Trying to mind read Biden in Tehran

Mohammad Lotfollahi of Iran’s Etemad Newspaper asked questions. I responded:

Q: The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear scientist, by Israel (according to the New York Times) has greatly changed the political equation and increased tensions. What do you think was the motive of the perpetrators of this assassination?

A: I imagine there are several motives, including setting back the Iranian nuclear program, but the timing seems related to the political situation in the US. The Israelis want to make it hard for President Biden to return to the JCPOA. Iranian retaliation against Israel or the United States would make that difficult.

Q: Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. He tried to reach a better agreement with maximum pressure and sanctions. Was Trump able to achieve his goals?

A: No, the maximum pressure campaign generated a maximum resistance response, with no visible progress in getting to a better agreement.

Q: With Joe Biden in office, will US policy continue to use sanctions against Iran, or will Washington pursue diplomacy and cooperation?

A: Washington will shift towards diplomacy, but not all the sanctions are nuclear-related. Some derive from support to terrorism and human rights abuses. I don’t expect to see all the sanctions lifted until there is a broader agreement than the JCPOA, and maybe not even then.

Q: The Economist says Joe Biden should drive a hard bargain with Iran. In your opinion, what policy should Biden have towards Iran?

A: I think the JCPOA had adequate restraints on the Iranian nuclear program for the time frame of its validity. The Americans will now want to extend that time frame and the physical scope of IAEA inspections as well as limit Iranian power projection in the region, including its missile program and support to proxies. I don’t know whether Iran will be prepared to discuss those issues or whether agreement on them is possible, but normalization of relations with Washington will require real progress on them.

Q: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told weekly Der Spiegel that it was in the interest of the US and Europeans to reach a broader agreement with Tehran. Does it make sense to look for a bigger deal when you can’t have a small successful deal?

A: Maybe not, but it is worth a try. The JCPOA was successful so long as the Americans remained committed to it.

Q: A win-win agreement between Iran and the United States should have what characteristics? What role can Europe play in signing this agreement

A: Win-win would mean increased security for the US, Israel, the Arab states of the Gulf, and for Iran. I can picture that, though we are still far from it.

Q: Netanyahu is a staunch opponent of the nuclear deal. He supports a military strike on Iran. He carried out several sabotage operations against Iran during the Trump era. Under Biden, will the US president follow in Obama’s footsteps or prefer to work with Netanyahu?

A: I don’t know precisely what Biden will do. He will certainly be committed to Israel’s security, but he will at the same time try to revive the JCPOA and to restrain Israeli operations in hope of getting Iran to restrain its nuclear program and regional power projection.

Q: “Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will reassess our relationship with the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil,” Biden said in October. What policy will the Biden government have in the Middle East? Do human rights really influence the policies of the future US government?

A: Yes, I think human rights will play a stronger role in the Biden Administration than they have in the Trump Administration, including human rights in Iran as well as in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. There will be no sword dancing in Riyadh. But there are also limits to what can be achieved in societies governed by autocratic regimes. I would guess Biden will initially focus on Saudi women imprisoned for driving and other protests in the Kingdom and Americans imprisoned in the Islamic Republic.