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Peace Picks | December 21 – December 25, 2020

Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.

1. The Islamic Defenders Front and Political Polarization in Indonesia | December 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:015 PM ET | Yusof Ishak Institute | Register Here

Amid growing religious polarization since 2019, the return from self-exile of Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) leader Rizieq Shihab to Indonesia in November has revitalized the opposition movement against President Joko Widodo. Islamic populism is set to be a major force at the 2024 presidential election. In the near term, however, Rizieq Shihab’s fate is uncertain as the government seeks to curtail his activities and prevent mass mobilizations in the capital. On December 7 a clash between security services and a convoy in which Rizieq was travelling left six of his followers dead. In this webinar, Dr Quinton Temby analyses these recent developments, drawing on social media data to illustrate how Rizieq’s return has played into online polarization between government and opposition activists. With physical mobilization restricted due to the pandemic, and the details of the recent clash disputed, Twitter has been an arena for hashtag battles between different actors seeking to control the narrative. Dr Temby concludes by reflecting on the prospects for Islamic populism in Indonesia and why social media is likely to be critical to any populist success.

Speakers

Dr Quinton Temby: Visiting Fellow, Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. 

2. Political Fallout: Nuclear Weapons Testing and the Making of a Global Environmental Crisis | December 21, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here

The Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 is typically viewed as marking a first step toward nuclear arms control. But Toshihiro Higuchi argues that it was also one of the first international agreements that addressed a truly global, human-induced environmental problem. By tracing a worldwide struggle to determine the biological effects, social acceptability, and policy implications of radioactive fallout, Higuchi reexamines the Cold War in the context of the Anthropocene – an era in which humans are confronting environmental changes of their own making.

Speakers

Toshihiro Higuchi: Assistant Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

Christian F. Ostermann, moderator: Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation Project; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center

Eric Arnesen, moderator: Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University. Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association.

3. Cyber War and Cyber Peace: Past and Future Cyber Clashes in the Middle East | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here

Although the cyber domain is an emerging field of conflict, it is no longer a new frontier – many battles in cyberspace have been fought and it is imperative they be understood to begin imagining how the future of warfare online may look.

As the United States, the Middle East, and policy community globally begin to consider how a Biden administration will approach conflict and cyber conflict in the region, this panel is an opportunity to study the history of cyber warfare in the Middle East as context for the policy challenges that will arise in the next four years. This panel is sponsored by SentinelOne, a cybersecurity solution encompassing AI-powered prevention, detection, response and hunting in a single autonomous platform.

Speakers

Selena Larson: Senior cyber threat analyst, Dragos, Inc.

James Shires: Assistant professor, Institute for Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University

Thom Langford, moderator: Security advocate, SentinelOne 

Additional speakers TBD

4. Putin’s playbook: Lessons from the operation to kill Alexei Navalny | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here

Bellingcat, CNN, the Insider, and der Spiegel have produced an explosive investigative report on the elaborate FSB efforts to poison Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent. Navalny survived and has resumed his role as an active player, amplifying the identities of the team that allegedly worked to kill him and laying responsibility for the operation at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s feet—all while promising to return to Russia. All of this raises the question: Why does the Kremlin regard Navalny as so large a threat, and when was the line crossed to start plotting his death? What does a recovered and newly active Navalny mean for Russia’s politics, and how will Russia’s relationship change with key states such as Germany, where Navalny has been recuperating? Russia has long struggled to see a viable alternative to Vladimir Putin—is Navalny that alternative?

Speakers

Christo Grozev: Lead Russia Investigator, Bellingcat 

Irina Borogan: investigative journalist and Deputy Editor, Agentura.ru 

John Sipher: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center; CEO & Co-Founder, Spycraft Entertainment 

Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: director of the Eurasia Center