim countries, and ongoing government initiatives that would deepen the securitization of Islam in the country. President Macron’s rhetoric has dovetailed with France’s foreign policy toward the Middle East’s ideological and geopolitical cleavages, ensuring the amplification of reactions abroad. While the public reaction in the Middle East has been largely uniform, official reactions have exposed existing divisions and conflicts on regional affairs.
The Brookings Doha Center invites you to attend a webinar on France’s evolving policy on the public and political manifestations of Islam. Among other topics, the webinar will address the following questions: What are the domestic and foreign policy drivers of France’s new policy on Islam and Islamism? How is this policy shaping identity debates on Islam and Muslims in the West? What does this policy tell us about populism, nativism, and multiculturalism in France in particular and the West in general? And what will be the geopolitical implications of this new policy in the Middle East and the Muslim world?
Speakers:
Galip Dalay, moderator: Nonresident Fellow – Brookings Doha CenterRichard von Weizsäcker Fellow, Robert Bosch Academy
François Burgat: Senior Research Fellow – French National Centre for Scientific Research
Jocelyne Cesari: Visiting Professor of Religion, Violence, and Peacebuilding – Harvard Divinity School
Rim-Sarah Alouane: Ph.D candidate in Comparative Law – Université Toulouse
2. Taking Stock: Five Years of Russia’s Intervention in Syria | November 30, 2020 | 10:30 – 11:30 PM EST | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
Russia’s military intervention in Syria in October 2015 changed the course of the civil war, saving the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Five years on, al-Assad is still in power and the country remains unstable. Turkey’s incursion into northeastern Syria and the United States’ withdrawal of troops in late 2019 have redesigned the geography of the conflict, while the EU has been largely absent from the diplomatic efforts to halt the war.
Speakers:
Marc Pierini: visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, where his research focuses on developments in the Middle East and Turkey from a European perspective.
Jomana Qaddour: nonresident senior fellow at the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Program of the Atlantic Council, where she leads the Syria portfolio.
Dmitri Trenin: director of the Carnegie Moscow Center. Also chairs the research council and the Foreign and Security Policy Program.
Frances Z. Brown: senior fellow with Carnegie’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
3. Contested Waters: Flashpoints for Conflict in Asia | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
No modern states have ever declared war over water. In fact, nations dependent on shared water sources have collaborated far more frequently than they have clashed. Nevertheless, global surveys have counted over 40 hostile or militarized international actions over water—from riots to border skirmishes to larger battles—in the first six decades after World War II.
Join USIP for a virtual discussion on the future of water conflict and water diplomacy. Environmental peacebuilding experts and activists from Burma, India, and Pakistan will discuss the strategies they use to mitigate water conflict risks in their countries, as well as examine insights from a new USIP report, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies,” that may help develop early warning indicators for emerging water-based conflicts.
Speakers:
Tegan Blaine: Senior Advisor on Environment and Conflict, U.S. Institute of Peace
David Michel: Senior Researcher, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; Author, “Water Conflict Pathways and Peacebuilding Strategies”
Abdul Aijaz: Doctoral Candidate, Indiana University Bloomington
Amit Ranjan: Research Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
Z Nang Raw: Director of Policy and Strategy, Nyein Foundation
Jumaina Siddiqui, moderator: Senior Program Officer for South Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
4. U.S.-China Relations Under Biden: A Look Ahead | December 1, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
While the recent election of Joe Biden likely signals a raft of domestic political changes, its impact on U.S.-China relations remains unclear. The Trump administration has remolded the relationship, which is now defined by confrontations over economic practices, emerging technologies, and security. There is also growing bipartisan support for pursuing a tougher approach to China, and the Justice, State, and Defense departments are increasingly prioritizing new initiatives to push back on Beijing. Will Biden maintain the confrontational tone and policies of his predecessor? Or will he devise an entirely different posture toward Beijing? The answers to these questions will not only have critical consequences for the two countries in question, but for the broader international community as well.
