Month: December 2020
I don’t like Christmas, but I still enjoy it
My wife said I should write this post. I have my doubts. It is sure to offend.
I don’t like Christmas. It’s not just the commercialization, the artificial cheeriness, the tinkly upbeat and lethargic downbeat tunes, the destruction of pine trees or their synthetic replacements, and the silliness of telling children that elves make their toys and a mythological Santa Claus delivers them. Those would all be good reasons to have doubts.
Nor do I mind the finer things associated with the holiday. Dinner with family, listening to Handel’s Messiah as well as Amahl and the Night Visitors, the many beautiful paintings of the Nativity, the inspiration to do good, and the celebration of human fellowship. These are all welcome, any day of the year.
What I object to is the specifically Christian aspect of Christmas. The story itself is incredible. A virgin gave birth to the son of God? That son of God was destined to die for human sins on the cross? He will return some day as the Messiah to initiate a last judgment? I suppose it is logical that people who believe such things might also invent something as unbelievable as Santa Claus and his elves, but that doesn’t make it more appealing.
You may write all this off to my being Jewish, or if you like to my being a skeptic. To me, the Messiah is as fantastical as Santa Claus. Consider what we know:
- Our earth is just one of millions of planets throughout the universe. It is unlikely that its living inhabitants are unique. A few billion years and millions of planets will have generated the physical and chemical conditions for life elsewhere, as they did here.
- There is no good reason for God to have chosen this particular planet to impregnate the virgin with his son. I know he can do whatever he likes, but is He just capricious? Or does He do this on every planet? Or does our God do it here and other gods do what they want on other planets?
There is a good reason why the Pope burned Giordano Bruno at the stake in Campo de’ Fiori in 1600 for preaching a multiplicity of worlds. That fact is incompatible with traditional Christian beliefs. I can imagine the hostility and violence with which our first visitors from outer space will be greeted. I can only hope they are as wise and powerful as those in “The Day the Earth Stood Still.” The 1951 version of course–one of the first films I remember.
Still, I do enjoy Christmas. It has many virtues not found in shopping malls and churches: on the day itself, less traffic, fewer emails, more quiet, an opportunity for contemplation, the invitation to be charitable, a feeling of good will towards others, and the warmth of family and friends. Whatever God or gods there may be, they have a lot of planets to play with. If there is to be any good in the world, humans will have to make it happen.
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Lawless rogue in hissy fit undermines security and law
The “lawless rogue” characterization I’ve lifted from Barry MacCaffrey, a retired American four-star who isn’t mincing words. They are appropriate for a president who has been issuing pardons outside the usual vetting process mostly for people who in no way merit them, including mass murderers and corrupt former members of Congress. Not to mention Jared Kushner’s father, whose hiring of a prostitute to embarrass his brother-in-law and prevent his sister from testifying against him is a crime for the morally depraved record books.
But it’s the hissy fit part that counts for most Americans. Trump has vetoed the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which has for 58 years expressed the Congress’ views on current and future defense issues. The President’s motives are unclear: he has variously cited its elimination of Confederate names from military bases, what he alleges is its softness on China (it isn’t), and its failure to deprive social media companies of legal protection from lawsuits, a completely unrelated issue arising from the warnings Twitter posts on his lies. If the protection were abolished, Twitter would be likely to banish Trump altogether, so how this would help the President isn’t clear. Among many other things, the veto will delay combat pay for some American troops serving abroad. Add that to the President’s failure so far to respond appropriately to Russia’s cyber hack of government and company computer networks.
Trump is also refusing to sign the latest corona virus relief legislation. It is not clear whether he will veto it, but if he does many tens of millions of Americans will see delays in payments already approved by Congress and millions more will be subject to eviction from their homes. The President objects to the $900 billion bill because he wants higher relief payments, but he failed to instruct his negotiators accordingly during the 7 months or so it took to reach agreement. He also objects to some annual appropriations attached to the legislation, including items proposed in his own budget message to Congress. The Democrats, who from the first wanted higher payments, offered to approve the President’s preference by unanimous consent (the only way to amend a bill already approved by both houses), but Republicans objected.
Trump has now retired to Mar-a-Lago to play golf and presumably issue more pardons focused mainly on supporters, potential supporters, and family members. The most disgraceful so far are the pardons issued to four Blackwater security guards who gunned down unarmed civilians in Iraq. I suppose more of that variety are possible, but more likely he will now concentrate clemency on his children, their spouses, and himself.
Whether accepting pardons legally implies guilt is still debated, despite a 1915 Supreme Court decision, but the implication is strong. Blanket pardons from possible future prosecution, like the one President Ford gave resigned President Nixon, leave uncertain precisely what the recipient was guilty of and essentially put individuals above the law (at least at the Federal level–they could still be prosecuted at the state level). It is inconceivable to me that the courts will uphold a pardon of that sort given by Trump to Trump. That would constitute the definition of corruption: abuse of public office for private gain.
One thing is clear: such vague pardons undermine the rule of law, just as veto of the defense authorization undermines national security and failure to sign the corona virus bill will undermine public order by making desperate people even more desperate. Trump is trying to sink the ship of state before his successor can take over. He won’t succeed, but he is doing a lot of damage, not least to the Republicans who are mostly still trying to stay loyal as he twists and turns in ever more outrageous directions. Bah, humbug, is Trump’s Christmas greeting, to them and to the rest of the country.
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Stevenson’s army, December 24
The president has vetoed the NDAA [message here]; the House will try to override on Monday.
RollCall reports that the first State Dept authorization bill in two decades was dropped from inclusion in the NDAA because of WH demands from Ivanka Trump.
The omnibus appropriations and covid relief bill faces an uncertain future. If sent to WH today, Congress could avoid a pocket veto with override votes by the morning of Jan 3.Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi promises a unanimous consent motion today to have $2000 stimulus checks, as requested by Trump. GOP leader McCarthy may offer his own UC to strip the foreign aid money from the bill.
In other news, the administration considers closing the Baghdad embassy after the recent attacks from uncertain sources.
Administration wants $500 million arms sale to Saudis.
How to respond to Russian cyber hack. Fred Kaplan has measured response.
Just Security writer calls for legal agreements drawing the line between espionage and attacks.
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Merry Christmas miscreants! And to all a fake handout!
President Trump yesterday pardoned 15 miscreants, none of whom seem to have expressed remorse outside a courtroom, made restitution, or devoted themselves to good works. They include mass murderers, fraudsters, liars, drug traffickers, and thieves. There is nothing wrong with pardons for the deserving, but this group wouldn’t even pass muster to be considered for pardons in the usual Justice Department process. Another five people had their sentences commuted.
The President also let it be known that he favors bigger relief payments in the legislation Congress has just passed, after more than 7 months of negotiations and Republican stalling. He would like credit for advocating more than triple what is being provided, but he has intervened too late to make it happen except by a procedure known as unanimous consent. The Democrats will likely propose to use that, but at least some Republicans will object. The President’s handout proposal is a fake.
Pardons are a double-edged sword, since they make it impossible for those pardoned to refuse to testify in court proceedings on grounds of self-incrimination. Thus far, none of those pardoned would appear to be a good candidate for testifying against Trump in court. One who was, Roger Stone, got a commutation of his sentence, which doesn’t erase the conviction and enables him to “plead the fifth.”* Trump may pardon his lawyers, business associates, and family members, but only those he can rely on to lack evidence against him or he thinks are determined to defend him at all costs.
While Christmas has elicited unmerited pardons and a fake handout, the New Year will produce confirmation of the electoral outcome in Congress, where at least a few Republicans will object on January 6 to Joe Biden’s win. That will make for lots of political drama with no substantial effect while Trump’s diehards demonstrate in the streets of Washington and generate the kind of turmoil Trump predicted would happen under a Biden Administration. Trump is determined to leave office with his reputation for promoting violence and wrecking the American political system intact.
Biden is a far more credible and less volatile leader. He has already named a cabinet of worthies that is also more inclusive of minorities and women than any in the past. He will inherit a disastrous epidemic and a still far from fully recovered economy. Depending on the run-off election in Georgia January 5 his party may not control the Senate. But he is a man who respects the American political system, eschews violence, and will quietly but firmly try to restore confidence in America at home and abroad. That will be far better than the unproductive chaos of the last four years.
*PS: This changed a few hours after I posted–Trump pardoned Stone, who can therefore no longer avoid testifying based on self-incrimination in a Federal proceeding.
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Stevenson’s army, December 23
Today the president must veto the NDAA or it will become law without his signature. WIll he carry through on his threat? [He is supposed to fly to Florida at 4pm.]
Trump surprised his own staff by disparaging the omnibus bill and hinting at a veto, though his complaints were more about the foreign aid in the appropriations measures combined with covid relief. If he vetoes that, government will have to shut down next week.
Among his pardons, Trump included the 4 Blackwater contractors convicted of killing Iraqi civilians.
The Senate can’t organize itself and begin nomination hearings until the Georgia results are clear.
AP has numbers for the Trump legacy.
David Ignatius also believes that the Russia hack was espionage, not an act of war. Fred Kaplan has more background.
NYT says US Navy has a secret mission against Venezuela but off the coast of Africa.
Sweden considers joining NATO.
Trump wants to politicize 88% of OMB personnel.
FP details how China used stolen data to catch US spies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 22
In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.
Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.
Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.
Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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