It wasn’t Colonel Mustard in the study

The New York Times reports that “Israeli operatives” killed Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah (aka Abu Muhammad al-Masri) three months ago in Tehran. He was supposedly Al Qaeda’s second in command (and its number one is rumored to be dead as well).

The killing occurred in such a netherworld of geopolitical intrigue and counterterrorism spycraft that Mr. al-Masri’s death had been rumored but never confirmed until now. For reasons that are still obscure, Al Qaeda has not announced the death of one of its top leaders, Iranian officials covered it up, and no country has publicly claimed responsibility for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/world/middleeast/al-masri-abdullah-qaeda-dead.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

There are other mysteries as well: why didn’t the Israelis or the Americans claim credit? President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu would have had an interest in doing so. How do Israelis or someone in their employ kill people on the streets of Tehran? Why was an Al Qaeda commander doing in living in Tehran? And who is the source of this story now and what are their motives?

Starting with this last question, the Times article refers to intelligence officials without identifying their nationality. Best bet is that they are Israeli, but they could also be American, Gulf Arab, or even Iranian. Each might have an interest in either committing the murder or letting it be known, especially in the transition period to the Biden Administration. There are few better ways to curry favor with the Americans than to kill an Al Qaeda commander. Someone might even hope for indirect credit for killing an Al Qaeda commander by revealing it publicly.

The Times suggests al-Masri had been in Tehran for a decade or more, hosted there either because Al Qaeda conducts operations against American interests that Iran likes or as a hostage to guarantee Al Qaeda would not attack Iranian interests. Both could simultaneously be true.

Murders of this sort in Tehran have happened repeatedly. The victims are often Iranian nuclear scientists whom the Israelis want eliminated. It might be Israelis of Iranian origin doing the killing, though it is hard to imagine that the Islamic Republic doesn’t know when they come to visit. Nor would Jewish Iranians still resident in the country be outside the purview of Iranian intelligence. Could it be the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK)? I am told that is one reason why some Americans are soft on them. They however would also be closely watched if they dared to return to Iran. Or it could be some other “resistance” organization. Of course it is also possible that the Islamic Republic itself decided al-Masri’s time was up.

The impact on Al Qaeda is far from clear, even though months have supposedly elapsed. I suppose with Zawahiri on his deathbed Al Qaeda didn’t think it wise to announce that his heir apparent was dead. Decapitation of this sort has an uncertain impact on terrorist organizations. But Al Qaeda has survived decapitation before and it may well again.

Of course we may never know all the answers to all the questions about this assassination. But now we have precious few. All we really know is that it wasn’t Colonel Mustard with the candlestick in the study.