One month after the U.S. election, Paul Haenle will moderate a discussion with American and Chinese experts on how the Biden administration will approach China, as well as how Beijing is gearing up for the new U.S. president.
Speakers:
Paul Haenle: Maurice R. Greenberg Director’s Chair at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center based at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China
Evan A. Feigenbaum: Vice President for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Xie Tao: Professor of Political Science and Dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University
5. Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging New World | December 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | United States Institute for Peace | Register Here
With rapid technological change, shifting global demographics, and tectonic geopolitical shifts, the world faces an inflection point—where the choices that leaders make in the coming years will have profound implications for generations. In response to this moment, former Secretary of State George P. Shultz has organized a project at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution called Hinge of History: Governance in an Emerging World to explore what these shifts mean for global democracy, economies, and security.
Join USIP and Stanford’s Hoover Institution for a timely conversation on the project’s findings and its implications for U.S. and international policy. The panel discussion will evaluate the major demographic, technological, and economic trends that are creating tectonic shifts in our geopolitical landscape and forcing a strategic rethink of governance strategies in the 21st century. In light of the challenges identified, panelists will also consider how the United States and others can harness these changes to usher in greater security and prosperity.
Agenda
2:00pm – 2:20pm | A Conversation with Secretary George P. Shultz
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Secretary George P. Shultz: Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Distinguished Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
2:20pm – 3:20pm | Panel Discussion: Governance Strategies for the Emerging New World
Dr. Chester A. Crocker, moderator: James R. Schlesinger Professor of Strategic Studies, Georgetown University
Dr. Lucy Shapiro: Virginia and D. K. Ludwig Professor of Developmental Biology, Stanford University
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
Dr. James P. Timbie: Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Dr. Silvia Giorguli-Saucedo: President, El Colegio de México
3:20pm – 3:30pm | Closing Remarks
Ambassador George Moose: Vice Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace
6. Venezuela’s Assembly Elections | December 3, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
On Sunday, December 6, 2020, Venezuela will hold elections to choose members of the National Assembly for five-year terms. Since 2015, Venezuela’s political opposition has held a majority in the Assembly, the body from which Juan Guaidó emerged as interim President in January 2019.
This December’s Assembly elections take place against a backdrop of acute restrictions on political freedoms under the regime of Nicolás Maduro. For example, to limit and undermine the National Assembly’s authority, the regime convened elections in 2017 for a parallel Constituent Assembly, elections condemned by over 40 countries in Latin America and around the world. In recent years, leading opposition figures have been summarily prohibited from offering their candidacy, and in 2020, the Venezuelan Supreme Court arbitrarily removed the leadership of opposition parties, substituting others appointed by the government.
Amidst these growing restrictions on democratic space, the opposition has decided not to participate in the December 6 elections, a decision supported by scores of countries who have recognized the interim presidency of Juan Guaidó.
What, then, do these elections mean for the political future of Venezuela? What future strategies are available to the opposition? Will citizens, exhausted by chronic shortages of basic goods and in the midst of a raging pandemic, show up to vote? What will a new Assembly mean for the political future of Juan Guaidó?
Speakers:
Michael Penfold: Abraham F. Lowenthal Public Policy Fellow; Professor of Political Science, Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA) Business and Public Policy School, Venezuela
Margarita Lopez Maya: Professor, Center for Development Studies (CENDES), Universidad Central de Venezuela
Beatriz Borges: Director, Center for Justice and Peace (CEPAZ)
Phil Gunson: Senior Analyst, Andes, International Crisis Group
Cynthia J. Arnson, moderator: Director, Latin American Program
7. What Challenges will the UN Pose for the Joe Biden Administration? | December 3, 2020 | 3:30 – 5:00 pM ET | American Enterprise Institute | Register Here
The incoming administration will confront a United Nations that increasingly serves as a theater for great-power competition, rather than the forum for global peace and understanding that its founders hoped to achieve. In addition, some of the greatest violators of human rights are on the UN’s Human Rights Council, while the World Health Organization stands accused of hampering the international COVID-19 response due to political pressures.
