Month: November 2020

Stevenson’s army, November 15

China has reached a free trade agreement with 14 other nations.  USA is MIA.
Slate explains how a Biden administration can install its nominees even if a GOP Senate opposes them: use the Vacancy Act and the presidential power to adjourn Congress long enough for recess appointments.

WaPo has more on SecDef Esper’s warning about Afghanistan just before he was fired.
WaPo lists the many norms broken by Pres. Trump.
Dean Cohen’s new Atlantic article also analyzes Trump.
Lawfare explains the legal issues behind the Ellis appointment as NSA General Counsel.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , ,

It wasn’t Colonel Mustard in the study

The New York Times reports that “Israeli operatives” killed Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah (aka Abu Muhammad al-Masri) three months ago in Tehran. He was supposedly Al Qaeda’s second in command (and its number one is rumored to be dead as well).

The killing occurred in such a netherworld of geopolitical intrigue and counterterrorism spycraft that Mr. al-Masri’s death had been rumored but never confirmed until now. For reasons that are still obscure, Al Qaeda has not announced the death of one of its top leaders, Iranian officials covered it up, and no country has publicly claimed responsibility for it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/13/world/middleeast/al-masri-abdullah-qaeda-dead.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

There are other mysteries as well: why didn’t the Israelis or the Americans claim credit? President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu would have had an interest in doing so. How do Israelis or someone in their employ kill people on the streets of Tehran? Why was an Al Qaeda commander doing in living in Tehran? And who is the source of this story now and what are their motives?

Starting with this last question, the Times article refers to intelligence officials without identifying their nationality. Best bet is that they are Israeli, but they could also be American, Gulf Arab, or even Iranian. Each might have an interest in either committing the murder or letting it be known, especially in the transition period to the Biden Administration. There are few better ways to curry favor with the Americans than to kill an Al Qaeda commander. Someone might even hope for indirect credit for killing an Al Qaeda commander by revealing it publicly.

The Times suggests al-Masri had been in Tehran for a decade or more, hosted there either because Al Qaeda conducts operations against American interests that Iran likes or as a hostage to guarantee Al Qaeda would not attack Iranian interests. Both could simultaneously be true.

Murders of this sort in Tehran have happened repeatedly. The victims are often Iranian nuclear scientists whom the Israelis want eliminated. It might be Israelis of Iranian origin doing the killing, though it is hard to imagine that the Islamic Republic doesn’t know when they come to visit. Nor would Jewish Iranians still resident in the country be outside the purview of Iranian intelligence. Could it be the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK)? I am told that is one reason why some Americans are soft on them. They however would also be closely watched if they dared to return to Iran. Or it could be some other “resistance” organization. Of course it is also possible that the Islamic Republic itself decided al-Masri’s time was up.

The impact on Al Qaeda is far from clear, even though months have supposedly elapsed. I suppose with Zawahiri on his deathbed Al Qaeda didn’t think it wise to announce that his heir apparent was dead. Decapitation of this sort has an uncertain impact on terrorist organizations. But Al Qaeda has survived decapitation before and it may well again.

Of course we may never know all the answers to all the questions about this assassination. But now we have precious few. All we really know is that it wasn’t Colonel Mustard with the candlestick in the study.

Tags : , ,

Stevenson’s army, November 14

At US request, Israeli agents killed al Qaeda leader in Tehran.
China reacts to Pompeo statements on Taiwan.
Pew has more analysis of what went wrong with polls.
Defense One has a chapter from Tom Ricks’ new book about the ideas of the Founders.
As a Coloradan  who could see Pike’s Peak in the distance when I was growing up, I’ve always had a fondness for “America the Beautiful,” written by Katharine Lee Bates after a visit there. Historian Jill Lepore has the story.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , ,

You know who is trying to steal the election

What is Donald Trump up to? His refusal to acknowledge the result of the election more than 10 days on is harmful:

  • It limits the Biden team’s preparation for taking on presidential responsibilities January 20, including distribution of Covid19 vaccines.
  • It makes the US, supposedly the leader of the democratic world, look unable to conduct a clean election and manage its own political contestation.
  • It promulgates uncertainty and projects unreliability to adversaries and allies.
  • It may encourage Trump or our adversaries to indulge in badly calculated moves both at home and on the world stage.

