Referendum on Trump, with Biden the lucky dog

The 2020 electoral campaign comes to an end tomorrow, even if the election itself continues as votes are received, counted, tabulated, and challenged in court. Donald Trump, intentionally or not, has turned the voting into a referendum on his Administration: specifically the handling of Covid-19 but also the economy, race relations, court appointments, trade, and immigration. He has proposed no clear program for the next four years, only a vague promise of restoring economic growth and continuing to shape the Federal judiciary in a conservative direction. Other than that, his primary focus is to tag the Democrats as socialists, assert that they will raise everyone’s taxes, and claim they plan to move poor (read black and brown) people to the suburbs (along with other racist tropes).

Joe Biden has been a good deal more explicit about what he would do on Covid-19 (test, trace, and isolate, in addition to a vaccine and improved therapies), the economy (a new relief bill focused on the middle class and poor), and taxes (raise them on higher incomes and some companies) while trying to undo the harm Trump has done on race, the courts, trade, environment, and immigration. Despite trying hard, Trump has not tagged Biden with malfeasance in or out of office. The allegations against Biden’s son, Hunter, have gotten little traction. Nor has Biden suffered from any serious gaffes, a problem in his previous campaigns. But his virtues may not matter all that much. A lot of people will be voting for Biden because he is not Trump.

So far as I can tell, the extensive foreign interference in the campaign by Russia, China, and Iran (in that order of intensity) hasn’t had much impact, though I am not sure we would yet know. Americans are voting in record numbers, which means Moscow and Beijing’s objective of undermining commitment to democracy doesn’t look like it is being fulfilled. Russia seems less committed to Trump than four years ago but would still prefer him, ditto China because he has proven ineffectual, and the Trump Administration has accused Iran of faking Proud Boys threats against Biden voters patently intended to help Trump.

Election Day and the aftermath may bring them more of what Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran want: confusion, tension, demonstrations, and violence. President Trump’s refusal to pledge himself to a peaceful and orderly transition is great from the perspective of foreign adversaries. He has also praised campaign violence against his opponent’s supporters Friday in Texas and encouraged stunts like yesterday’s closing down of New Jersey’s Garden State Parkway by Trump caravans. Republicans are in court all over the US trying to limit voting and counting of votes. It appears they know they can’t win if everyone who wants to exercises their rights.

More trouble may lie ahead, not less. If the results favor Trump Tuesday night, he is expected to declare victory, even though in many states fewer than half the votes will have been counted, because so many people (skewed towards Biden supporters) have voted by mail (likely 60-70% of the total). Opening the envelopes, checking signatures, and counting mailed-in ballots takes longer in some battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Trump has already claimed that there will be massive fraud, an allegation with no credible evidence whatsoever. But that won’t matter to his acolytes.

If, contrary to expectations, things go smoothly on Election Day and thereafter the country will still face big issues. If Biden is elected, he can expect to get little cooperation from the outgoing Administration before January 20, when he would take office. Trump will be preoccupied with pardons for himself, his family, and his associates as well as approving as many judges as possible for confirmation before the Senate is turned over to Democratic control, which is looking likely if Biden wins. Trump will also be trying to ensure that government records don’t document his funneling of government money into his own businesses, as that might well violate state laws (from which he cannot pardon anyone).

Still, Biden should count himself a lucky dog if he wins. I wouldn’t describe his campaign as lackluster, but it lacked the kind of panache often needed to beat an incumbent president (example: Ronald Reagan v Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton v George H.W. Bush). Two-term presidents are more the norm in post-World War II America, as it often takes longer than four years for the country to recognize a president’s mistakes. I’m still flabbergasted that America didn’t punish George W. Bush in 2004 for his mistaken invasion of Iraq, which ranked as the worst decision of the century until Trump decided not to bother doing much about Covid-19. John Kerry didn’t have panache either.

I hope that will not be the case this time around. Trump has been a disaster, and a majority of the country knows it according to the polls. The question now is whether they will vote and whether their votes will be counted. If so, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be inaugurated in January.

PS: This from Van Jones, CNN commentator and Yale Law School graduate, is worth your time: