Changing of the guard: Montenegro and the US

Biljana Jovićević of Antenna M asked me some questions yesterday, prompted by a previous interview where I was cited as having praised Dritan Abazovic, the current deputy prime minister of Montenegro. I replied:

Q: Having in mind your respective field of expertise I am quite sure that you are familiar with the current political situation in Montenegro. Could you please be so kind to give us your assessment of new unfolding events in Montenegro in the last few months?

A: My sense is that pro-Russian and pro-Serbia forces dominate the new Montenegro government. Decision-making roles have gone predominantly to ethnonationalists, including in the security sector. The Serbian Orthodox Church is pleased and has reason to be. There is no sign of a technocratic government.

Q: In your recent statement for a Kosovo media you have said that you would like to see in Kosovo a civic option something like Montenegrin URA lead by now VP Dritan Abazović, but that is not possible because of the mostly ethnic segregation. Do you believe that URA and Mr. Abazović currently plays a constructive role in Montenegro society–which is seen by many now–as an enabler of the extreme right wing, clerical Government?

Q: I said I would like to see Kosovo with a civic option. The interviewer mentioned URA. I did not. URA has not fulfilled promises to insist on a truly technocratic government, to restrain ethnonationalist forces, and to bring minorities into the coalition. I don’t see URA as successful in fulfilling the role of a civic option.

A: Without any doubt Montenegro for a long time needed changes and reform, most of all to fight against corruption, nepotism and cronyism. But new right wing government, and let’s not forget with pro-Russian orientation–supported by URA, certainly is not an expert government. For the critics–what they show up until now is the same pattern of behavior as their predecessors regarding nepotism and cronyism. And apart from that they are in especially fast mode of implementing Serbian nationalist agenda in Montenegro. Do you believe that this kind of changes can bring Montenegro closer to the EU ?

A: No. Montenegro’s current course will slow its progress toward the EU as well as raise doubts within NATO whether Podgorica can be trusted.

Q: President -elect Biden, VP Harris and his administration will take the oath tomorrow–hopefully if the US manage to escape any dramatic or scary scenery. In that regard I have few more questions for you: having in mind the scale of a crisis that we are witnessing in the US and difficult job in front on Biden administration, when is it realistic to expect for them to become more engaged on Balkans and in which direction?

A: It will be months before the people concerned with the Balkans are put in place and the Europeans are consulted on the way forward. I would advise patience.

Q: Hardly that in this unprecedented time in the US Balkans can be among priorities, but Mr. Biden’s nominees for the State Department are people with great knowledge about this part of the world, so what should be their first steps on Balkans in your opinion?

A: I hope they will first consult with the Europeans and develop a common, agreed platform for the Balkans. When Brussels and Washington act in unison, good things happen. Biden will prefer that to Trump’s unilateralist approach.

Q: I had followed your hearing last month in the House committee for foreign relations, you were there with the Secretary Albright and with Mr. Bugajski and you offered recommendations for Balkans. Although focus was on Kosovo and Bosnia, much of the talk was about Serbia as well. But you had barely mentioned Montenegro and if I remember correctly only you mentioned that like in Bosnia and Kosovo–Serbia now trying to destabilize and Montenegro–but that was all. I was quite surprised.

A: I said on that occasion what I thought was most important: Belgrade is doing things to destabilize Montenegro. I have no problem with an opposition coming to power, but I would hope to see a pro-NATO, pro-EU government with the support of minorities.

Q: And in the and – after everything that has happened in the US in last four years (with impact on the whole world) and as we are approaching possible culmination with right wing white nationalist who are threatening with riot in all 50 states–what is your take about rising right wing parties and fringes groups all around world, their infiltrations in mainstream and consequence that we are facing? If the US is barely dealing with it, what can we expect in places like Balkans? How to fight back ?

A: We are all going to be called upon to defend democracy from right wing extremists and ethnonationalists who think they should be privileged to govern. The real possibility of alternation in power is essential to democracy, but if the alternation brings to power people who are anti-democratic, that is a big problem.