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The broader picture isn’t pretty

While the victory of Joe Biden in the presidential contest is cheering, the broader picture isn’t pretty. It’s not only that President Trump got about 70 million votes, despite four years of erratic, corrupt, racist, misogynist, and incompetent governance. The “down ballot” contests went badly for the Democrats.

They gained two seats in the Senate, but that is not enough to wrest control from the Republicans. There is a slim chance they could win control in two Georgia run-offs on January 5, but the hopes they had of an unequivocal outcome did not materialize. A Republican majority in the upper house will severely limit Biden’s political freedom, as a majority is needed in the Senate not only for legislation but also for appointment of judges and Administration officials. Biden will need all the skills he built up over more than four decades in Congress to get Republicans to cross the aisle while holding on to his Democratic supporters. He will not be able without a Senate majority to admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, which should be the first priority of a Democratic-controlled Senate.

The picture in the House is better but not great. There the Democrats held on to their majority but may have lost a handful of seats.

The big problem is not in the House of Representatives but in the state houses and governorships, which will be redrawing Congressional districts next year on the basis of this year’s fraught census. It was conducted under non-ideal conditions due to the epidemic, and Trump is still trying to skew the results in the Republican direction by not counting non-citizens (as the constitution requires). The Republican-controlled state legislatures are past masters at gerrymandering Congressional districts to enhance Republican representation both in their own bodies and in the Congress.

How could this happen? In short, the blue wave met a red wave. Turnout was up from around 60% in 2016 to over 66% in 2020. I have a college classmate who argues that the main motivating issue was the economy. I doubt that. I think it was race. The “white” majority in the United States has discovered what the demographers have long known: their numbers are in relative decline. They fear this decline will lead to a decline in political power. We’ll need to await more detailed parsing of the results to be certain, but my guess is that some people disgusted with Trump nevertheless wanted to reassert traditional American values, which include white control of the levers of power.

Rick Perlstein on NPR this morning told you everything you need to know about the history of the factions within the Republican party that wanted to hold on to power without commanding a majority:

The Republican party has become overwhelmingly white, despite the small drift of black males in his direction. Nor does Trump’s ability to attract Cuban American and Venezuelan American votes prove the contrary. I’ll bet that the overwhelming majority of those who voted for Trump regard themselves as white. This will continue until we get rid of the Electoral College, admit DC and Puerto Rico as states, and make same-day registration a reality throughout the land. Then Republicans will need to appeal more broadly across racial lines to gain a majority. That is the direction it appeared Lincoln’s party was prepared to take in the early 2000s. It is a shame that approach did not prevail.

For now, though, guys like me will have to be relieved that Biden has triumphed. It was really close. Biden will end up with something like 5 million more votes than Trump and possibly as many electoral votes as Trump got in 2016. But Trump’s 70 million will have their say in an unrepresentative Senate and a gerrymandered House.

PS: On the lame duck months until January 20, here is a first approximation: