Month: December 2020
A disgraceful president distracts, lies, and fails, as always
Just a short list of the things Donald Trump has threatened or rumint says he might do before leaving office:
- Declare martial law and use the military to rerun the election in states he lost by narrow margins.
- Appoint a special prosecutor to investigate election fraud who has failed to come up with a single instance.
- Attack Iran.
- Declare Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman immune from a lawsuit accusing him of targeting for assassination a former top intel officer who could disclose damaging secrets about MBS’ ascent to power.
- Pardon himself, family members, and cronies.
- Veto the annual National Defense Authorization Act to prevent military bases from removing their Confederate names.
- Open more Arctic protected areas to oil and gas drilling.
- Encourage Republicans in the House and Senate to object to the Electoral College votes by their states when Congress convenes to count the votes January 5.
All these things are in the wacko category. That they would be considered, or even rumored, is unprecedented.
All this is intended mainly to keep the media spotlight on the President, who resents any attention to others even in his own administration, never mind to President-elect Biden. He may do none of the above, or do milder versions. He may just be testing how much he can get away with. Or he may be imitating a good magician, who attracts your attention to one thing while he does something else. Trump’s failure to respond appropriately to the Russian intelligence cyberhack and his funneling of political donations into a fund that can be used for almost any purpose would be attracting far more attention without the spotlight on 1-7.
If there is something Trump is good at, it’s flim flam. Infrastructure week never came. He never published his tax returns, documented that Melania didn’t work in the US illegally, or proposed a health care plan. The virus never disappeared. Kim Jung-un never gave up his nuclear weapons. Iran never came back to the negotiating table. Nicolas Maduro never left the presidency of Venezuela. The forever wars are still ongoing. US troops are still deployed, in ever larger numbers, in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Foreigners long ago figured Trump out. American international prestige hasn’t been lower since the end of the Vietnam war. Most Americans also figured him out. He lost by 7 million popular votes. But a shift of just 40,000 votes in the closest states would have tipped the Electoral College and handed a second term to a president who had presided over a failed response to the Covid-19 pandemic, an economy not much more than halfway recovered from the sharpest decline since the Great Depression, and profound social cleavages aggravated by presidential statements leading to disorder in major cities.
Trump’s base and 90% of the Republicans in Congress still haven’t wavered. Two-thirds of the base thinks the election was lost due to fraud, no evidence of which has been found after 7 weeks of trying and the loss of more than 50 court cases alleging malfeasance. Meanwhile, Trump is exploiting distraction by executing more Federal prisoners, turning back more immigrants, installing more Trumpians in government jobs, and reversing more environmental regulations.
I suppose the air may go out of the Trump balloon eventually. Will the Republicans really stick with him if after leaving office he is convicted of tax fraud or if his real estate enterprise is shown to be involved in laundering Russian crime money? I suppose so, because they already know the allegations are likely more true than false.
Inauguration day is only a month off. But we can expect Trump to distract, lie, and fail every single day, as always.
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Stevenson’s army, December 21
With corrections to links:
– Former SecDef Bob Gates supports Biden priorities and adds details.
– GOP Congressman opposes waiver for Austin.
– Former HPSCI chairman calling Russian hack espionage urges proportionate response.
– Law prof assesses NSA/CyberCommand split. NYT has more reactions.
– NYT reports neo-Nazis infiltrate German police.
– FP sees problems from currency manipulation decision.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | December 21 – December 25, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. The Islamic Defenders Front and Political Polarization in Indonesia | December 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:015 PM ET | Yusof Ishak Institute | Register Here
Amid growing religious polarization since 2019, the return from self-exile of Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) leader Rizieq Shihab to Indonesia in November has revitalized the opposition movement against President Joko Widodo. Islamic populism is set to be a major force at the 2024 presidential election. In the near term, however, Rizieq Shihab’s fate is uncertain as the government seeks to curtail his activities and prevent mass mobilizations in the capital. On December 7 a clash between security services and a convoy in which Rizieq was travelling left six of his followers dead. In this webinar, Dr Quinton Temby analyses these recent developments, drawing on social media data to illustrate how Rizieq’s return has played into online polarization between government and opposition activists. With physical mobilization restricted due to the pandemic, and the details of the recent clash disputed, Twitter has been an arena for hashtag battles between different actors seeking to control the narrative. Dr Temby concludes by reflecting on the prospects for Islamic populism in Indonesia and why social media is likely to be critical to any populist success.
Speakers
Dr Quinton Temby: Visiting Fellow, Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
2. Political Fallout: Nuclear Weapons Testing and the Making of a Global Environmental Crisis | December 21, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 is typically viewed as marking a first step toward nuclear arms control. But Toshihiro Higuchi argues that it was also one of the first international agreements that addressed a truly global, human-induced environmental problem. By tracing a worldwide struggle to determine the biological effects, social acceptability, and policy implications of radioactive fallout, Higuchi reexamines the Cold War in the context of the Anthropocene – an era in which humans are confronting environmental changes of their own making.
Speakers
Toshihiro Higuchi: Assistant Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Christian F. Ostermann, moderator: Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation Project; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen, moderator: Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University. Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association.
3. Cyber War and Cyber Peace: Past and Future Cyber Clashes in the Middle East | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Although the cyber domain is an emerging field of conflict, it is no longer a new frontier – many battles in cyberspace have been fought and it is imperative they be understood to begin imagining how the future of warfare online may look.
As the United States, the Middle East, and policy community globally begin to consider how a Biden administration will approach conflict and cyber conflict in the region, this panel is an opportunity to study the history of cyber warfare in the Middle East as context for the policy challenges that will arise in the next four years. This panel is sponsored by SentinelOne, a cybersecurity solution encompassing AI-powered prevention, detection, response and hunting in a single autonomous platform.
Speakers
Selena Larson: Senior cyber threat analyst, Dragos, Inc.
James Shires: Assistant professor, Institute for Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Thom Langford, moderator: Security advocate, SentinelOne
Additional speakers TBD
4. Putin’s playbook: Lessons from the operation to kill Alexei Navalny | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Bellingcat, CNN, the Insider, and der Spiegel have produced an explosive investigative report on the elaborate FSB efforts to poison Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent. Navalny survived and has resumed his role as an active player, amplifying the identities of the team that allegedly worked to kill him and laying responsibility for the operation at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s feet—all while promising to return to Russia. All of this raises the question: Why does the Kremlin regard Navalny as so large a threat, and when was the line crossed to start plotting his death? What does a recovered and newly active Navalny mean for Russia’s politics, and how will Russia’s relationship change with key states such as Germany, where Navalny has been recuperating? Russia has long struggled to see a viable alternative to Vladimir Putin—is Navalny that alternative?
Speakers
Christo Grozev: Lead Russia Investigator, Bellingcat
Irina Borogan: investigative journalist and Deputy Editor, Agentura.ru
John Sipher: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center; CEO & Co-Founder, Spycraft Entertainment
Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: director of the Eurasia Center
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Stevenson’s army, December 20
WaPo has a long review of the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic.
What jumps out at me is how amateurish and crony-coddling Kushner’s efforts were and how Scott Atlas dominated and derailed the Task Force.
NYT has leaked Chinese emails [reprinted in Chinese with English translations] showing efforts to censor news about the coronavirus.
Trump disputes Pompeo on Russian role in cyber hacks.
WSJ says administration wants to split NSA and Cyber Command
RollCall analysts says GOP has moved farther right in recent decades than Democrats moved left.
Politico asks, Is Trump cracking?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Biden needs to deter Putin, who will miss Trump
Here is the President’s first reaction to a massive cyberattack on the US government and companies:
Virtually everything in these two tweets is a lie, though I suppose someone has tried to brief him. The news media has been reporting mostly expert and company statements on the “Cyber Hack,” not inventing its own narrative. Few if any of the “lamestream” media have compelling reasons to protect China, whose malfeasance they report daily. Trump’s own Secretary of State has said it was Russia that launched the attack. Everything is not well under control, as it will take months to root out the malware. There no sign of a “hit” on our voting machines, he did not win the election, and he is by far the biggest embarrassment the country has ever suffered.
Why? is the constant question when it comes to Trump’s efforts to protect Russia. Addicted to accusing others of doing what he himself does, he gives a hint in accusing the lamestream media of financial motives. Trump’s real estate, heavily indebted and on the rocks due to the epidemic, is going to need a lot of money to survive after he leaves office. His licensing business has dried up, due to his dreadful performance as president. Russian President Putin and his friends have laundered their money through Trump’s enterprises in the past. He hopes they will continue to do so, and also allow him the property in Moscow that he has long coveted.
Trump’s weakness on Russia has damaged US national security to the point that President-elect Biden faces a serious problem: should he retaliate, or should he absorb the blow and clean up the mess without entering what could be a serious escalation of conflict with Moscow? He will certainly be bolder than Trump in calling out the Russians, but that is not retaliation. Sanctions, cyberattacks, military pressure, making Putin’s corrupt behavior public–there are lots of options for retaliation, but before doing it Biden will want to be sure that ultimately the US can do more harm to the Russians than they can do to us. If you retaliate, you want to be sure you have escalatory dominance.
There is a big unknown in this quandary. Have we already done to the Russians what they have done to us? Are they retaliating, not initiating a conflict? I might hope that is the case, but if so we are not likely to hear about it. Biden might decide not to escalate, in part to protect our own still secret capability.
There is another big unknown: how much has this cyberattack really helped Moscow? The targets appear to be unclassified government systems and commercial networks. What value can the Russians extract from what they have obtained, and what capability do they have to process it all? The sheer volume of material the Russians have stolen could inhibit effective use of it.
It is also possible that, despite US denials, the Russians have infiltrated classified government systems. That would be a disaster. All the most precious military, intelligence, and diplomatic secrets could be at risk.
But don’t expect the current President of the United States to level with the American people about what has happened. Already in his first remarks on the subject he is trying to obfuscate and coverup. No doubt now he’ll try to get back to thinking about how he can protect himself, his family, and his associates from prosecution once he leaves office. Putin is going to miss Trump. Re-establishment of deterrence will be left to Biden, on top of the many other unsolved problems the disastrous Trump Administration will leave behind.
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Stevenson’s army, December 19
Atlantic Council has a China strategy.
CNAS has ideas for economic statecraft.
WSJ laments loss of social trust among Americans.
Stimson Center says DPRK may be building nuclear components.
WSJ says its economy is near collapse.
Pompeo openly blames Russia for cyber attacks [which still seem to me to be espionage rather than “act of war.”]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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