Day: December 8, 2020
America has lost the right stuff
America has lost the right stuff. Chuck Yeager, a World War II ace who broke the sound barrier in his “Glamorous Glennis” X-1 in 1947, was a master pilot possessed of calm and humble commitment to duty and country. He died at 97 yesterday, having broken many more flying records:
His character seems almost foreign in today’s America. We have a president who can’t understand why people serve in the armed forces. We’ve got a party in Congress that won’t acknowledge that president’s loss in the election. We’ve got people who think wearing a mask to protect themselves and others from a deadly virus is an infringement on their political liberty. We’ve got police departments that kill with impunity. We’ve got more than 74 million people who voted for a president responsible for the deaths of more than 280,000 of their fellow citizens.
I don’t know how far the election of Joe Biden can go in curing these ailments. He is going to have his hands full first with Covid 19 and then the economy. He would have to be extraordinarily lucky to have the unequivocal support of the Congress. That will be decided January 5, when two Georgia Senate seats are decided in an unusual second-round election. Most states don’t do that, but Georgia does because it was thought an integrationist could squeak by in a multi-candidate first round but not in a two-candidate second round.
Today, all 50 states met the deadline for certification of election results, guaranteeing that they cannot be challenged in Congress after they are transmitted there when the Electoral College meets on December 14 in state capitals. In theory, that ensures the electoral vote outcome will be 306 to 232, precisely the same outcome as four years ago.
Trump has described that win in 2016 as a landslide. This time around he is refusing even to acknowledge that Joe Biden has won. I doubt Trump is deluding himself. He knows he has lost. He keeps up the charade of opposition to the outcome in order to maintain his dominance of the Republican party and to raise money from fools who believe his nonsense. He is even pretending that he might run in 2024, ignoring the facts of life in order to stifle the Republican competition. He is in poor physical condition already and will be plagued in the next few years by legal and financial troubles. While he might try to forecast the election lights to Don Jr. four years hence, the idea of his running is ludicrous.
Duty and country would require that Donald Trump fade quickly from the limelight and crawl into history as the worst president in a century, if not since the founding. But the man is neither calm nor humble. In an America where duty and country were important, he would never even have dared try to overturn the results of the election with phone calls to governors and state legislators. He never had the right stuff, and the country seems to have lost it.
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My Balkans recommendations for President Biden
Here is my testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs from this morning:
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, not only for this opportunity to testify once again but also for your decades of commitment to Europe whole and free. But the job is not yet finished. Problems remain between Serbia and Kosovo as well as inside Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbia is also a factor.
The essential precondition for solving the remaining Balkan problems is American recommitment to the region, in tandem with European allies. Recent competition between the US and EU, which has demonstrated it cannot do the job on its own, hampered progress. As part of his global re-assertion of democratic values, President Biden should consult the Europeans and announce a joint vision for the Balkan region.
Completing Kosovo statehood
Independent Kosovo is still completing its statehood. Its security forces are progressing toward NATO. Other sovereign institutions are also gaining capability but lack universal recognition.
The Pristina/Belgrade dialogue the EU leads can help but needs more US engagement. The Americans should focus on implementation and reciprocity. The dialogue needs a monitoring mechanism, including for past agreements as well as commitments like Kosovo’s EU visa waiver. Reciprocity should include extension of the Special Chambers’ mandate to crimes committed in Serbia, including the post-war murder of three Americans.
The main US goal for the dialogue is mutual recognition and exchange of ambassadors. President Biden and Chancellor Merkel should make this goal explicit and press the non-recognizing EU members to declare they will recognize Kosovo no later than Serbia does. UN membership will require the Americans to convince Russia and China not to veto.
Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are as fraught as Kosovo’s. The Dayton accords reached 25 years ago entailed territorial division and ethnic power-sharing, ending a terrible war. That formula no longer makes sense for the international community, which pays many of Bosnia’s bills, or for its citizens, who suffer dysfunctional governance.
Dayton today serves the interests of ethnic robber barons. One arms his statelet for secession while another eggs him on and the third complains. The US should press the Europeans to sanction those who advocate Republika Srpska independence and to strengthen and reposition their troops, visibly backed by the US, to the northeastern town of Brcko, to block secession. The US should seek to block Russian arming of entity police as well as Croatian and Serbian political interference.
Europe and the US want a post-Dayton Bosnia that can qualify for EU membership. That Bosnia will be based not on ethnic power-sharing but rather on majorities of citizens electing their representatives. The cantons and entities, as well as ethnic vetoes and restrictions, will need to fade. The Americans and Europeans should welcome the prospect of a new civic constitution.
No one outside Bosnia and Herzegovina can reform its constitution. A popular movement is needed. The United States, along with the Europeans, needs to shield that popular movement from repression while starving the entities of funding and redirecting it to the central government and municipalities.
Redirecting Serbia
Everything I’ve suggested will be easier if Serbia helps. President Trump allowed President Vucic to tighten control of Serbian courts and news media, which often indulge in hate speech, and to promote pan-Serb ambitions destabilizing to Bosnia, Kosovo, and Montenegro. The Biden Administration will need to toughen up on Belgrade, together with Europe. If Vucic continues to prefer autocracy and alignment with Russia and China, the Europeans and Americans will need to await the day Serbia is committed to real democracy at home and better relations with its neighbors. Serbia’s citizens, more concerned about jobs than Kosovo or Bosnia, need to help. In the meanwhile, we may want to think about an interim arrangement, provided it gives Kosovo a seat at the UN. Getting a good deal requires readiness to reject a bad one.
Conclusion
President Biden will have bigger problems than the Balkans. But few regions promise better returns. Cooperating with Europeans, the US can save the sovereignty and territorial integrity of two potential allies—Kosovo and Bosnia—and help Serbia escape its legacy of autocracy and war. President Biden should support those prepared to make Europe whole and free and counter those who block progress.
PS: Here is a post-hearing interview I did for N1, the Balkans CNN. Patience, it’s in English.
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