peacefare.net

Serbia needs to get on the right side of history

Saša Janković, runner-up at the latest Presidential elections in the Republic of Serbia (2017), writes in Danas:

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has made an unnecessary and inappropriate personal gamble with national interests, participating in a campaign of one candidate in the US presidential elections. To make the case even worse, his candidate lost. This is not the first time he has made this mistake. But unlike when he supported Hillary Clinton, this time the consequences will be severe. This was the drop that flooded the cup and his actions will affect the whole country negatively.

At the recent hearing of the American House Committee on Foreign Affairs, likely perspectives of the new American policy towards the Western Balkans were heard. Serbia – or more accurately put – the kind of influence it exercises in the region was defined as a problem. The new American administration will no longer tolerate Serbia making trouble in Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia… nor anywhere else in the Region.

If and when Vučić loses support from Washington, he will have no other shield to hide behind – he has wasted them all already.

The U-turn away from the EU (to which, in fact, he never aspired) will now, unlike previously, hit back.  The EU and US are beginning to coordinate their foreign policies again and Washington will not continue compensating for heavy messages from Brussels, as in the previous years. The revival of US – EU cooperation effectively closes the space for Vučić to continue manipulating them against each other.

As for the Russian Federation, Maria Zakharova’s public (and close to vulgar) mockery of the Vučić’s overall position in the Washington agreement (the infamous “Sharon Stone tweet”), revealed Moscow’s attitude towards his troubles. If the Kremlin interferes in the Region, it is in pursuit of Russian interests, not Vučić’s, nor Serbia’s.

Finally, China: if anyone believed Vučić when he claimed (including on billboards throughout Belgrade) that Xi Jinping is his “brother” and will shower Serbia with investments, flying cars, weaponry and protection of all kinds, then we deserve whatever is thrown at us, don’t we?

It is no secret anymore that changes are being considered to the Dayton Agreements. Both entities, including Republika Srpska, could easily lose the position of “state within a state.” That status, which could have been used constructively and as an advantage, Serbian and Croatian political leaders (ab)used as a rope around the neck of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).  Bosniak leaders didn’t help either, constantly playing victims.

The outcome? A quarter of a century after the war, the citizens of BiH do not have a functional state. Instead, the region has a continuing challenge, despite the lies of politicians from Serbia and Croatia that, as guarantors of the Dayton Agreement, they will support the integrity and sovereignty of BiH. In the meantime, Serbs in Bosnia developed very strong feelings for Republika Srpska.

Republika Srpska is not its most powerful and visible politician, Milorad Dodik. But Dodik, in cooperation with the authorities from Belgrade, ruined the opportunity for the Serbian entity to be constructive and favored by the world. After Vučić has lost his latest gamble, if and when the structure of BiH is changed the question is how much of Republika Srpska’s jurisdiction will remain. He broke so many promises that many in the West have become determined not to let him continue fooling them.

Another challenge, its solution long overdue, is Kosovo. The US and the EU will now insist, without further delay, on a comprehensive agreement between Belgrade and Pristina. Serbia should actively influence its content with its proposals, but Vučić’s populist regime abstains so that it can decline any responsibility for the outcome and blame it on others. His oppressed political opposition acts the same way.

There was just one proposal from the side of the opposition that didn’t include formal recognition of independence and still had some chance to be considered internationally.* It was swiftly declared treasonous by both the Vučić’s regime and the rest of the opposition. Since then, three years ago, neither the regime nor the opposition has proposed what to do.

Instead, some opposition leaders consider that putting forward a proposal would provide Vučić with an opportunity to blame them for the loss of Kosovo, using his propaganda machine. And he would, the record shows. So they choose to wait for the West to force Vučić into making a move, so that they can accuse him of treason and topple him. In the meantime, they join him in inspiring cheap nationalist feelings, needed to help their plan – which in fact mirrors his own.

Other opposition leaders silently agree with Vučić’s tactics of blackmailing everybody, inside and out, with Kosovo and Republika Srpska, with a faint view of the “Greater Serbia” somewhere down the road. They would only do it “faster, stronger, better” (an electoral slogan of Vučić’s own party).

