Month: December 2020
My Balkans recommendations for President Biden
Here is my testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs from this morning:
Thank you, Mr. Chairman, not only for this opportunity to testify once again but also for your decades of commitment to Europe whole and free. But the job is not yet finished. Problems remain between Serbia and Kosovo as well as inside Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Serbia is also a factor.
The essential precondition for solving the remaining Balkan problems is American recommitment to the region, in tandem with European allies. Recent competition between the US and EU, which has demonstrated it cannot do the job on its own, hampered progress. As part of his global re-assertion of democratic values, President Biden should consult the Europeans and announce a joint vision for the Balkan region.
Completing Kosovo statehood
Independent Kosovo is still completing its statehood. Its security forces are progressing toward NATO. Other sovereign institutions are also gaining capability but lack universal recognition.
The Pristina/Belgrade dialogue the EU leads can help but needs more US engagement. The Americans should focus on implementation and reciprocity. The dialogue needs a monitoring mechanism, including for past agreements as well as commitments like Kosovo’s EU visa waiver. Reciprocity should include extension of the Special Chambers’ mandate to crimes committed in Serbia, including the post-war murder of three Americans.
The main US goal for the dialogue is mutual recognition and exchange of ambassadors. President Biden and Chancellor Merkel should make this goal explicit and press the non-recognizing EU members to declare they will recognize Kosovo no later than Serbia does. UN membership will require the Americans to convince Russia and China not to veto.
Post-Dayton Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are as fraught as Kosovo’s. The Dayton accords reached 25 years ago entailed territorial division and ethnic power-sharing, ending a terrible war. That formula no longer makes sense for the international community, which pays many of Bosnia’s bills, or for its citizens, who suffer dysfunctional governance.
Dayton today serves the interests of ethnic robber barons. One arms his statelet for secession while another eggs him on and the third complains. The US should press the Europeans to sanction those who advocate Republika Srpska independence and to strengthen and reposition their troops, visibly backed by the US, to the northeastern town of Brcko, to block secession. The US should seek to block Russian arming of entity police as well as Croatian and Serbian political interference.
Europe and the US want a post-Dayton Bosnia that can qualify for EU membership. That Bosnia will be based not on ethnic power-sharing but rather on majorities of citizens electing their representatives. The cantons and entities, as well as ethnic vetoes and restrictions, will need to fade. The Americans and Europeans should welcome the prospect of a new civic constitution.
No one outside Bosnia and Herzegovina can reform its constitution. A popular movement is needed. The United States, along with the Europeans, needs to shield that popular movement from repression while starving the entities of funding and redirecting it to the central government and municipalities.
Redirecting Serbia
Everything I’ve suggested will be easier if Serbia helps. President Trump allowed President Vucic to tighten control of Serbian courts and news media, which often indulge in hate speech, and to promote pan-Serb ambitions destabilizing to Bosnia, Kosovo, and Montenegro. The Biden Administration will need to toughen up on Belgrade, together with Europe. If Vucic continues to prefer autocracy and alignment with Russia and China, the Europeans and Americans will need to await the day Serbia is committed to real democracy at home and better relations with its neighbors. Serbia’s citizens, more concerned about jobs than Kosovo or Bosnia, need to help. In the meanwhile, we may want to think about an interim arrangement, provided it gives Kosovo a seat at the UN. Getting a good deal requires readiness to reject a bad one.
Conclusion
President Biden will have bigger problems than the Balkans. But few regions promise better returns. Cooperating with Europeans, the US can save the sovereignty and territorial integrity of two potential allies—Kosovo and Bosnia—and help Serbia escape its legacy of autocracy and war. President Biden should support those prepared to make Europe whole and free and counter those who block progress.
PS: Here is a post-hearing interview I did for N1, the Balkans CNN. Patience, it’s in English.
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Stevenson’s army, December 7
Politco warns that John Kerry’s ill-defined role as climate czar and NSC member is likely to lead to clashes over personalities and policies. That’s always the case with positions not written into law with prescribed authorities.
FP says incoming NSA Jake Sullivan was part of a study group that interviewed ordinary Americans to develop ideas for foreign policy.
The resulting Carnegie Foundation report urges policies linking foreign policies to domestic ones.
Congress has a busy week. Past experience suggests that the “finish up and go home” spirit will lead to the necessary compromises, thought the budget may need a one-week extension of the CR.
Resign or be fired? AG Barr will leave early.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | December 7 – December 11, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Insecurity in Northeast Nigeria and Beyond | December 7, 2020 | 2:00 – 3:30 PM ET | Brookings Institute | Register Here
Nigeria, one of Africa’s largest economies, is also the lynchpin of security in western Africa. Yet for over a decade, it has struggled to address devastating jihadi insurgencies and terrorism by Boko Haram and the Islamic State. Victory against both groups remains elusive and security in northeastern Nigeria has significantly deteriorated since 2017. Insecurity has also spread to northwestern Nigeria with the farmers-herders’ conflict, which is compounded by the intensifying effects of global warming and remains dormant at best. Proliferating across the country, militia groups add another complex security challenge. Amidst these widespread challenges, Nigerians are demanding meaningful human security and accountability from the often-brutal military and law enforcement forces, such as the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS). Layered over these issues, the coronavirus pandemic has devastated local economies, exacerbating already high levels of poverty and inequality and fractious political processes.
On December 7, the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and the Africa Security Initiative at Brookings will hold a panel discussion to explore these complex and overlapping issues. After their remarks, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Ambassador John Campbell: Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, and former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria – The Council on Foreign Relations
Takwa Z. Suifon: Peace and Development Advisor to the United Nations Resident Coordinator – United Nations Country Team in Nigeria
Sophia Comfort Michael: Manager – Norwegian Refugee Council in Nigeria
Siobhan O’Neil: Project Director of the Managing Exits from Armed Conflict Project – Centre for Policy Research, United Nations University
Vanda Felbab-Brown, moderator: Director – Initiative on Nonstate Armed ActorsCo-Director – Africa Security InitiativeSenior Fellow – Foreign Policy, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology
2. Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next | December 7, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:30 AM; 4:00 – 5:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
For the last eight years, the annual PeaceCon conference has offered a dynamic platform for frontline peacebuilders, policymakers, philanthropists, and private sector and civil society leaders working at the nexus of peacebuilding, security, and development to engage in meaningful dialogue and develop substantive plans for action. This year’s conference—with the theme “Pandemics, Peace, and Justice: Shaping What Comes Next”—will explore the relationship between justice and peacebuilding in the context of COVID-19 and the worldwide reckoning over systemic injustice and racism.
With the move to an entirely virtual format, PeaceCon 2020 aims to attract an even more diverse set of voices, expertise, and ideas from across the world. Sessions will go beyond exploring the problems and will challenge participants to put forward differing points of view and distill learning outcomes into pragmatic solutions.
Join USIP, in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding, as we kickstart PeaceCon 2020 with a high-level keynote and panel discussion on December 7, 2020. The discussion will address the relationship between COVID-19, conflict, and fragility, and consider strategies for the international community to address the peace and security implications of the pandemic. Following a series of breakout sessions hosted by the Alliance for Peacebuilding, participants will re-join USIP for a fireside chat with Darren Walker, the president of the Ford Foundation.
Agenda
9:00am – 10:30am: AfP-USIP Plenary Session
Welcome Remarks
Lise Grande: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Uzra Zeya: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Julia Roig: Chair, Board of Directors, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Keynote Address
Senator Chris Coons (D-DE): U.S. Senator from Delaware
High Level Panel: COVID and Fragility: Risks and Recovery
Paige Alexander: CEO, The Carter Center
David Beasley: Executive Director, World Food Programme
Tjada D’Oyen McKenna: CEO, Mercy Corps
Ambassador Mark Green: Executive Director, McCain Institute
Dr. Joseph Hewitt, moderator: Vice President for Policy, Learning & Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
4:00pm – 5:00pm: Afternoon Keynote: Fireside Chat with Darren Walker
Darren Walker: President, Ford Foundation
Uzra Zeya, moderator: President, Alliance for Peacebuilding
3. A Conversation with Belarusian Opposition Leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | December 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Belarus has been rocked by mass protests since its longtime authoritarian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, claimed victory in the country’s rigged August 9 presidential election. After being forced to flee the country due to threats to her family, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya—widely recognized by the international community as the real winner of the election—has led the Belarusian opposition movement while conducting an international campaign to rally support for the Belarusian people in their peaceful protests to remove Lukashenka from power. With firm backing from Russian President Vladimir Putin and an inability to keep protesters from filling the streets each week, Lukashenka and his security forces have illegally detained, beaten, and tortured Belarusians for demonstrating against his government. Tsikhanouskaya has fought for the advancement of self-determination, human rights, and freedom in Belarus, and is the recipient of the European Union’s Sakharov Prize, the bloc’s top human rights award. Today, Tsikhanouskaya continues to lead the Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power, recognized by EU lawmakers as the legitimate representative of the Belarusian people.
Speakers:
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya: Belarusian Opposition Leader
4. Responding to Venezuela’s Parliamentary Elections | December 7, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
On December 6th, the Maduro regime will hold National Assembly elections despite lacking adequate electoral conditions. Though many countries will not recognize the results of these elections, the regime is nevertheless expected to replace the current opposition-led National Assembly with the newly elected legislators on January 5th.
In the wake of these elections, the international community will have two important decisions to make. States will decide whether and how to uphold the legitimacy of the Venezuelan interim government, which derives its legitimacy from the current National Assembly. States will also decide whether and how to continue recognizing the 2015-2020 National Assembly, which could have its mandate extended if there is no legitimately elected legislature to take its place. These decisions will impact the Interim Government’s representation abroad, determining the extent to which the Venezuelan opposition can continue to safeguard external assets, protect Venezuela’s resources, oversee humanitarian assistance, denounce human rights violations, and facilitate a peaceful democratic transition.
Speakers
Carrie Filipetti: Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cuba and Venezuela, U.S. Department of State
José Ignacio Hernández: Former Special Prosecutor of the Venezuela Interim Government
Michael Grant: Assistant Deputy Minister for the Americas, Global Affairs Canada
5. Understanding a Year of Political Turmoil in and Around Russia | December 8, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
A constitutional overhaul. Protests in Khabarovsk and a flawed election in Belarus. An anemic economy and a raging pandemic. A poisoned opposition leader. Turkish forces deployed in Azerbaijan, Russia’s ‘near abroad.’ For the Kremlin, 2020 was supposed to be a triumphant year but it rapidly transformed into one of deep uncertainty and malaise. How should we interpret all of these events? As rumors circulate in Moscow questioning President Putin’s longevity as Russia’s leader, is the regime stable? Where is public opinion trending ahead of the consequential 2021 Duma elections? How do a younger generation view Russia’s future? And, what does all of this mean for Europe and the incoming Biden administration?
Speakers
Denis Volkov: Deputy Director, Levada Center
Andrei Kolesnikov: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Moscow Center
Ernest Wyciszkiewicz: Director, Centre for Polish-Russian Dialogue and Understanding
6. Five Years Later: UNSCR 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security | December 8, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
December 9 will mark five years since the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace, and Security (YPS). UNSCR 2250 was a milestone in the international community’s affirmation that youth play a significant role in realizing global peace and security. While youth have previously been depicted as victims, targets, or perpetrators of violent conflict, UNSCR 2250 represented a shift in discourse toward youth as peacebuilders and agents of change capable of preventing, mitigating, and resolving conflict in their communities.
Studies have demonstrated that including and partnering with young people helps foster a more sustainable peace. However, despite continued support from the U.N., and grassroots efforts to encourage inclusive representation of youth in decision making, there remain structural barriers that prevent youth from contributing to YPS on national, regional, and local levels.
Join USIP for a discussion with the co-chair of the Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security and two youth peacebuilders as they reflect on the tangible progress that has been made on the YPS agenda since the passage of Resolution 2250, as well as the challenges to effective implementation of the agenda around the world.
Speakers:
David Yang, welcoming remarks: Vice President, Applied Conflict Transformation Center, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lorena Gómez Ramírez: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Cécile Mazzacurati: Head, Secretariat on Youth, Peace and Security, United Nations Population Fund; Co-chair, Global Coalition on Youth, Peace, and Security
Mridul Upadhyay: USIP Generation Change Fellow; USIP Youth Advisory Council Member
Rebecca Ebenezer-Abiola, moderator: Program Officer, Curriculum and Training Design, U.S. Institute of Peace
7. Belarus: Is the Tide Turning? | December 8, 2020 | 12:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The democratic revolution in Belarus has outlasted expectations despite mass detentions, torture of democratic activists, and crackdowns on independent media perpetrated by dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime. Since demonstrations began in August, the United States and European Union have each condemned the state’s violent treatment of protestors while expanding sanctions against Lukashenka and his cronies. But with financial and security assistance from the Kremlin propping up the authoritarian regime, Congress and the incoming Biden administration must do more to support the Belarusian people in their struggle for freedom and democracy.
Speakers
Ambassador John Herbst: director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Franak Viačorka: nonresident fellow at the Eurasia Center; adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Dr. Michael Carpenter: nonresident senior fellow at the Eurasia Center; senior director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement
Melinda Haring, moderator: deputy director of the Eurasia Center
8. Lessons from Afar: Anti-Apartheid, the Arab Spring, and the Path Forward | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Carnegie Endowment of Peace | Register Here
The anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa captured the world’s attention during the latter half of the 20th century, just as the Arab Spring did in the early 21st. Precisely three decades after Nelson Mandela’s release from prison and a decade from the start of the Arab Spring, what lessons can we draw from South Africa as the Middle East continues to seek stability? And as people across the world confront rising authoritarianism, how can these important moments in history be guiding lights for lasting change?
Speakers
H. A. Hellyer: senior associate fellow and scholar at the Royal United Services Institute in London; nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Shafiq Morton: an award-winning Cape Town-based journalist
Ebrahim Rasool: former Ambassador of South Africa to the United States
Zaha Hassan: human rights lawyer, visiting fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
9. How Movements Fight Corruption | December 9, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:15 AM ET | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In the fight against corruption, civil society is often at the forefront of advancing innovative plans and solutions to increase government transparency and accountability and ultimately root out graft across different sectors. The urgent global response to the COVID-19 pandemic makes this function of civil society all the more crucial, as the same measures meant to stem the pandemic’s devastating health and economic effects also heighten the risk of corruption. As the world celebrates International Anti-Corruption Day, it’s important to elevate the voices of civil society leaders and movements working diligently to stifle and prevent corruption—as well as address the challenges they face.
Join USIP for a discussion on these citizen and movement efforts, including those in Guatemala, Ukraine, and Zimbabwe. This event will feature activists, scholars of nonviolent action, and international donors to explore the various ways bottom-up pressure can be used to make governments more open, hold leaders accountable, and prevent and curb corruption. This conversation will also draw insights from a series of USIP Special Reports, products of a multi-year research project in six different countries, to provide lessons on how policymakers and international actors can best support movements working to advance transparency and accountability.
Speakers:
Gladys Kudzaishe Hlatywayo: Secretary for International Relations, MDC Alliance
Olena Tregub: Secretary General, Independent Defence Anti-Corruption Committee, Transparency International
Walter Flores: Principal Advisor, Center for Studies for Equity and Governance in Health Systems
Bryan Sims: Senior Manager of Peacebuilding, Humanity United
Shaazka Beyerle, moderator: Senior Fellow, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center, George Mason University
10. What does Aung San Suu Kyi’s Electoral Success Mean for Myanmar? | December 9, 2020 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The governing National League for Democracy won a stunning victory in Myanmar’s recent election. Supporters claim the NLD’s strong showing represents an endorsement of Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership. Critics point to flaws in the electoral process, including censorship of NLD opponents and disenfranchisement of Rohingyas and other ethnic minorities. How will the NLD’s mandate affect democratic development and progress in the peace process? How should the incoming Biden administration respond to Myanmar?
Speakers
Scot Marciel: Former US Ambassador to Myanmar (2016-20); Visiting Practitioner Fellow on Southeast Asia, Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University
Mary Callahan: Associate Professor of International Studies from the University of Washington.
William Wise, moderator: Non-Resident Fellow and Chair, Southeast Asia Forum, Stimson Center
11. Lessons Learned for Afghanistan from El Salvador’s Peace Process | December 10, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban began in Doha, Qatar in September 2020, providing an unprecedented opportunity for peace after forty years of conflict and war. As these critical negotiations unfold, it is important to consider historical examples of countries who have successfully overcome seemingly intractable conflicts to forge peace.
This event will highlight important lessons from El Salvador’s peace process in order to provide insight into the ongoing Afghan peace talks. While the conditions are significantly different than those in Afghanistan, the peace process to end the civil war in El Salvador can provide key lessons for Afghanistan on complex peace negotiations by highlighting both the successes and challenges of their peace process.
Speakers
Ambassador Anne Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of Near Eastern Affairs (2013-2017) and Ambassador to El Salvador (1997-2000)
Ambassador Álvaro de Soto: Former UN Secretary-General’s Representative for El Salvador peace negotiations
General Mauricio “Chato” Vargas: Congressman, San Salvador, El Salvador
Ambassador Ruben Zamora: Former Salvadoran Ambassador to the United Nations (2014-2017) and Salvadoran Ambassador to the United States (2013-2014)
12. 50 Years of the Assad Dynasty | December 10, 2020 | 2:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
On November 13, 1970, Syria witnessed its last of many coups following its 1946 independence from the French. Fifty years later, the country remains led by a dynasty that has outlasted not only nine American presidents, but has also managed to maintain its iron grip over Syria while surrounding regimes have successively succumbed to regional upheaval.
This panel will reflect on the Assad family’s impact on Syria and the region, its relationship with the United States, and what the future might hold for the family and the regime.
Agenda:
Opening remarks
William Wechsler: Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council
Ibrahim Al-Assil: Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute
Rahaf Aldoughli: Lecturer in Middle East and North African Studies, Lancaster University
Steven Heydemann: Janet Wright Ketcham 1953 Chair in Middle East Studies, Smith College
Joseph Bahout: Director, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Rima Maktabi, moderator: UK Bureau Chief, Al Arabiya News Channel
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Stevenson’s army, December 6
Peter Beinart disparages the goal of American foreign policy leadership.
The Hill says maybe the polls weren’t so wrong.
WaPo writer says NDAA offers an alternative China policy.
Study blames diplomats’ illnesses on microwaves.
I’d forgotten how close Congress came to abolishing electoral college in 1969. WaPo tells the story.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences.
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Stevenson’s army, December 5
US is ending 5 cultural exchange programs with China, calling them propaganda.
Trump fires Defense Business Board, puts Lewandowski [!] and other loyalists on.
Administration announces US troop withdrawal from Somalia.
New documentary on VPs includes Biden explanation of his doubts on Bin Laden raid.
CRS has newly updated report on Special Operations Forces.
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Balkans policy recommendations for the Biden Administration
FULL COMMITTEE HEARING NOTICE
COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
WASHINGTON, DC 20515-6128
Eliot L. Engel (D-NY), Chairman
REVISED
December 4, 2020
TO: MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
You are respectfully requested to attend an OPEN hearing of the Committee on Foreign Affairs to be held in Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building.
FULL COMMITTEE HEARING NOTICE
COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
WASHINGTON, DC 20515-6128
Eliot L. Engel (D-NY), Chairman
REVISED
December 4, 2020
TO: MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS
You are respectfully requested to attend an OPEN hearing of the Committee on Foreign Affairs to be held in Room 2172 of the Rayburn House Office Building. Pursuant to H. Res. 965, Members who wish to participate remotely may do so via Cisco WebEx. The hearing is available by live webcast on the Committee website at https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/:
DATE: Tuesday, December 8, 2020
TIME: 10:00 a.m., EST
LOCATION: 2172 Rayburn House Office Building
SUBJECT: The Balkans: Policy Recommendations for the Next Administration
WITNESS: The Honorable Madeleine K. Albright
(Former Secretary of State)
Daniel Serwer, Ph.D.
Director, American Foreign Policy
Director, Conflict Management
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
Mr. Janusz Bugajksi
Senior Fellow
The Jamestown Foundation
*NOTE: Witnesses have been added
**NOTE: Further witnesses may be added.
By Direction of the Chairman
The Committee on Foreign Affairs seeks to make its facilities accessible to persons with disabilities. If you are in need of special accommodations, please call 202/225-5021 at least four business days in advance of the event, whenever practicable. Questions with regard to special accommodations in general
PS: Here is the link for the Hearing: https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=23FDB8BF-6A7B-4017-A2B8-D5D588DDCD8B
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