Worst and best cases, neither all that great

Posted in Daniel Serwer - November 23, 2020 - 0 Comment

Younger brother Jeremy Serwer writes:

We’re almost done.

That said, apparently our Constitution provides no prescription for next steps if a President refuses to step down and leave.  In a nutshell, the Founders couldn’t imagine this happening, and/or felt that such a President would be impeached/tried/convicted out of office first.   

Good piece in The Washington Post today on the issue:

So, a possible worst case scenario, IMHO:

  • Enough states certify their Electors to keep Biden over 270
  • Trump’s attempts to reverse Electors at the Electoral College fail: legal penalties prevent electors from turning
  • A final appeal by the Trump Campaign to the Supreme Court
  • Court rules in favor of Biden
  • Trump still doesn’t concede
  • Preparations proceed for the Inauguration on the Capitol steps (won’t be challenged as Trump would also need to be inaugurated if he thinks he won)
  • On January 20, 2021 at noon Biden is either sworn in, or Trump manages to disrupt the Inauguration attempting to co-opt the swearing in ceremony
  • EITHER WAY, as of a second after noon on January 20 Trump is no longer President, per the Constitution and the 20th Amendment
  • In preparation, the Secret Service, the Capitol Police, and/or the US military is prepared to block Trump and maintain order.  Their context for not supporting President Trump: none of these services will execute what their leadership identifies as an illegal order, and our statutes protect that position.  Hard to believe there’s not a lot of discussion going on in those offices.
  • Biden is inaugurated
  • Trump could conceivably be taken from the White House/Oval Office by force

Hopefully, the more likely scenario:

Cooler heads in the Trump family (and/or close enough confidants that Trump will not fire due to what they may know – think VP Pence?), and/or pressure from Republicans in Congress not subject to near term re-election, convince him that he has lost, that he should concede (though he may not). While he may not attend the Inauguration nor assist/facilitate the transition, he steps back from disrupting it and prepares to leave the Oval Office and the White House residence.  Best case, he finally concedes and does attend Biden’s Inauguration.

No matter what happens, our country will remain sharply divided over who should be President.  There will be demonstrations, potentially violence, though this too will dissipate – PARTICULARLY if we begin to curb the pandemic, consequently restore the economy to a better normalcy, and further reduce the unemployment rate – and those not working and not included in that rate – begin to get jobs back.  After all, how much demonstrating can you do if you have your job(s) back, need to be at work, and by so doing are not at risk of virus infection and potentially death?

Finally, some predictions that won’t go away for a bit:

  1. A poor transition (assuming the GSA head still refuses to support Biden’s transition efforts) results in varied chaos for the new administration, no matter how much they are attempting to fund and execute a transition without cooperation from the Trump Administration.
  2. Without preparatory knowledge of Operation Warp Speed details, therapeutic treatments, PPE supplies, and vaccine distribution could be delayed or disrupted.
  3. Other areas of the Biden Administration will be slow to gear up.
  4. We will not have heard the last from Donald Trump.  The Donald and his Trump minions will remain loud via social media and our e-mail IN Boxes.  If he stays healthy, and/or a charismatic replacement arises, the 4-year campaign to 2024 will remain a doozy.
  5. Hopefully, newspapers/cable/radio (e.g., “traditional” media) will stop covering him the way they do now.
  6. Biden maintains his recently stated position of not prosecuting former Presidents.
  7. Domestically, policing/race/equality issues return to the forefront, particularly if the pandemic remains extant through all or most of 2021.
  8. And, in January, a possible victory by Democrats in the Georgia Senate run-offs giving them a tie-breaking majority in the Senate.  At this juncture, as likely as it is not; if it happens, my prior trifecta prediction of a Dem sweep comes to fruition – albeit, barely.

Of course, none of the above could be accurate or happen, though I believe some semblance of it will.  Our system – even when it’s NOT defined or prescribed – will settle this, as it’s ultimately human beings that make things work.  I believe the large majority of Americans are that type of human being.

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