The ultimate result is that the agreement on Kosovo will be written by foreign diplomats, without a substantive role of Serbia. Vučić’s regime and the opposition (with lesser responsibility but in an equal manner) are depriving Serbia of influence on the decision that deeply concerns national interests.

The US and the EU, of course, know that changes in BiH and Kosovo are high-risk operations. They will not make the mistake of conducting them without first weakening those who, for fear of losing their power, can sabotage changes by lighting fires in the region. Therefore the first cracks in the grandiose Vučić’s media image outside and inside of Serbia begin to appear. Cracks begin to show in Vučić’s own party, too – Nebojša Stefanović (for years, Vučić’s most trusted aide) is doing what Vučić, advised and used to do in the extremist Serbian Radical Party before he split it with other dissidents to establish the Serbian Progressive Party. Surely, Vučić recognizes the scenario, working against him now.

No injustice inflicted there on Vučić – what brought him up will pull him down. But the citizens of Serbia will suffer – Vučić’s party captured their state and will leave it in scraps. Not only economically, institutionally and legally, but also emotionally – he deprived the nation of self-respect and hope. Furthermore, Vučić will probably not behave like Kosovo’s Thaci and resign from the presidential post to avoid dragging his country into the dirt. No matter how hard one tries to differentiate between Vučić’s regime and Serbia, when he gets under more serious international criticism and, possibly, restrictive measures, that will not be possible.

So, in the world’s eyes, Serbia will once again be seen as a source of problems and a nation that, for the second time in only two decades, allowed a destructive autocrat to gain a position of unlimited power. Not yet fully recovered from the scars left by Milosevic, Serbia will get new ones. From a symbol of freedom, anti-fascism, vitality and capacity to stand united with South Slavic peoples in a strong and prosperous alliance, to a powerless, excommunicated, humiliated and problematic country that has lost its sense of direction and lags behind – the picture will be daunting and generations of Serbians will carry its shadow as a burden. No one can harm Serbian national interests as Serbian nationalists can.

There is a better way. Serbia should identify itself within the trinity of 1) universal human and civil values, 2) positive elements of our national identity, and 3) Western political culture. We are first human beings and free individuals, citizens with dignity and responsibilities to ourselves and the world we live in. Then we are the Serbs – a freedom-loving, friendly, and brave Slavic nation. Finally, we firmly belong to the civilization of Western democracies!

Saint Sava pointed Serbian religion (and partly spirituality) to the East, towards our Orthodox Slavic brothers. But his brother Stefan, the first crowned ruler of Serbia, not accidentally and not without an agreement with his brother, firmly oriented the Serbian state towards the West. In 1217 he sought and received the first Serbian crown from the Pope, not from the Patriarch in the East (which was an option at the time). Such are the foundations of our identity, which is still the direction for our progress. Every detour costs us lost generations and underdevelopment. Shortcomings of Western democracy, which we speak of constantly as “sour grapes,” we can improve upon only after we master its basics. We must work honestly and never again look for shortcuts. Long live Serbia!

*The proposal included the following:

1. Serbia agrees with (and in fact actively supports) the membership of Kosovo in all international organizations, including the UN. Serbia will not ask for any restrictions or create any obstacles for Kosovo to fully avail itself of every right, obligation, or interest arising from such membership. This attitude of Serbia does not mean and can not be used as proof that it formally recognizes the independence of Kosovo, nor Serbia will be conditioned in any way to do so.

2. The sites of the Serbian Orthodox Church of major historical and religious importance (the key monasteries and churches) shall be given extraterritorial status and left to be self-governed by the Church authorities (similar to the examples of monasteries in Mount Athos in Greece, or the Vatican in Rome).

3. Local self-governance in North Mitrovica and the Association of Serbian Municipalities shall be established, not to be used to the detriment of the authority of Pristina over the whole territory of Kosovo.

4. Individual and collective human rights of Serbs shall be guaranteed at the highest level.

5. Property rights shall be guaranteed in line with international norms and standards.

6. The Agreement shall be valid for 30 years. If before the expiry of that term a new one is not reached, it shall be automatically prolonged for the next 30 years, and so on.