Month: December 2020
Trying to mind read Biden in Tehran
Mohammad Lotfollahi of Iran’s Etemad Newspaper asked questions. I responded:
Q: The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian nuclear scientist, by Israel (according to the New York Times) has greatly changed the political equation and increased tensions. What do you think was the motive of the perpetrators of this assassination?
A: I imagine there are several motives, including setting back the Iranian nuclear program, but the timing seems related to the political situation in the US. The Israelis want to make it hard for President Biden to return to the JCPOA. Iranian retaliation against Israel or the United States would make that difficult.
Q: Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. He tried to reach a better agreement with maximum pressure and sanctions. Was Trump able to achieve his goals?
A: No, the maximum pressure campaign generated a maximum resistance response, with no visible progress in getting to a better agreement.
Q: With Joe Biden in office, will US policy continue to use sanctions against Iran, or will Washington pursue diplomacy and cooperation?
A: Washington will shift towards diplomacy, but not all the sanctions are nuclear-related. Some derive from support to terrorism and human rights abuses. I don’t expect to see all the sanctions lifted until there is a broader agreement than the JCPOA, and maybe not even then.
Q: The Economist says Joe Biden should drive a hard bargain with Iran. In your opinion, what policy should Biden have towards Iran?
A: I think the JCPOA had adequate restraints on the Iranian nuclear program for the time frame of its validity. The Americans will now want to extend that time frame and the physical scope of IAEA inspections as well as limit Iranian power projection in the region, including its missile program and support to proxies. I don’t know whether Iran will be prepared to discuss those issues or whether agreement on them is possible, but normalization of relations with Washington will require real progress on them.
Q: German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told weekly Der Spiegel that it was in the interest of the US and Europeans to reach a broader agreement with Tehran. Does it make sense to look for a bigger deal when you can’t have a small successful deal?
A: Maybe not, but it is worth a try. The JCPOA was successful so long as the Americans remained committed to it.
Q: A win-win agreement between Iran and the United States should have what characteristics? What role can Europe play in signing this agreement
A: Win-win would mean increased security for the US, Israel, the Arab states of the Gulf, and for Iran. I can picture that, though we are still far from it.
Q: Netanyahu is a staunch opponent of the nuclear deal. He supports a military strike on Iran. He carried out several sabotage operations against Iran during the Trump era. Under Biden, will the US president follow in Obama’s footsteps or prefer to work with Netanyahu?
A: I don’t know precisely what Biden will do. He will certainly be committed to Israel’s security, but he will at the same time try to revive the JCPOA and to restrain Israeli operations in hope of getting Iran to restrain its nuclear program and regional power projection.
Q: “Under a Biden-Harris administration, we will reassess our relationship with the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia], end US support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil,” Biden said in October. What policy will the Biden government have in the Middle East? Do human rights really influence the policies of the future US government?
A: Yes, I think human rights will play a stronger role in the Biden Administration than they have in the Trump Administration, including human rights in Iran as well as in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. There will be no sword dancing in Riyadh. But there are also limits to what can be achieved in societies governed by autocratic regimes. I would guess Biden will initially focus on Saudi women imprisoned for driving and other protests in the Kingdom and Americans imprisoned in the Islamic Republic.
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Stevenson’s army, December 11
US changed policy on Morocco in order to get Israeli-Morocco agreement, but angering Sen. Inhofe. More background from NYT.
Senate failed to block UAE arms sale.
Sen. Paul delays NDAA because of Afghanistan; government shutdown threatened.
US helps Taliban by attacking ISIS.
At last, sanctions against Turkey.
Good reads from CNAS: on revising war powers; and on revising export controls.
Not sure of their criteria, but Hill has list of top lobbyists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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OK, not everyone has lost the right stuff
One of my favorite readers of peacefare has objected to my post earlier this week on America losing the right stuff. I have to admit he had a point: it’s not all gone. There are lots of people–health care workers, grocery store employees, troops and commanders, diplomats, teachers, election workers, and many others–who are continuing to do their duty with humble commitment during the Covid-19 epidemic. My hat is off to them.
But unfortunately that spirit has declined markedly in public life. The latest evidence is the Texas-initiated lawsuit aiming to overturn the presidential election results in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. The election procedures in those states have already been thoroughly litigated in both state and Federal courts. Virtually none have been found problematic. But Texas, joined by 17 other Trump-supporting state attorneys general and the Federal government, is claiming to know better. Mind: they are not challenging results in those same four states that delivered Republicans to office, or Trump victories in other states that used the same procedures as the four. Only the Biden victory.
This is disgraceful. It won’t go anywhere in court, but that is not its purpose. What Trump and his minions are doing is exerting a tight grip on the Republican party and raising money for his slush PAC. They are ignoring their duty to accept the election results and humbly return to the hard work of governing. Better they figure to dip into state coffers to challenge election results in other states where they have no standing, never mind the objections of at least some Republican officials in the states in question.
I can hope that this behavior will be punished at the polls, but I doubt it. There is a slice of white America that has decided its political dominance is threatened. Given the demographic changes in progress, their only hope for remaining in power is to prevent black and brown people from voting or to ensure that their votes are not counted. That has been the consistent theme of the Trump challenge to the November 3 election: fraud in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and other cities with large minority populations is the claim. The Republicans have produced no evidence at all to support the allegation, but something like three-quarters of Republicans believe it.
If the Republican party persists in this direction, it will abandon entirely its conservative vocation and remain the extremist white nationalist organization that Trump has conjured. There are few signs of resistance: Romney in the Senate has dissented, but virtually no other major serving Republican official at the national level has joined him. Certainly the incoherent mumbling from Senators Collins and Murkowski is not going to stem the extremist tide.
What happens in Georgia January 5 will shape much of the Republicans’ and America’s future. If, against the odds, the newly purple state sends two Democratic senators to Washington, the Republicans will be forced to reckon with the kind of strong presidency they enjoyed in 2017. They will also face the prospect of being permanently out of power, at least in the Senate. The Democrats will, I hope, admit both the District of Columbia (known then as the Douglas Commonwealth) and Puerto Rico as states, each with two senators (as well as one member of Congress for DC and five for Puerto Rico). DC gets three Electoral College votes already. Puerto Rico would get 7.
While the differences are not dramatic, they would likely be enough for at least some Republicans to realize that white nationalist extremism is not a winning ticket. They could drop the racist lawsuits and return to real conservatism, which on life style and even fiscal issues has real appeal among minorities. If the Republicans don’t move in that direction, they will increasingly represent less educated racists trying to hold on to their white privileges. That’s a losing proposition, but an appropriate one for people who have abandoned duty and humility.
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Stevenson’s army, December 10
– Defense One says Trump people at DOD are looking to cut support to CIA.
– WSJ says Japan is building missiles capable of hitting North Korea.
– NYT notes how CJCS ADM Mullen named several black officers to top positions, including Gen. Austin.
– Politico tells of personality clash in 1950s that Kerry appointment might repeat.
– GOP House members are trying to recruit Senators to challenge electoral votes for Biden. CRS paper [see p 6] tells how Congress counts the votes.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 9
Biden defends it.
Dean Cohen opposes it. As does Fred Kaplan.
Politico explains it. Austin also developed a close relationship with Biden’s late son, Beau, when he served on Austin’s staff in Iraq in 2008 and 2009, said one source close to the discussions, who asked not to be named to discuss private matters. Austin and the younger Biden attended Mass together, sitting side-by-side almost every Sunday, and they kept in touch after Beau returned from his deployment.
And Biden doesn’t want push-back from DOD.
My take: most Biden appointments reflect his preference for people he knows and is comfortable with. Austin also seem more likely to be compliant than someone who is independent-minded and has a separate base.
Here’s a 2 year old FP story telling how civilians were being sidelined in DOD.
Senate votes today on the NDAA conference report and on blocking the UAE arms sale. Gen. Mattis is lobbying on the issue.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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America has lost the right stuff
America has lost the right stuff. Chuck Yeager, a World War II ace who broke the sound barrier in his “Glamorous Glennis” X-1 in 1947, was a master pilot possessed of calm and humble commitment to duty and country. He died at 97 yesterday, having broken many more flying records:
His character seems almost foreign in today’s America. We have a president who can’t understand why people serve in the armed forces. We’ve got a party in Congress that won’t acknowledge that president’s loss in the election. We’ve got people who think wearing a mask to protect themselves and others from a deadly virus is an infringement on their political liberty. We’ve got police departments that kill with impunity. We’ve got more than 74 million people who voted for a president responsible for the deaths of more than 280,000 of their fellow citizens.
I don’t know how far the election of Joe Biden can go in curing these ailments. He is going to have his hands full first with Covid 19 and then the economy. He would have to be extraordinarily lucky to have the unequivocal support of the Congress. That will be decided January 5, when two Georgia Senate seats are decided in an unusual second-round election. Most states don’t do that, but Georgia does because it was thought an integrationist could squeak by in a multi-candidate first round but not in a two-candidate second round.
Today, all 50 states met the deadline for certification of election results, guaranteeing that they cannot be challenged in Congress after they are transmitted there when the Electoral College meets on December 14 in state capitals. In theory, that ensures the electoral vote outcome will be 306 to 232, precisely the same outcome as four years ago.
Trump has described that win in 2016 as a landslide. This time around he is refusing even to acknowledge that Joe Biden has won. I doubt Trump is deluding himself. He knows he has lost. He keeps up the charade of opposition to the outcome in order to maintain his dominance of the Republican party and to raise money from fools who believe his nonsense. He is even pretending that he might run in 2024, ignoring the facts of life in order to stifle the Republican competition. He is in poor physical condition already and will be plagued in the next few years by legal and financial troubles. While he might try to forecast the election lights to Don Jr. four years hence, the idea of his running is ludicrous.
Duty and country would require that Donald Trump fade quickly from the limelight and crawl into history as the worst president in a century, if not since the founding. But the man is neither calm nor humble. In an America where duty and country were important, he would never even have dared try to overturn the results of the election with phone calls to governors and state legislators. He never had the right stuff, and the country seems to have lost it.
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