Month: November 2020
Sore loser sets himself up for more losses
Donald Trump is resisting the inevitable: the end of his term as President and his return to private life, where he no doubt anticipates financial and legal troubles galore. The American legal system provides him with ample opportunities to protest and delay while he and his minions claim with no factual basis whatsoever that the result of the November 3 election was fraudulent. He has already lost more than two dozen law suits and withdrawn a few more.
So now he is doing something unprecedented. He is trying to prevent certification of the election results in order to make it possible for Republican-controlled state legislatures to decide who won in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. In the first three of these, there are Democratic governors who can themselves endorse a winner; their choice prevails in Washington if two slates of electors arrive from the state capital when the Electoral College meets on December 14.
So the odds are long on this plot to negate the votes of millions of Americans, many of them Black and Latinx. Trump and the Republicans don’t care. They are essentially trying to turn the clock back to the original constitution, which counted each slave as 3/5* of a person for purposes of Electoral College votes but of course did not allow them (or women, or men who didn’t own property) to vote. Trump is a racist who doesn’t want Black and Latinx votes to count as much as a white person’s. Lindsey Graham was explicit about his concern in discussing mailed ballots:
If we don’t do something about voting by mail, we are going to lose the ability to elect a Republican in this country.
I’m pretty sure what some people are calling a “coup” (note the Trumpian locution) won’t work, not least because of those Democratic governors. There may still be some uncertainty as to how this will all shake out, but it won’t likely be in Trump’s favor. Nor will he be remembered well for attempting it. While his “base” remains mostly loyal for now, the passage of time has a way of giving people with even a modicum of brains and conscience pause for reflection. I know there is a wildly optimistic premise in that remark.
From another angle, I am rather enjoying the repeated failures of Trump’s expensive and mendacious team of supposed lawyers, led by Rudy Giuliani. They have disgraced themselves both in court and in public. Disbarring might be too good for them. People who in public allege malfeasance and offer no substantial evidence for it merit universal shunning. May they never find another sucker client.
That’s what Trump is. A sucker and a loser, one who is compounding his losses with every passing day. He hopes to get lucky in one court or another, but so far at least it isn’t happening. His consolation prize will be continued control over the remnants of the Republican party and a base too small to win an election. Let him run again in 2024, if he isn’t in prison, so he can lose again.
*I originally wrote 2/3 here. Apologies.
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Stevenson’s army, November 20
Look how bad aircraft readiness rates have been, as reported by GAO.
A think tank reports on Japanese efforts to influence US policies
FP says Ethiopia risks becoming the new Yugoslavia..
Kori Schake warns against an attack on Iran.
Politico says Senate Republicans may approve Biden cabinet.
AP report on NDAA negotiations misses key context. It correctly notes that the bill contains a 3% military pay raise, but that in fact is the only reason an authorization bill is necessary. [Permanent law would give a smaller raise.] It fails to note that a presidential veto because of base names would be no real problem. Every other time the NDAA has been vetoed, a revised version has been quickly passed, deleting the criticized provisions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 19
– The acting SecDef signed an order elevating the Special Forces to a status equal to the Service secretaries. There’s confusion as to what this means in practice.
– A GMU institute has some ideas on the defense industrial base.
– Many voices have criticized the administration’s abrupt drawdown from Afghanistan. Andrew Bacevich offers a contrary view.
Politico offers some wise words on Sen. McConnell:
MCCONNELL HAS A MAXIM, though, and it’s quite easy to discern from watching the Capitol: If you can beat him, beat him. MCCONNELL is driven by power. If you have the votes to stop him from exerting his will, then do it, and if you can’t, then that’s too bad. He doesn’t care for letters urging him to do things, or press conferences calling him the devil. To call it bare-knuckle politics would be kind.
DEMOCRATS ARE EAGER TO REMIND that they don’t play MCCONNELL’S game. And that couldn’t be more evident.
MCCONNELL’S strength is that he has a united Senate GOP Conference at nearly all times. They follow him, and trust him. So, the road map for BIDEN here is quite clear. He has two general options: Can BIDEN create an environment in which he has a governing coalition willing to split with MCCONNELL? Or, more likely, can BIDEN — the self-styled master legislator — act quickly to move on areas in which the two sides have shared legislative priorities: Covid relief and perhaps a government funding deal, if that doesn’t get done this month.
