Day: November 4, 2020
Stevenson’s army, November 4
For only the 4th time since the Civil War, we won’t know the winner of a presidential contest within a day or two. In 1876, a congressionally established commission decided between competing electoral slates from 3 states in February. In 1916, Charles Evans Hughes waited until November 22 to concede to Woodrow Wilson. In 2000, the Supreme Court stopped the vote count in Florida in mid- December.And now we await final returns and possible recounts — and maybe additional legal challenges — in five states. The Senate majority is also uncertain — and may not be resolved until Georgia runoff election[s] on January 5.
WaPo says Cybercom ran an operation against Iran before the election .
A US general says US troops might be sent to Senkaku Islands.
WOTR has a provocative piece saying US military is wrong to plan against a fait accompli in the Baltics or Taiwan.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The count counts, let it proceed
Last night’s strong showing by Donald Trump in a lot of states where he was thought to be vulnerable was surprising. It appears he may have won all the “new” battlegrounds: certainly Florida and Texas, likely Georgia and North Carolina. If you believed the polls and support Biden like me that is disappointing. So too is the apparent failure of the Democrats to gain control of the Senate.
What appears to have happened is that both Democrats and Republicans enjoyed enormous turn out , with many more people voting than in previous presidential elections. The result is a clash between red and blue waves whose outcome unpredictable, as the votes in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are still being counted. But the still uncounted ballots were mostly mailed in, which implies an advantage for Biden. Democrats did much more absentee voting while Republicans turned out more on Election Day.
That is why President Trump tried to announce his victory early this morning and pledged to go to the Supreme Court to stop “the voting,” by which he meant the vote counting. He is unlikely to be able to do that, as the votes are counted in municipalities and states over which he has little control. The Republicans will however go into court challenging procedures and ballots wherever they can. One or more of those challenges could reach the Supreme Court, as happened in Florida in 2000.
What we can say about this election so far is that it has been peaceful and orderly. The President’s threat to send his people to swarm polling places did not materialize. Neither did major Election Day voter suppression activities. There are no credible major claims of fraud or malfeasance, despite the President’s attempt to label vote counting after Election Day as criminal. If Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran aimed to undermine confidence in America’s ability to administer a democratic election, they failed. My fellow Americans seem to have enjoyed registering their dramatically different views of Donald Trump at the ballot box.
It is unclear why the polling was so far off the mark. The cause seems to be Trump voters who are not responding truthfully to pollsters. This is strange, as there is little embarrassment in calling yourself a conservative or a Republican in the places where he gets most of his votes. My guess is that in “blue” cities and suburbs, many of his supporters know he is a racist and don’t want to be tagged with that label. Denying you are a racist is very much part of American racist identity, especially in communities where it might bring opprobrium.
The outcome is still uncertain, but the Democrats and Republicans I listen to this morning (mostly on National Public Radio) think you would much rather be Joe Biden in the current situation than Donald Trump. Biden has more different routes to 270 electoral votes. The outstanding ballots will be mainly in his favor. The big question is when we’ll get a definitive resolution. The longer it takes, the more opportunity there is for Trump to disrupt the count. But there is no decent alternative to letting it proceed.
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