Month: December 2020
Some answers on the Balkans, and other things
I did this interview with Janusz Bugajski on November 5, but if I understand correctly it was broadcast in Kosovo on RTK recently. So it’s a bit dated (but not wrong) on US election issues, but still okay on Balkan issues:
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Genuine remorse would help, but is not in sight
Caveat emptor: I am not a lawyer.
President Trump is spending quality time in his last days in office considering pardons. He has already pardoned more than two dozen people, including war criminals, an abusive sheriff, a leaker of classified information, several political cronies, an extortionist, his own first National Security Adviser, and a few worthies to deflect criticism: suffragist Susan B. Anthony and pugilist Jack Johnson among them. Trump has also commuted 16 sentences, most notably that of his mendacious cheer leader Roger Stone for his efforts to coverup for the President in the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election.
The difference between a pardon and commutation is important. A pardon implies guilt that is wiped away. Someone pardoned cannot refuse to testify based on an allegation of self-incrimination (“plead the 5th” in American parlance). Commutation annuls a sentence, not the guilt, so Roger Stone will still be able to plead the 5th in connection with his actions during the Russia investigation. That’s clearly what Trump wanted.
We know a pardon can be non-specific to a particular crime and that a president can be pardoned, because both were done by Gerald Ford in his pardon of President Nixon. What we don’t know is whether a president can pardon himself. While the pardon power is not limited in the Constitution, a self-pardon would amount to an official act undertaken for private gain. In my book that is corruption, but who knows what a court would decide.
Even the fact that Trump is considering pardoning himself, as well as his friends and family members, is unprecedented and revealing. It implies he knows perfectly well that he has committed crimes, both before taking office and during his presidency. Certainly there is an ample docket of potential accusations. President-elect Biden has made it clear he is not interested in pursuing prosecution, but he also intends to delegate such decisions to the Justice Department and US Attorneys. It would be astounding if no one at Justice or among the US Attorneys had the evidence needed to convict and Trump knows it.
Even if he pardons himself, Trump could still face charges in state courts, especially New York’s. There the main issues are likely to be financial. Trump notoriously adjusted the valuations of his properties to suit his personal interests, not the legal requirements. Again it would be astonishing if no prosecutor in New York State had the goods on him.
The wisdom of pursuing prosecution of a former president is another issue. It is understandable that Biden won’t want to spend his presidency answering questions about Trump’s malfeasances and legal troubles. But at the same time there is a need for accountability. If no one is above the law, Trump should not be above the law. A conviction or two might go a long way to reducing him to political irrelevancy, which in my view would serve the interests of the country at this juncture.
But more than prosecution and conviction, what is needed is for Republicans to acknowledge that Trump took them and their party in a direction they should not have gone. His racist populism, fiscal profligacy, affection for autocrats, disdain for allies, and bad judgment in failing to respond to Covid-19 are the real issues. Much as I would like to see him pay his fair share of taxes, only his political party and voters can do what is really needed: return to a political discourse based on respect, facts, and the compromises required to serve American citizens well.
The question then comes down to this: what will convince the leadership of the Republican party and Trump’s base to abandon him? Do they need to see him humiliated in court? Or will they reconsider their direction based on the election results? The latter certainly hasn’t happened yet. The strong showing in the House elections makes it unlikely. I can hope the Senate runoff in Georgia January 5 will be the right occasion for an electoral defeat that leads to a re-examination, but there is no sign of it in the way the Republican candidates are running there.
Remorse is what is needed. It is nowhere to be seen.
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Stevenson’s army, December 18
I have long been concerned that the US, especially the military, have given priority to cyber offense rather than defense in spending, planning, and thinking. Now we have the massive Russian hack of the US government which looks to me like espionage rather than “war.” [Maybe we need some secret understandings on this. In the analog era, it was OK for countries to steal and bribe to get secrets, but not to kill. And while cyber espionage can give an adversary potential advantages in combat, retaliation should not be deadly.] But the political rhetoric is close to “act of war,” when we should take it as a wake up call to be better at defense and resilience.
NDAA imperiled. It looks as if Trump will wait until Dec 23 to veto the NDAA, forcing Congress to reconvene before noon on Jan. 3 for override votes. House votes first. If it fails, the 59 year record of NDAAs will fall. RollCall has more details.
The administration released a “tri-maritime strategy” paper but can’t explain it.
Interagency fight over order blocking US investments in Chinese firms with military links.
Just over 155 million people voted for the presidential candidates in November. If just 32,000 of them had voted for GOP congressional candidates, the Republicans would have won control of the House.
WaPo has a Biden appointment tracker.
Climate change boosts Russian agriculture.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 17
George Will lists Congress’ many failures at passing required legislation.
NYT notes US failure to catch Russian hacking for months.
Failed attack, renewed threats from al-Shabab
Currency manipulation — Switzerland & Vietnam.
FP says Gen. Austin is close to Biden on policy grounds.
Report on Congress and social media.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Russia disrespects sovereignty and the Dayton accords
I did an interview yesterday with Aldin Tiro, who published it today at hayat.ba:
Q: You probably heard that [Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov] met with Milorad Dodik last night in Republika Srpska, where the BiH [Bosnian] flag was not hoisted at all.
Lavrov also praised the RS National Assembly’s decision to be militarily neutral. At the meeting, the state of BiH was degraded and disrespect was expressed, and Dodik said at one point that Lavrov first came to RS last night and that he would come to BiH only [the next day]?
How to comment on such behavior of Russia, that is, Lavrov, who is an experienced politician?
A: Lavrov knows what he is doing: providing support to a secessionist who seeks to do Moscow’s bidding and prevent NATO membership.
Q: How do you view the facts that today Sefik Dzaferovic and Zeljko Komsic (the other two members of the Presidency of BiH) refused to meet with Lavrov?
A: I think they did the right thing. The Sarajevo state institutions need to be respected. Lavrov will be furious.
Q: Has Russia expressed disrespect for BiH? One could constantly hear Lavrov’s statement that Russia respects the territorial integrity of BiH and sends it to Dayton, and it is persistently repeated that it wants the High Representative to leave?
A: Duplicity is Lavrov’s middle name. You can’t respect the territorial integrity of BiH and visit Dodik first in a room without the Bosnian state flag. You can’t respect Dayton and want the High Representative responsible for the interpretation and implementation of Dayton to leave.
Q: How do you view Milorad Dodik’s behavior during these visits?
A: Dodik is Moscow’s puppet. No more, no less.
Q: Who will “profit” the most, that is, who is the manager here?
A: Lavrov is the manager, but no doubt Dodik is profiting.
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Stevenson’s army, December 16
Military families need food assistance.
Iraq’s economy is collapsing.
White House meddled in CDC.
Somalia breaks relations with Kenya.
John Bolton criticizes Trump action on Morocco.
A reporter tries to tell what will happen to nuclear “football” if Trump skips inauguration.
The hawkish FDD has its policy recommendations.
Analogy of the day: writers call for “Goldwater-Nichols for emerging technology.”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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