ANOTHER THING THAT WILL DRIVE Republicans is a tough 2022 map. There are a bunch of potentially competitive states Republicans will have to wage races in, including FLORIDA, GEORGIA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA and WISCONSIN.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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His grip is loosening, but his cult is strong
The signs are few and far between. Republican members of an election board in Michigan that had divided on certifying results in Biden’s favor reversed itself and did so last night. Senator McConnell has criticized the Administration’s plan for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Other Republican senators are keeping quiet on the many court challenges and the validity of the election results. Rudy Giuliani, the President’s personal lawyer, embarrassed himself in a Pennsylvania courtroom when he was unable to cite specific examples of election fraud.
Trump himself is pulling out all the stops. He claimed in a tweet that more people voted in Milwaukee than were registered to vote there. That lie was easily debunked. He fired his own appointee in charge of election security, because that official contradicted the President’s claim that there was widespread fraud. Trump is spreading rumors of his intention to run again in 2024, a prospect belied both by his poor physical condition and the likelihood he’ll spend the next four years and more in court trying to fend off lawsuits and Internal Revenue Service charges. He continues to ignore the elephant in the room: an epidemic that has now killed more than 250,000 Americans on his watch and is accelerating rapidly. Another 50,000 or so will likely die before Trump leaves office.
Still, the fan base remains strong. His voters overwhelmingly believe Biden did not legitimately win and that Trump should not concede. They like his effort to contest the election results in court, an effort that has so far produced no significant change in the vote totals and more than two dozen judicial losses. While quite a few Republican governors and mayors are issuing orders to compel people to wear masks, Trump’s loyalists–even some in intensive care units infected with Covid-19–claim the virus doesn’t exist or isn’t worse than the flu. They remain intent on their freedom not to wear a mask. It’s almost as if there is an epidemic of self-delusion, which is carried not by a virus but by a adherence to the cult of a failed president.
Biden meanwhile is building up his administration, staying calm but clear about the virus as his first priority. He will be lucky: the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines that have proven highly effective will be available in millions of doses about the time he takes office January 20. But it will still be six months or more before most of the population can be vaccinated. The Trumpians will resist and likely label the vaccines Biden hoaxes. The irony of course is that they are partly the result of Trump’s own early decision to pour government money into developing and producing them. He convinced people that the virus was a hoax but also spent billions to inoculate the country against it.
Contradiction and incoherence were never obstacles for Trump and his followers. They simply don’t care about consistency, logic, or science. Their main preoccupation is with their own identity as real Americans, by which they mean white Christians. Yes, there appear to have been some shifts in voting toward Trump among white women, Latinos and black males. But his cult remains overwhelmingly white and male. They are however in demographic decline and increasingly will, as Lindsay Graham has avowed openly, have trouble winning elections if everyone is allowed to vote. Still, there is no sign that the Republican Party is preparing to reconsider its white nationalist course. Trump’s cult remains strong, even if his grip on power is loosening.
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Stevenson’s army, November 18
The Acting Defense Secretary announced cutbacks in US troops overseas. The press noticed that the CJCS was not present at the briefing.
Stars & Stripes says US will leave Somalia but stay in Djibouti
Micah Zenko notes that, even with the cuts in Afghanistan, there will be 22K civilian contractors..
NYT says foreign countries are signing up US lobbyists with Biden ties.
The Post’s Dave Weigel summarizes the gerrymander consequences of the elections. GOP ahead; Dems fell short.
Another think tank group releases its plan for State Dept reform.
Interesting suggestion for a special China directorate on NSC.
And strangely, the State Dept policy planning staff has released a heavily footnoted paper on the China challenge.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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EUSR Lajcak at SAIS 10:30 am Thursday
The Conflict Management Program
is pleased to invite you to attend a guest lecture by
Miroslav Lajcak
EU Special Representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue
and other Western Balkan regional issues
Mr. Lajčák is a Slovak Diplomat who previously served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia (2009-2010 and 2012-2020), and as President of the United Nations General Assembly for its 72nd Session. He previously served as EU Special Envoy in charge of mediating the rules and procedures for 2006 Montenegro’s referendum on independence; he was also the EU Special Representative to Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2007-2009; and EEAS Managing Director for Russia, Eastern Neighborhood and the Western Balkans 2010-2012.
Welcome remarks:
Dr. Daniel Serwer: Director of Conflict Management
The lecture and subsequent discussion will be moderated by:
Dr. Siniša Vuković: Associate Director of Conflict Management
Thursday, November 19, 2020 from 10:30am-11:45am EST
Registration link for the Webinar: https://jh.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_lhe4P7eDRfcZzeA5lNIFQ
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