Stay tuned, even if waiting is no fun

President Trump’s refusal to concede the election is causing a lot of angst in Washington, where concern about an orderly transition is paramount. I’m afraid though this is a prime example of “where you stand is where you sit.” The votes are still being counted and the race is still tight in several states, even if the eventual outcome is as close to certain as things can be at this stage. Trump and his supporters believe that his rallies proved he had popular backing. They won’t be satisfied until all his legal options are closed off. I’m in favor of his pursuing them, if only so that he and they will eventually face reality.

There are risks in this approach, especially in Pennsylvania. There the Republican state legislature could chose a slate of electors different from the one that wins the election. If they certify that slate before December 7, it could not be challenged. Only if they miss that date could the governor certify a different slate. His would then prevail in the Electoral College. But the margin in Pennsylvania is already up to 45,000, with perhaps another 140,000 votes still to be counted. It is more likely the margin will increase than decrease, which would make any shenanigans by the state legislature grossly abusive.

Besides, it is not clear that even with Pennsylvania, which put Biden over the 270 Electoral Vote margin required to win, that Trump would make it. He is losing at this point in too many battlegrounds:

Biden will proceed apace in preparing for the White House without a concession from Trump. He has a fantastically experienced and knowledgeable stable of people backing him as well as lots more willing to provide financing. The Federal money available once Trump allows it to be released is less than $10 million so far as I can tell.

There are real limits on what Biden can hope for from the Trump Administration. Some of its leaders are grossly incompetent. Others will follow the President’s lead in being unhelpful. There is little policy overlap on main issues like Covid-19 response, climate change, and foreign policy. Some of what Biden will prioritize–a new stimulus package, for example–will require Congressional action, not coordination with the Trump Administration.

The President himself is spending his time on his golf courses, where the Secret Service and other government officials run up big hotel tabs. He has said little of note except his unfounded claim that the election is being stolen. He is rapidly losing traction with the media, which has become noticeably blunter in pointing out his lies. Republicans in Congress are mostly silent or sticking by him. Comforted by their unexpectedly strong showings “down ballot,” they seem disinclined to indulge in any serious soul searching. I expect Senate Majority Leader McConnell to set up a hard opposition to whatever Biden tries to do.

The most important political question in America today is what Georgia will do on January 5, when it holds two run-off elections for Senate seats, which there require a candidate to get more than 50% of the vote. The Republican candidates have both missed by a hair. Mobilization for January 5 among both Republicans and Democrats will be massive. If somehow–against the odds–the Democrats can win both seats, they will gain control of the Senate and the real possibility of legislating Biden’s hopes–including a stimulus and Covid-19 response package, a public option for health care as well as shoring up Obamacare, and tax increases on the wealthy and corporations–into reality.

So we’ll have to wait a bit longer to know in which direction America will move and how fast. Stay tuned.

PS: Yes, stay tuned, as I realize there is a wrinkle here I somehow failed to see. Trump will be seeking from Biden guarantees in exchange for his concession. I won’t speculate on what those might be, but I hope Biden won’t concede anything in exchange for concession.