Thai protests make progress, but…

In 2020, a youth-led protest movement began to spread across Thailand as protestors called for fundamental political change in the Kingdom, including a new election, constitution and reforms to the structure of the monarchy. On January 19, the United States Institute of Peace convened a roundtable to discuss the political dynamics of the movement, its future, and the potential for the US government to craft a constructive response. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:

Brian Harding (Moderator): Senior Expert, Southeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace

Rattaphol “Ahn” Onsanit: Thai Service Chief, Voice of America

Penchan Phoborisut: Assistant Professor, California State University, Fullerton

Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace

Desmond Walton: Senior Director, BowerGroupAsia; U.S. Army Colonel (ret.) and former U.S. Defense Attaché to Thailand

Twitter enables the movement

Throughout 2020–and continuing into 2021–a youth-led pro-democracy movement has emerged across Thailand. While the largest demonstrations have largely been concentrated in Bangkok, Onsanit notes that the emergence of symbolic protests in schools throughout the countryside indicates that the movement is more generational and ideological than it is geographic.

Social media has largely driven the movement’s momentum. Phoborisut points to the relatively high saturation of Twitter among the Thai as a particularly critical factor. Activists have used hashtags such as #whatshappeninginthailand to raise awareness for their campaign, while protestors have also used Twitter to create transnational networks with activists in foreign countries. In particular, the hashtags #milkteaalliance and #howtomob have connected Thai protestors with activists in Hong Kong, who have shared lessons learned and tactical advice from their own experiences with protests.

Positive prospects, but no guarantees

According to Pinckney, two elements of the Thai protest movement suggest positive prospects for the future. First, the movement has exhibited the tactical flexibility typical of most successful protests. By switching between mass demonstrations and dispersed tactics such as the display of banners, hand gestures, and flash mobs–a necessity due to both government repression and the COVID-19 pandemic–the movement has continued to place pressure on King Vajiralongkorn despite the trying times. Second, the movement to date has managed to largely remain nonviolent. As a result, protestors maintain popular legitimacy while government repression has sparked widespread public backlash, leading to the possibility of a more broad-based movement in the future.

However, Pinckney cautions that activists should not count on the ability of social media to generate international awareness and support in the long-term. As protests in other countries have demonstrated, international attention can quickly waver without durable, institutional commitments to the movement. Moreover, Onsanit also warns that protest leaders have so far shown an unwillingness to compromise, diminishing the prospects for a negotiated agreement between activists and the monarchy.

Limits on US support

In the past, the US government has consistently prioritized security and economic issues over political issues when developing its relationship with Thailand. The political dimension, which has included coup attempts, growing authoritarian tendencies, and human rights abuses, has been the shakiest pillar of the US-Thai relationship long before the current wave of protests. Given this history, Walton suggests that the incoming Biden administration is more likely to support reform-oriented dialogue rather than an anti-monarchy agenda. Thai activists’ current refusal to negotiate could thus complicate the US response to the protests.

Nevertheless, he also proposes concrete steps that the new administration can take to maximize its decision-making ability. First, he recommends returning to career ambassadors in Thailand with deep knowledge of the country and region. Second, the Biden administration should reconcile differences between the idealists and pragmatists in his administration as the Thai monarchy can weaponize inconsistencies in US foreign policy around the world to diminish America’s ability to support protests in Thailand. Ultimately, then, US influence will hinge on a combination of the outcome of ideological competition within the movement and strategic decision-making by the U.S.

To watch the event in full, please click here.