Peace Picks | November 2nd – November 6, 2020

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream. 

1. How Will the 2020 Presidential Election Shape U.S. Policy in the Middle East? | November 2, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:15 PM AST | Brookings Institute | Register Here

In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election, the United States faces unprecedented domestic and international challenges. Domestically, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage unabated, having already caused over 200,000 fatalities and an economic crisis rivalling the Great Depression. The country is also grappling with sharp social and political polarization, as demonstrated by ongoing protests against police brutality and racism, as well as the controversy over who will replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court. Internationally, great power competition is ramping up, even as the global economy struggles to absorb the double hit of COVID-19 and falling oil prices.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region continues to grapple with its own challenges, not only the economic impact of COVID-19 and lower oil prices, but also ongoing conflicts, failure of governance, as well as rising tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Amid this turmoil, the Trump administration has pursued inconsistent policies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, upending long-standing norms to mixed success.

The Brookings Doha Center and Arab Barometer invite you to attend a webinar on the potential impact of the 2020 U.S. elections on the MENA region. The discussion will address the following questions: How will the results of the U.S. election affect the country’s policies in the MENA region, and vice versa? How does the Arab public view the U.S. and what does a continuation of a Trump presidency mean versus a Biden presidency in the eyes of ordinary citizens in the region? How might the Trump administration’s efforts to promote Israeli normalization and sanction Iran impact voter opinions? And in what ways would a Biden administration be likely to build upon or break away from the current U.S. policies in the region?

Speakers:

Adel Abdel Ghafar (moderator): Fellow – Foreign Policy, Brookings Doha Center

Michael Robbins: Project Director – Arab Barometer

Maha Yahya: Director – Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East

Tamara Cofman Wittes: Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy

Samer Shehata: Professor of Middle East Studies – University of Oklahoma

2. Elections in the Time of COVID-19: Brazilian Edition | November 2, 2020 | 2:00 – 2:45 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

In Brazil and the United States, both continental-sized democracies, holding national elections takes significant planning and management—and COVID-19 has only brought new challenges to election authorities in both countries. But unlike in the United States, where more than 3,000 counties are each responsible for their own electoral process, the supervision and administration of elections in Brazil falls largely on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE): the highest body of electoral justice in Brazil. In coordination with the regional electoral courts, the TSE has been tasked with protecting poll workers and voters alike in more than 5,500 cities across Brazil during the upcoming municipal elections.

Join us for a discussion on the preparations for the Nov. 15 municipal elections—when more than 145 million voters go to the polls in 5,500 cities across Brazil—, the twin challenges of COVID-19 and disinformation, and observations on differing electoral processes in Brazil and the United States.

Speakers:

Justice Luís Roberto Barroso: President of the Superior Electoral Court; Justice of the Supreme Federal Court

Ambassador Thomas A. Shannon, Jr: Co-Chair, Brazil Institute Advisory Council; Senior International Policy Advisor at Arnold & Porter

Paulo Sotero: Distinguished Fellow, Brazil Institute

3. Tbilisi Tallies: Georgia’s Post-Election Outlook | November 2, 2020 | 9:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 31 will be held amid a war on its doorstep, a sharp spike in new coronavirus cases, and ramped-up interference from the Kremlin. The recent escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has challenged the fragile security situation in the South Caucasus. Meanwhile, a rising number of coronavirus infections will prevent international election observers from monitoring the election and may depress voter turnout.

On the bright side, Georgia is also set for what may be its most competitive elections to date, after the legislature passed electoral reforms in June aimed at curbing parliamentary supermajorities. Do all of these developments mean that Georgia is entering a new phase? What can observers expect to see next?

Speakers:

Thomas de Waal: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Europe

Nino Ghvinadze: Non-resident Fellow, Eurasia Center

Laura Linderman: Non-resident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center

Dr. Lincoln Mitchell: Adjunct Research Scholar, Columbia University

Melinda Haring, moderator: Deputy Director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center

4. Election 2020: Results and Implications | November 4, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:15 PM EST | Brookings Institute | Register Here

One of the most significant elections in U.S. history is soon coming to an end. Election officials are expecting a large increase of mail-in ballots and early in-person voting, as well as a big turnout on Election Day. This could mean that the process of counting ballots may take more time than in previous elections. Potential legal challenges could also delay the results of key races. But once the votes are all counted, the results will be confirmed—and the implications are vast.

Newly elected policymakers in federal and state government will be expected to immediately address several ongoing national crises, including the coronavirus pandemic, a cratering economy, climate change, and systemic racism—all while working to unite a deeply divided public. How do the election results relate to what’s happening across the country and what can they tell us about the governing challenges that America will face over the next four years?

On November 4, the day after the election, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar examining the results of the 2020 election. Panelists will review election results, the factors that produced that outcome, policy priorities for the president-elect, and the significance of it all for American democracy.