Please join AEI for an in-depth discussion on the key challenges the UN faces in an era of competition among the US, China, and Russia and how the Biden administration can strengthen the UN-US relationship.
Speakers:
Ivana Stradner, opening remarks: Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow, AEI
Sam Daws: Director, Project on UN Governance and Reform, University of Oxford
Hillel Neuer: Executive Director, UN Watch
Stewart M. Patrick: Director, International Institutions and Global Governance Program, Council on Foreign Relations
Danielle Pletka: Senior Fellow, AEI
John Yoo: Visiting Scholar, AEI
Kori Schake, moderator: Director, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
8. Pakistan’s Internal Dynamics and Changing Role in the World | December 4, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
For the last two decades, discussions on Pakistan have centered around the U.S. war in Afghanistan and on Pakistan’s struggle with extremism, while its rich history, complex internal dynamics, and the aspirations of its citizens were largely excluded from the narrative. Nearly 20 years after 9/11, it is time for the United States to reexamine its relationship with, and understanding of, this complicated country.
On December 4, the Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host a panel discussion taking a multifaceted look at this nation of 220 million people. The event will include a discussion on domestic issues, ranging from the human and women’s rights situation to Islamist politics and ethnic and religious insurgencies within the country. In addition, the conversation will focus on the implications of a Biden presidency for Pakistan, as well as the country’s changing role in the Greater Middle East and South Asia.
Speakers:
Madiha Afzal: David M. Rubenstein Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
Bruce Riedel: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and TechnologyDirector – The Intelligence Project
Declan Walsh: Cairo Bureau Chief – New York Times
9. The U.S.-India Partnership: Looking Forward | December 4, 2020 | 8:30 – 9:30 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment for Peace | Register Here
The growth of the U.S.-India strategic partnership has been a significant achievement both in Washington and in New Delhi over the last two decades. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Laura Stone and Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Reed Werner will review recent successes and identify future goals for the relationship. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
Speakers:
Laura Stone: deputy assistant secretary of state for India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, and Bhutan.
Reed Werner: deputy assistant secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia.
Ashley J. Tellis: Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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Stevenson’s army, November 29
WaPo’s Paul Kane notes that several Senate committees will be unable to hold hearings on Biden nominees because their chairmen have retired or been term-limited. The Senate can’t organize itself until the Georgia Senate races are settled. If by chance the chamber ends up 50/50, as in 2001, they will likely look to that arrangement as a model. Here’s CRS’s report on that.
Meanwhile, the outgoing 116th Congress has a heavy December workload
David Sanger suggest the Fakhrizadeh killing may have been Israel’s way of preventing a Biden administration from resurrecting the nuclear deal with Iran.
And the NYT has begun investigating economic ties of new nominees.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 28
WaPo says the administration is giving career protections to political appointees and stripping it from careerists at OMB.
NYT has details of the confused effort to reform WHO.
Nimitz to the Persian Gulf. What next?
WSJ tells why Netanyahu-MBS meeting failed.
Politico has background on Jake Sullivan.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The whining never stops, but the counting will
Here is the President of the United States, defeated soundly in an election almost four weeks ago, still complaining about supposed fraud, evidence for which his lawyers have been unable to produce in court. He is still hoping to get a case in front of the Supreme Court, where he figures his three appointees will back him, but that is now unlikely. Trump is finished as President, which is why he feels the need to remind the reporter that he still occupies the position.
He continues to insist falsely that the election results are due to fraud for several reasons:
- It helps him to raise money, including in ways that will enable him eventually to pocket the funds.
- It signals his racist followers that he remains one of them, as his fraud complaints focus on cities with large black populations.
- It keeps his base loyal and the Republican Party under his control.
- It enables him to capture media attention that would otherwise drift to Biden.
- He hopes to convince the President-elect to cut a deal that will prevent future prosecution of himself, his family, and his loyalists.
That isn’t likely, but in the meanwhile Trump also intends to exercise as much power as possible before January 20. Yesterday it was leasing Arctic land for oil and gas drilling and killing a leading Iranian nuclear scientist. He apparently intends to pursue every bad idea he and his cabinet can generate, in a desperate effort to prevent President-elect Biden from reversing course. The one idea of his own he appears not to want to pursue is a Covid-19 relief bill. The Senate Republicans don’t want him doing that as they gear up for returning to opposition to all Democratic spending proposals.
Meanwhile, the counting, recounting, and auditing of votes is proceeding. No significant irregularities or miscounting has been discovered. Michigan has certified its election results in favor of Biden with a small increase to Biden in Milwaukee. Wisconsin has completed its recount with a slight increase to Biden. Georgia and Pennsylvania are close to the finish line. There is no real possibility of any change in the result and Trump knows it. The Electoral College outcome December 14 is clear: 306/232, precisely the same as Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton that he has often described as a landslide. It wasn’t, nor is it now, but it is definitive.
Trump will leave the White House January 20. But I imagine he won’t attend the inauguration. No one needs him there, and he can likely attract more media attention by holding his own anti-inauguration elsewhere. The whining never stops, but the counting will.
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A big potential success at risk
The International Crisis Group, the Organization of the African Unity, and others are rightly focused on preventing a humanitarian disaster in Tigray, where Ethiopian forces are threatening to take the regional capital Mekelle from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Tens of thousands have already fled the Tigray Region into Sudan and many other civilians may suffer horribly if the regional capital is assaulted. Reports of atrocities by both sides are rife.
My students and I met last January with TPLF officials and party members during our 12-day study trip to Ethiopia, when we were focused on the full range of ethnic conflicts brewing not only in the far north but also in the Oromo and Amhara regions as well as in the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region. Ethiopia, a country of more than 80 different and often intermingled ethnic groups, has enormous potential for internal ethnic conflict:
But the current conflict, severe as it is and could become in Tigray, is not really about Tigray. It is about Addis Ababa and who holds power there. The TPLFers we met with made it absolutely clear that they did not regard Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Nobel-Prize winning Prime Minister, as legitimate. In the Tigrayan view, he had usurped power by taking control of the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and then moving its resources to his own Progress Party without the required consultation with the Tigrayans, who had in the past dominated the leadership not only of the EPRDF but also the army and other key institutions.
In September the TPLF insisted on holding elections in the Tigray region despite Abiy Ahmed’s postponement of national elections due to the Covid-19 epidemic. Ninety-eight per cent voted for the TPLF. Then, according to the Prime Minister, the TPLF attacked Ethiopian government forces stationed in the region. The message was clear: the TPLF wanted to control its own region without interference or presence from the Addis Ababa government. It is not surprising Abiy Ahmed reacted to the challenge to his authority.
It is going to take more than a ceasefire and accommodation of some sort in the Tigray region to settle things down, though that is the vital first step. The Ethiopian government, which frames the whole matter as a law enforcement issue, wants to arrest and try the TPLF leadership. The TPLF, with overwhelming support in its own region, wants at least autonomy if not (constitutionally guaranteed) secession, though some Tigrayans might be bought off with power-sharing of some sort in Addis Ababa. Certainly the Tigrayan loss of power there is strongly felt, not least because Abiy Ahmed’s much-vaunted agreement to end Ethiopia’s hostilities with Eritrea requires Tigrayan forces to withdraw from territory they have occupied for more than 20 years.
Even if the Tigray conflict is resolved, Ethiopia faces half a dozen other internal conflicts that might and do lead to so far localized violence. And its dispute with Egypt over control of the Blue Nile remains unresolved. Ethiopia is filling the lake behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, but at a rate that for now will not drastically affect the flow of the Nile downstream. With more than 100 million people, Ethiopia is the second largest in Africa. Its success would be a big contribution to stability in the Horn and prosperity in much of the continent. But the risks are real.
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