Trump doesn’t care about any of this. He puts his personal interests first. Those are also clear:

  • As a transactional negotiator and an ornery personality, he sees no need to give up anything voluntarily. He wants to be bought off, perhaps with promises about limiting judicial investigations of his Administration once Biden takes office.
  • He is using his “stop the steal” campaign to raise money, ostensibly for his legal efforts to promote recounts but it flows first to the Republican National Committee and a political action committee that can fund his and his family’s personal expenses.
  • Uninterested in (and incapable of) the usual ex-president role as a distinguished senior statesman, he aims to maintain control over the Republican Party for as long as he can, with the aim of either running again in 2024 or putting up Don Jr. for the role.
  • He hopes to generate surprises: an outcome of the Georgia recount in his favor (which would not alone ensure him of election) and a move by the Republican-controlled Pennsylvania legislature to try to endorse his slate of electors for the December 14 voting of the Electoral College rather than Biden’s (which would also not alone ensure him of election).
  • Failing those surprises, he will try to block Republican-led states from conveying Biden votes to the Electoral College, where Biden will be elected only if he has at least 270 electoral votes.

None of this is likely to work, but Trump believes what he tells his sycophants: anything is possible if you just push the envelope. I have to admit that his election in 2016 is a good illustration of that thesis.

The question is why any self-respecting Republican would go along with this fantasy. The answer lies in Trump’s well-established record of vindictiveness and those 71 million votes he so proud of (even though they were 5 million fewer than Biden’s). A few Republican members of Congress have peeled off and many Republican state and local officials are testifying to the integrity of the election. But the bulk of the Republican Party appears content to remain in the hands of the President who delivered so well on nominating judges who would do the Party’s bidding and lowering of taxes on corporations and the wealthy, without regard for the budget deficit the GOP complains about when a Democrat occupies the White House.

All of this is enabled by a media landscape that neatly divides Americans between major population centers and surrounding rural areas. I see no likelihood that will change. It simply doesn’t matter to Trump’s supporters if he lies to them about the election being stolen or Covid-19 being a hoax (and disappearing). They complain about government interference, worry about socialism, and resist wearing masks because it infringes on their freedom, but they also happily follow USDA instructions not to plant crops and cash their agricultural subsidy checks, which have ballooned by about $40 billion under Trump. No one on their airwaves is going to note he inconsistencies.

This is one of the most troubling results of four years of lying governance. Consistency, facts, scientific knowledge, and truthfulness no longer matter to about half the American population, which is content to vote for someone who lies without hesitation. I know who is trying to steal the election, and so do you, but they don’t.

Tags :

Stevenson’s army, November 13

NYT has another deep[ dive on what was wrong with polling this year.
Looks like drones won the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
NYT sees new cold war in the Arctic.
Outgoing ambassador said US troop numbers in Syria were hidden from Trump.
More bad ideas from McGregor.
Gen. Milley wrongly seems to suggest only US troops don’t take oath to a person. In fact: United States armed forces take an oath to support and defend a piece of paper—the Constitution. The British military take an oath of allegiance to the monarch. German forces swear to defend the law and liberty of the people. The Japanese vow to maintain the nation’s independence and peace. Russians swear loyalty to the Fatherland. Perhaps not surprisingly, the French armed forces, after five republics, two empires, numerous monarchies and several attempted military coups, take no oath.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , , , ,

Stevenson’s army, November 12

Jonathan Swan of Axios says the firings and shuffling in the Pentagon may be the prelude to rapid troop withdrawals before the inauguration. Politico echoes that and adds efforts to put loyalists in the intelligence community.
While the simplest explanation may be revenge by the president, the maneuvering of people who couldn’t even be confirmed by a GOP Senate suggests a master plotter — NSA O’Brien?
WaPo notes the uneasy position these moves put CJCS Milley in.
NYT doubts a master plot,  but also reports a recent clash between the new acting SecDef and SecState Pompeo.
This is not a good time for the national security leadership to be in such disarray.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

Tags : , , ,
Tweet