Speakers:

E.J. Dionne, Jr. moderator: W. Averell Harriman Chair and Senior Fellow – Governance Studies

Camille Busette: Senior Fellow – Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy ProgramDirector – Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative

John Hudak: Deputy Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies

Elaine Kamarck: Founding Director – Center for Effective Public ManagementSenior Fellow – Governance Studies

Molly E. Reynolds: Senior Fellow – Governance Studies

5. Local Elections and the Future of Local Self-Governance in Ukraine | November 5, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:30 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here

Ukraine began to reform local government in 2015 as one of the demands of Euromaidan. Since then, the key achievement of decentralization policy was the empowerment of local communities through merging local districts. These new local governments broadened the scope of their agenda and budget as they merged. In July 2020, the Rada radically decreased the number of local administrations, or rayons, from 490 to 136. The October 2020 local elections brought new leadership into these administrations. Vita Dumanska, Olena Lennon, and Mykhailo Minakov will discuss the results of the local elections, who now governs these reformed localities, and what the consequences of the elections might be on local reforms in the near future.

Speakers:

Vita Dumanska: CEO, CHESNO Movement

Olena Lennon: Former Title VIII-Supported Short-Term Scholar; Adjunct Professor of Political Science and National Security, University of New Haven

Mykhailo Minakov: Senior Advisor; Editor-in-Chief, Focus Ukraine Blog

William E. Pomeranz, moderator: Deputy Director, Kennan Institute

6. The Korean Peninsula After the U.S. Election | November 5, 2020 | 8:00 – 9:10 AM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here

President Donald Trump’s first four years in the White House sparked dramatic shifts in diplomacy in Northeast Asia, including historic summits with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, protracted military negotiations with South Korea and rising strategic competition with China. What could the next four years look like for Asia if he is re-elected? And what changes and challenges might we anticipate if former Vice President Joseph Biden wins the November election?

As Americans head to the polls, experts from the United States, South Korea and Europe examine how foreign policy in the region will be impacted by the man who takes the White House in January 2021. Whether President Trump wins a second term or former Vice President Biden seizes the presidency, the Nov. 3 presidential election is bound to have a deep impact on the Korean Peninsula, including how to rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, navigate a rising China and restore fraying alliances.

Speakers:

Joseph Yun: Senior Adviser to the Asia Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace and Former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea policy

Kim Joonhyung: Chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in South Korea

Jean H. Lee: Director, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; Journalist and former Pyongyang Bureau Chief, Associated Press

Kim Jiyoon: Political Analyst and Host of Jiyoon Kim’s Evening Show on TBS FM

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, moderator: KF-VUB Korea Chair, Institute for European Studies

7. Why is Reform Hard in Ukraine? | November 5, 2020 | 11:30 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Reform efforts in Ukraine have faced numerous challenges in 2020. In March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired many of the reform-minded technocrats in his cabinet and replaced them with establishment figures. Anti-corruption efforts are stymied by courts backed by special interests, while oligarchs and Russian agents control blocs of lawmakers in the Verkhovna Rada, rendering legislative reform difficult. 

Once again, “business as usual” has prompted skepticism in the Ukrainian people. Local elections in late October delivered a sound rebuke of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party, which lost seats in regional parliaments across the country and performed poorly in major mayoral races. What explains the complicated reform dynamic in Ukraine? What can Western partners do to help Ukraine get back on track?

Speakers:

Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Eurasia Center

Dr. Tymofiy Mylovanov: Former Minister of Economic Development, trade, and Agriculture of Ukraine

Serhiy Verlanov: Former Head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine

Melinda Haring: Deputy Director, Eurasia Center

Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: Director, Eurasia Center

8. “New” Saudi Arabia: Social Change, Economic Obstacles, and Western Alliances | November 6, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM EST | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Saudi Arabia’s socioeconomic reforms and progress toward Vision 2030 has been widely celebrated, at the same time as the autocratic actions and human rights abuses by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have received international condemnation. A more globally connected Saudi population is paving the way for greater progress and reform as the government pursues economic diversification initiatives and gradual social liberalization reforms. At this crossroads, Saudi Arabia’s economy has been hit by the Covid-19 pandemic and the oil price wars. 

Given that the US-Saudi alliance historically has been closely tied with economic relations and energy markets, how might these converging economic challenges impact the bilateral relationship? How might shifting sociopolitical dynamics within the kingdom affect its approach to relations with Western countries? What does the history of US-Saudi relations tell us about the complex interplay of economic, political, and security interests the US has in the Gulf, and how that might impact reform progress in the next decade?

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a conversation between David Rundell and Victor McFarland, two leading scholars who have recently published books detailing different aspects of the Kingdom’s ascent over the past two decades.

Speakers:

Victor McFarland: Associate professor, Department of History, University of Missouri 

David Rundell: Career diplomat; author 

Kristin Diwan, moderator: Senior resident scholar, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington