Secretary of State Pompeo tweeted this today:
We’re so much safer today than four years ago. Over the coming days, I’m going to lay out the mission set, the huge wins, personal stories, and a lot more. Just me, Mike.
He can tell as many personal stories as he likes, the facts on America’s safety are clear:
- Iran is closer to having all the material and technology required for nuclear weapons than ever before, due to US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The best Joe Biden can hope for is a return to where we were in January 2017: Iranian compliance with nuclear limits as well as US relief of sanctions.
- North Korea has progressed in both building nuclear weapons and the means of delivering them. There is no longer any doubt about its capacity to target US troops and allies throughout the Asia Pacific, and likely also the US mainland.
- Russia has happily pocketed the President’s often expressed softness and continued to try to cause as much trouble for the US as possible in Ukraine, the Balkans, the Baltics, Turkey, and elsewhere while threatening the US with new strategic weapons.
- Venezuela is still ruled by Nicolas Maduro, who Trump wanted out in favor of Juan Guaido. An unfree and unfair election won by Maduro’s allies has ended Guaido’s quest to be recognized as the legitimate president. Venezuela is now firmly allied with Russia and Iran.
- Afghanistan is negotiating with the Taliban, but Trump’s premature announcement of withdrawal of American troops there has imperiled the negotiations and limited US influence over the outcome.
- Iraq has likewise seen a premature announcement of withdrawal of some American troops, emboldening Iran’s proxies there and weakening its government.
- Israel has normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, but has done nothing to resolve the Palestinian issue. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, Israel’s continuing construction of settlements on the West Bank, and Trump’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty in Western Sahara have put the US at odds with much of the world.
- The United Kingdom has completed its withdrawal from the European Union, where its influence was often vital to US interests. Trump encouraged Brexit, which will leave America’s closest ally weakened and isolated.
- China has failed to fulfill its commitment to purchase more US exports and is reviving economically much more quickly than the US, which remains trapped in a Covid-19 induced recession. Trump’s efforts to block Tik Tok and other Chinese software have amounted to nothing. A massive Chinese-sponsored free trade pact in Asia threatens US prospects there, as do the growing capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army.
- Latin America and Africa are in the grips of the epidemic and will find it difficult to recover, incentivizing more migrants to the US and Europe. The much-touted border wall, which Mexico refused to pay for, is mostly replacing existing fencing and will do little or nothing to limit migration. Trump famously labelled African countries “shitholes,” discounting the enormous economic potential of its almost 1.4 billion people, still rapidly rising in both numbers and purchasing power.
I’ll grant that relations with India, ruled by an ethnic nationalist, have improved, but that hardly compensates for the decline in relations with European allies (especially Turkey), South Korea, and Japan.
No one should expect Biden to fix all these things right away. Some may be irreparable. But we have every reason to think we’ll be much safer four years from now than we are today. Don’t expect Mike Pompeo to acknowledge that. He is living in a world entirely divorced from reality.